TNF NFC West Battle: 49ers vs. Seahawks
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy, TNF 49ers vs. Seahawks takes center stage, a Brock Purdy prop, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Thursday Night Football Preview, SF (-3.5) at SEA: This should be a good one on deck tonight as the NFC West division-leading Seahawks host Kyle Shanahan’s disappointing (2-3) 49ers. I’ve watched every snap and while trying to figure out what to write, I shoved a pile of disorganized defensive notes to the side when it hit me like a suddenly obvious ton of bricks—sharing is caring.Seattle Seahawks D—From a macro perspective how can you not be impressed? Mike Macdonald has the ‘Hawks playing as an easy upper quartile unit both on tape and the spreadsheet. There’s no single style or staticity to their pre-snap formations (which I personally love), so opposing QBs never quite know what they’re going to see. Expect this type of mixture and level of disguise to be foundational going forward.
Seattle has successfully combined everything you can think of—man with zone, blitzes with dropbacks, and every variation of 4-6 DB alignment. It’s resulted in the league’s 7th-best pressure rate despite ranking bottom-10 in sending the blitz. The Seahawks tackle well, dominating weak competition for a solid month. That is, until the run D collapsed last week against the Giants, which is precisely where my focus is tonight. Jordan Mason (our consensus #16 player for fantasy this week) should see work early and often to test just that.
San Francisco 49ers D—Frustration is the operative term out in Frisco right now. Given expectations and roster returns, this Niner squad would’ve never guessed they could be two games below .500 a third of the way in. SF fans don’t want to hear it, but the fact is they’ve played pretty well on defense. Only one QB has passed for over 221 yards and we’re still waiting for an opposing RB to crack 90 yards on the ground. And, oh yeah, it doesn’t take a tape expert to know Fred Warner’s a game-wrecking beast.
I even tend to like the secondary's tendencies to swarm and impose splash plays, making it tough to complete the simplest pass. Perhaps playing a bit too soft in Cover-1 formations has gotten them torched thus far, but you know Shanny’s on top of this stuff—SF has cut its Cover-1 use each week for the last month from 28% now down to 17%.
How Does Our Model Feel About TNF?
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
- Sharp Hunter
Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Under The Influence
I’ve always been kind of weird and comfortable going against the grain. Honestly, most if not all the best trades I've ever made occurred under duress. As they say, “Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”
Philosophies aside, I’m almost nervous to admit having this game under its original total at 46.5. Since the opening, all money flooded in universally to the over, pushing it three full points as of writing. I guess I’m supposed to have a little more respect for Closing-Line Value (CLV) and the wisdom of the crowd. Look me in the eyes and tell me this doesn’t have all the hallmarks of a rock fight—quality division rivals battling for first place on a Thursday Night in front of a raucous crowd.
I won’t relitigate my case for both defenses to storm back on short rest after devastating losses. Needless to say, I think the public put the cart in front of the horse in terms of scoring. I don’t see the same back-and-forth explosives as the talking heads this time.
While I have to post a bet that exists on our current plane of reality, there’s nothing wrong with waiting in this situation. Given the current momentum to the over and time left until kickoff, it’s entirely plausible we close over 50. This contrarian trading technique is known as trailing prices—you may remember it as a building block earlier this season.
THE BET: SF/SEA Under 49.5 (-110) DraftKings
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 Claudia, Freedman, and Geoff break down 49ers-Seahawks on TNF and other Week 6 Best Bets.
📺 Claudia and Thor get in on the action with College Football Week 7 Best Bets.
🧐 Penn State-USC … Florida-Tennessee ... Thor Nystrom projects his Week 7 CFB Best Bets and Props.
🐷 Jayden Daniels stepping up vs. Ravens? Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca dive into Pigskin Pick’em for all 16 Week 6 games.
🔮 What sides are Freedman on in his Week 6 NFL Bets?
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️ —Sturdy, Purdy
Bet on football long enough and you’ll have your money on things you never imagined. I can only imagine the audible disgust had you told me this summer I’d be backing Brock Purdy’s rushing acumen. After all, the sophomore phenom finished near league lows at the position with a 3.6% scramble rate, good for only 1.6 total rushes per game.
Fast forward to Purdy’s 2024 rushing metrics and you may be demanding the same double-check as I did. The underwhelming 3.6% scramble rate from 2023 skyrocketed 245%, more than doubling his scramble-plus-carry average. In fact, Purdy’s 8.6% scramble rate is top-5 at the position. Crazy times, I know.
We’ve got two nice outs on this one. Seattle continues to post elevated pressure rates, which may flush Purdy toward the sticks. The other, more dastardly backdoor cash comes via kneeldowns if San Fran gets back on track and winds the clock down at the end. Check out our projections to get even more information.
THE BET: Brock Purdy Over 3.5 Rush Attempts (-115) DraftKings
Are the Niners The Sharp Side on TNF?
Divisional games in prime time are always a good thing—and we get one Thursday with the Seahawks hosting the 49ers. San Francisco is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total sitting at 49 at most books on Wednesday afternoon.
At Sharp Hunter, we are tracking and analyzing bets from sharp bettors every minute, on games in the NFL, CFB, and MLB.
Thursday night, we’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp score on the 49ers -3.5. It’s worth noting the sharps we’re tracking have been running hot—pushing the Broncos, Cardinals, and Chiefs in Week 5.
And I think they’re on the right side for TNF.
Yes, the Seattle D comes in ranked 10th in total DVOA, but they have benefited from playing the likes of Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Skylar Thompson, and Daniel Jones.
Yikes.
Plus, they come in banged up on the defensive side of the ball and are expected to be missing multiple starters. They are not as scary as their DVOA ranking.
The 49ers are a disappointing 2-3, but we know they’re talented. On offense, even without CMC, they have one of the better groups in the NFC. It’s a nice spot for George Kittle, catching a Seattle defense allowing the 5th-most yards-per-game to opposing TEs.
A trend in our favor? Sure! Thursday Night home teams are 10 games under .500 ATS (36-46) since 2019.
The Niners have won five in a row against the Seahawks, including four of those by double digits.
I’m riding the road favorite on TNF. Sounds like the sharps are, too.
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