Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Packers Tame the Lions?
Geoff Ulrich delivers the Thursday Night Football Best Bets for Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, featuring analysis for betting, Underdog Pick'Em, and more.
Geoff Ulrich delivers the Thursday Night Football Best Bets and more for Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers.
The Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers meet in this Thursday Night Football matchup that has huge playoff and divisional implications.
Green Bay enters on a three-game winning streak and as the winners of seven of their last eight games. Jordan Love put together what was likely his best performance of the season last week against the Dolphins, throwing for 274 yards and 2 TDs, while completing 75% of his passes.
This week, he’ll face a Lions defense that is missing a ton of starters and allowed 3 passing TDs to rookie Caleb Williams, in what ended up being a very close game despite the Bears’ early missteps.
The Lions have been dealing with some injury issues, but through every bump they have managed to keep the ship straightened. They’re now 11-1 on the season and maintain a two-game lead on the 9-3 Packers, bt do have Minnesota nipping at their heels at 10-2.
Overall, the Lions' foundation on offense and defense has been built around the run. They’re fourth in DVOA per rush on defense and are third in DVOA per rush on offense. However, they’re also missing four starters on their defensive line and will be without a key part of their O-Line in Taylor Decker, which could affect the run game.
Love and Green Bay came into Detroit last season and beat the Lions in a similar spot in Week 12 (29-23). With the Packers looking healthier and Love peaking, they look like serious threats to repeat the feat this week.
So can Green Bay knock the Lions off their perch, or will the Detroit sweep the season series and move to 12-1? We’ll answer that and more as we dive into the spread, total and best props to target for betting, below.
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Lions -3.5 (-110; bet365) vs. Packers +3.5 (-115; bet365) 51.5
Injury notes:
Packers
OUT
Romeo Doubs WR
Lions
OUT
Josh Paschal DL
DJ Reader DT
Spread and Total
The Lions have major issues heading into Week 14. On top of losing starting linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez and Alex Anzalone, they’re also down three other defensive linemen in Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and D.J. Reader. That’s not great considering that the Packers have been running the ball well of late (9th in EPA per rush on offense), and have Josh Jacobs available to pound the ball between the tackles if they get a lead.
Green Bay will be without a few starters of its own, but looked terrific last week despite not having in the lineup Romeo Doubs nor Jaire Alexander, who will both miss this week’s game as well.
I took the Packers +3.5 at the start of the week, and placed the bet in our Free NFL Bet Tracker, fearing the Detroit injury report would be gruesome, and so far that fear has been realized. The +3.5 on Green Bay is still available with some juice at -115, but I would not be shocked to see the line move to 3.0 by kickoff.
As for the total, our game model has this matchup projected at 51.3, showing slight value on the under-51.5 line. With all of the defensive injuries, I’m personally staying off this line altogether.
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I break down the best props for this week’s matchup below.
Packers at Lions Best Bets
Christian Watson Anytime TD (+225; BetMGM)
- 50+ yards and a TD +300 (bet365)
- 70+ yards and a TD +425 (bet365)
I took the over on Watson’s line when it opened at 41.5. The matchup against CB’s Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold is a solid one. On top of having a multi-inch height advantage over both, Arnold and Davis are 4.5-4.55 guys from a speed perspective and will have their work cut out for them keeping up with the 6-foot-4 Watson, who ran a 4.36 out of college.
After a slow start, Watson has also looked better over his last few games and is starting to become more of the focal point of this offense once again. With Doubs out, he played nearly every snap vs. Miami and went for 150 yards on just 4 catches two games ago against the Bears.
His line has moved all the way to 48.5 after the news that Doubs would miss this game, so the early value has gone. However, given the matchup and how prolific a TD scorer Watson has been with Love as his QB (7 TDs in 20 regular-season games, 35% hit rate), the +225 (30% implied probability) for an anytime TD has some appeal as well.
On top of playing Watson’s regular over, I’ll be laddering some his alternate lines with an anytime TD bet to get exposure to what is a great upside spot for the Packers WR.
Longest Field Goal over 46.5 (-120; bet365)
I played this prop in the Lions’ last game on Thanksgiving and was rewarded with a Jake Bates 48-yard make to hit the over. Bates has a massive leg and is now 9-for-10 from 40+ yards and 5-for-5 from 50+ yards on the season.
Add in the fact that the Packers also have stability at the position in Brandon McManus, who also has plenty of leg and made a 51-yarder at Lambeau Field last week, and I see this line as a yard or two too short.
As long as the Lions are at home or in a dome, and the kicker on the other side is half-decent, I’ll likely play this in every Lions game from here to the end of the year—if the line stays at 46.5, and the over is available without a ton of juice.
Underdog 3-Way (8.96x multiplier)
- Christian Watson anytime TD
- David Montgomery Lower 13.5 rush attempts
- Tim Patrick Higher 24.5 receiving yards
I mentioned the reasoning on being bullish on a Watson anytime TD prop above. If you’re looking to play him in a Pick’Em lineup then I do like pairing his higher on 0.5 TDs on Underdog, with the higher on Tim Patrick 24.5 receiving yards.
Patrick’s line has barely moved this week, despite going for 48 yards on two catches against the Bears. He’s also playing a ton of snaps and should continue to get consistent downfield targeting with Kalif Raymond out. The Lions should also be passing more in a game where Watson finds the end zone, which not only helps Patrick’s ability to gain yards but may also hinder the ability for David Montgomery to get carries late in the game.
Montgomery took 21 carries last week but has gone for less than 13.5 carries in six of his last nine games. Given how well Green Bay’s rush defense has played of late and how well this correlates with the first two props, it made sense to add in as our third play.
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