Thursday Night Football Week 14 Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Patriots @ Steelers.

When it comes to this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup, I keep thinking back to one scene in Big Daddy. Adam Sandler meets “Frankenstein’s” teacher, and she tells him “I’ve had some smelly ones before, but your son is by far the smelliest.” It may not be an Academy Award-caliber movie, but it’s one of the Sand Man’s best films.

Anyway, we’ve had some smelly Thursday Night Football games before, but this one is by far the smelliest. The Patriots will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a game where the total sits at just 30.0 points. If this game does close at 30, it will be tied for the lowest total in any game since at least 2004.

Still, just because expectations are low doesn’t mean we can’t try to make some money. Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -6.0 (-110; BetMGM)
Total: 30.0
Moneylines: Patriots +220/Steelers -275

Saying the Patriots have had some issues offensively of late is like saying Oscar the Grouch had some housing issues. It doesn’t even begin to describe just how garbage the situation actually is.

They’ve scored seven points or fewer in three straight games, and they’ve tried both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback. Neither option has paid dividends, with the team ranking 28th in EPA/play over that time frame. For the year, they’re now dead last in points per game and 28th in yardage.

The Patriots have yet to confirm which quarterback will make the start vs. the Steelers in Week 14, but it seems likely that Zappe will get another opportunity. Jones has posted a 2-9 record in his 11 starts, and with the team in position to draft another quarterback in 2024, it makes sense to get an extended look at Zappe.

Dec 3, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, what we’ve seen from Zappe so far is not exactly promising. He’s averaged just 3.3 adjusted yards per attempt, which is far worse than Jones’ mark of 5.2. Among 49 QBs with at least 50 plays this season, Jones ranks 39th in EPA + CPOE composite, while Zappe is dead last.

Zappe took all the snaps at the position last week, and he was responsible for a shutout loss. It was the second time the Pats have been shutout this season, and they also managed their fourth-fewest yards in that contest. The Chargers have not had a strong defense – they’re 25th in EPA/play against – so that’s an extremely concerning result.

Making matters worse, running back Rhamondre Stevenson went down with an injury last week. He’s reportedly dealing with a high-ankle sprain and is expected to miss multiple weeks. That leaves Zeke Elliott to handle most of the RB duties.

Stevenson hasn’t been super efficient this season, but Elliott is definitely worse at this point in his career. With a Zappe-Elliott backfield, it’s hard to imagine the Pats finding any success against the Steelers’ stout defense.

On the other side, the Steelers have a key injury of their own. They’re going to have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback after Kenny Pickett was forced to undergo ankle surgery. The downgrade from Pickett to Trubisky might not be massive, but it’s still a downgrade: Pickett has averaged 6.2 adjusted yards per attempt this season, Trubisky 4.6. Trubisky couldn’t lead the Steelers to a single scoring drive last week vs. the Cardinals until late in the fourth quarter when the game was already decided.

Add it all up, and it’s easy to see why this total is threatening to dip below 30.0.

Best Bet: Under 30.5 (-115; FanDuel)

While this total is at 30.0 across most of the industry, there are still a few 30.5s available at the time of writing. If you can still find one, I would suggest locking it in while you still can. I was lucky enough to snag the under on 32.5 earlier this week – which you can find in our Bet Tracker – while Matthew Freedman grabbed the under on 34.5 on the look-ahead line. There’s obviously significantly less value with the current number, but I still think this game has the potential to go under.

Aside from all the offensive issues that these teams are facing, they both possess solid defenses. The Steelers rank sixth in the league in points per game, and while they’re not dominant from a yardage perspective, they specialize in the types of big plays that keep offenses out of the endzone. They’re 11th in the league in sacks per game and fifth in takeaways per game.

Meanwhile, the Patriots defense has been firing on all cylinders of late. They’ve made some history, becoming the first team since 1938 to allow 10 points or fewer in three straight games and lose each of them:

Overall, the Pats are now 1-3 when allowing 10 points or fewer this season, while the rest of the league is a perfect 53-0.

The low number on this game may scare you, but low totals have had no problem going under so far this season. Unders in games with a total of 38 points or less are 16-4-1 (+50.3% ROI), while the under has gone a perfect 3-0 on totals of 35.0 or fewer. Not only that, those three unders have covered by an average of 11.3 points per game. As I discussed with Freedman on Monday’s Early Lines podcast, the sportsbooks struggle to get the numbers low enough for these outlier teams.

I think this number has a really good chance to close below 30, so getting anything better than that offers some value. Money continues to pour in on the under – 90% of the tickets, 98% of the dollars (per the Action Network) – so the sharps and squares alike see value with it. Sometimes, we don’t need to overthink it.

You can tail the under on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins when placing a first bet of at least $5!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Jaylen Warren Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115; DraftKings)

Bet To: Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 53.8

If there’s one offensive player to be excited about on Thursday, it’s probably Jaylen Warren. He’s still operating as the No. 2 running back behind Najee Harris, but his role has been steady of late. He’s handled 38% of the team’s carries over that sample, and he’s been at or above that figure in three of his past four games.

Anyone with eyes can tell that Warren is the more explosive back, but it’s reflected in the numbers as well. Warren has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt this season, Harris just 4.2. Warren has a 52.9% success rate, Harris 44.0. Harris is better at generating yards after contact, but Warren’s speed means he’s not getting hit nearly as quickly as Harris is on most plays.

Warren has racked up at least nine carries in five straight contests, and with his efficiency, that’s enough to warrant some exposure at this number. He’s had at least 49 yards in all five games, and he’s gone for at least 88 yards in three of them. The Patriots have been tough against the run this season, but this number is simply too low.

You can tail Warren's over on DraftKings, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Bailey Zappe Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+134; FanDuel)

Bet To: Under 0.5 (+100)
Fantasy Life Projection: 0.7

In a game where scoring figures to be at a premium, getting the under on Zappe’s passing touchdown prop at better than even money feels like a steal. Zappe has thrown 64 pass attempts this season, and he’s yet to put the ball into the endzone. What’s to stop that from happening again this week?

Pittsburgh has been one of the tougher defenses to score on this season, ranking ninth in passing touchdowns allowed per game. The Pats don’t exactly have an abundance of pass-catching talent, so it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t find the paint through the air on Thursday. The Patriots are six-point underdogs in a game with a 30.0-point total, giving them an implied team total of just 12.0 points.

We currently have Zappe projected for 0.7 passing touchdowns, but as long as you can get this wager at even money or better, I think it offers plenty of value.

Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown (+230, FanDuel)

Honestly, it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to just avoid this category altogether on Thursday. Touchdown props don’t typically offer the most enticing odds to begin with, let alone in a game with a 30-point total.

Still, if you are looking for someone to find the paint on Thursday, Geoff Ulrich has you covered. He highlights [player] as a worthy touchdown target in this matchup:

"Despite everything the Patriots have done not to score over their last three games these odds on Elliott are still way too tempting to pass up. The former Cowboy took 21 touches last week and was the only RB on New England to handle the ball once Rhamondre Stevenson (out Week 14) went down with an ankle injury.

That may not sound like a big deal since the Patriots reach the red zone (2.0 red zone appearances per game – 32nd in the league) at about the same rate that Cookie Monster eats vegetables. However, if and when the Patriots get inside the Steelers 20-yard line it will be Elliott (who could see 80%+ of the snaps this week) who benefits."

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

This is another category that is not nearly as appealing in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. However, there’s one player that catches my eye: George Pickens.

Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) runs after a catch as Arizona Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins (25) chases during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pickens is someone who specializes in generating big plays – something that is vital if you’re looking to climb multiple rungs on the ladder. Pickens’ lines are also very reasonable in this matchup, so we’re not going to need a huge performance to get into plus-money territory. You can grab 50+ yards at (+136), 60+ yards at (+210), and 80+ yards at (+430) on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pickens will obviously face some adversity against the Patriots defense, especially with a QB downgrade from Pickett to Trubisky. However, Pickett still managed 86 receiving yards last week, and he has four games with 80+ for the year. He even has three games with 100+ receiving yards, so you can ladder all the way up to 100+ at (+880) if you’re feeling super adventurous.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will either of these offenses exceed expectations, or will the defenses reign supreme? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

Full disclosure – since the Patriots have yet to officially announce their starting QB for this contest, the SGP options are slightly limited. You should have a more robust menu to choose from by the time you’re reading this, but I’m going to do the best I can with what I’ve got.

I’m going to start with Under 30.5 points for this contest, and I’m going to pair it with the Steelers moneyline. Given all the uncertainty surrounding the Patriots, I think the Steelers should be able to secure it win. It might be ugly, but that’s why I’m opting for the moneyline instead of the spread.

After that, I’m going to add in two plays from our props and ladder section: Warren over 48.5 rushing yards and 50+ receiving yards for Pickens. They both managed to clear those thresholds in back-to-back weeks, and I see no reason why they can’t make it three in a row.

Those four legs bring our potential payout to +905 on FanDuel:

TNF Same Game Parlay

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!