The Race for the No. 1 Pick Culminates in Week 18
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues, the race to the No. 1 pick, Courtland Sutton and Jaleel McLaughlin props, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Ahhhh Week 18, the football equivalent of the last Christmas leftover in the back of your fridge. No one wants it, yet it gets consumed every single time despite more than likely being pretty bad for your health.
With most of the football world’s attention laser-focused on tonight’s clash between the Vikings and Lions for the conference’s top seed, there’s another hotly contested spot up for grabs—the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
NFL’s Race To The Bottom:
Per NFL.com, selection order for teams with identical records is determined “by strength of schedule—the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick. If teams have the same strength of schedule, division or conference tiebreakers are applied. If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, or ties still exist between teams of different conferences, ties will be broken the following tie-breaking method:”
- New England Patriots (3-13) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-3): .467 SOS
- Tennessee Titans (3-13) vs. Houston Texans (9-7): .515 SOS
- Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5): .540 SOS
- New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3): .551 SOS
If my math is correct, all four opponents have too many wins for anyone to leapfrog the order without a loss in front of them.
So if the Patriots lose, they pick first. Done deal. The Titans can only get the top choice with losses by Houston and Buffalo. Cleveland needs to lose in Baltimore, as well as Tennessee and New England to emerge victorious. After earning their third win last weekend, the Giants must lose to Philly’s backups plus a small miracle—all three of NE, TEN, and CLE to hit on the moneyline (+10450 odds for NYG’s chances if any psychos out there are wondering).
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball: Dollars and Incentives
- No Cap: The McLaughlin Group
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.
Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🤝 Will Davante Adams help Aaron Rodgers join the 500 Club? Anytime TD bets for Week 18.
🤑 The top plays for today’s NFL DFS slate. See what our projections say.
5️⃣ The top-5 props of Week 18 … and Underdog Pick’ems, too.
🤭 Psst … one more reminder—Guillotine Leagues are live for the playoffs.
🏈 Ohio State-Texas. Notre Dame-Penn State. Get a jump on the College Football Playoff Semifinals.
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Dollars and Incentives
THE BET: Courtland Sutton O77.5 Receiving Yards (-115) BET365
Easily the NFL’s worst-kept secret, each year presents a ton of opportunities to follow the money via contract incentives. However, not all of these situations are created equal—so I divvied up some of the more popular plays into whether or not they’re worth our time and money.
I Have My Doubts: Lay Off These Popular Bonuses
J.K. Dobbins, RB, LAC: 58 rushing yards shy of a $150K bump—Given the disparity in LA’s offensive performance with and without Dobbins, I’d be shocked if Jim Harbaugh risks his only starting RB (Gus Edwards is already out with an ankle injury) with nothing to gain on the eve of the playoffs. Not to get all preachy on my soapbox here, but the Chargers need to pay this man his bonus to sit. Remember, J.K. took just $50K in guaranteed money to prove his worth. I doubt he gets the dozen carries needed with a prop line currently set at 40.5.
Mike Evans, WR, TB: 5 catches and 85 yards receiving in Week 18 means $3M on top of his 2025 salary—Easily this weekend’s most popular prop, therein lies the rub. The public’s chasing Evans’ props today even though he can earn his money without making any for us. The veteran WR’s lines currently sit at 6.5 and 101.5, respectively, with juice attached to both. Considering how the Bucs (and the Saints for that matter) are playing, I think the plug gets pulled after the milestones… but before the props cash.
Let It Ride:
Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN: 82 receiving yards away from the final $500K to max out a $2 million bonus—Not only did Andy Reid announce he’s sitting starters on both sides of the ball, Denver’s still fighting for its postseason life. Expect the Broncos to stay on course, foot on the pedal. DEN’s averaging just shy of 32 PPG over its last six contests, yet Sutton’s yardage line is strangely sitting right below the milestone between 78-80 receiving yards. I have a hard time seeing Bo Nix let his top wideout fall short if they get within striking distance of the goal.
Alexander Mattison, RB, LV: 8 more catches doubles his $125K reception bonus this season—My favorite longshot is not listed yet, so file this one under bonus content for now. Yes, 8 catches feels lofty for an RB. No denying that part. However, the Raiders have little else at stake and Ameer Abdullah, Vegas’ usual pass catcher from the backfield, is already listed out. Aidan O’Connell’s still playing for his future, targeting RBs on over 27% of attempts since getting back under center Week 16.
No Cap🏈🧢—The McLaughlin Group
THE BET: Jaleel McLaughlin Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-115) BET365
Alert the presses! Is finding a player prop where Freedman and I agree on an over enough of an argument for everyone? Of course, I kid about Freedman being a wet blanket—his projections consistently rate among the best for being grounded so firmly in reality. Good advice isn’t always fun.
Anyway, there were so few spots I was even willing to bet on today given the weird and wonky circumstances, my eyes lit up when I found this one. Part of the upside from following this league 24/7 with a fine-toothed comb presents itself in utilization changes. Over the last few weeks of action, Jaleel McLaughlin basically supplanted Javonte Williams as Denver’s lead back in terms of touch share (image below).
Since the Broncos’ Week 14 bye, McLaughin has racked up an insane +45% target per route run so we should waltz into these 5 receiving yards by accidental snap share alone.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
Sharp Hunter: Will the Vikings Conquer the Lions?
Backup quarterbacks.
Contract incentives.
Questions about team motivation.
These are just some of the issues we’re dealing with as bettors in Week 18 across the NFL.
Thankfully, we can see where the sharp money is going in all those games at Sharp Hunter.
One of the games where there are no questions about motivation is Sunday night in Detroit as the Lions host the Vikings. Pretty simple for both teams—win the game and get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a bye. Or lose the game and play next week as the #5 seed.
This should be an awesome game with huge implications.
The Lions are 3-point home favorites in a game with a high total—56.5 in most places as of late Saturday.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter are betting on the underdog Vikings here—and we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.
In the final regular-season game of 2024, I’m right there and betting with the sharps.
And this is really a bet against the Lions' defense. They’ve allowed an average of 30 PPG over the last four weeks. Kevin O’Connell should have Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and Co. humming against a unit that is banged up and has not had a break since their Week 5 bye. The Vikings are sitting on a huge offensive night.
Jared Goff was almost perfect against the Vikings earlier this season (22-of-25, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs). He’ll have to match that against a blitzing Brian Flores defense that can make life hell on opposing quarterbacks.
Lions head coach Dan Campbell has struggled on short weeks with the Dolphins and Lions—just 3-8 SU in 11 games.
There’s a lot on the line Sunday night in Detroit. The sharps at Sharp Hunter want to back the road underdog in a year where home favorites have dominated.
I’m with the sharps—I’m betting the Vikings plus the points in what should be one of the best games of the season.
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