Top MLB Picks for June 5: Trust the Pirates on Wednesday

As we dive into the top MLB picks for Wednesday, June 5, we’re into the final stretch of the first half of the MLB season.

Most teams have played around 60 games, so we’re starting to get a good feel for which teams are contenders and which teams are pretenders. There are still tons of teams for teams to make their moves up the standings – the MLB season is long – but we’ve already started to see some separation in most divisions. Five of the six divisions feature a lead of at least 5.0 games, with only the AL East looking like a true battle.

Wednesday’s slate features a nice mix of afternoon and evening contests. Six games will start at 4:05 p.m. ET or earlier, followed by a nine-game main slate at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite bets for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Picks for Wednesday, June 5

Baltimore Orioles ML at Toronto Blue Jays (+105; BetMGM)

It’s rare that we get to target a team as good as the Orioles at better than even money, but that’s the case on Wednesday. That stems predominantly from the pitching matchup. The Blue Jays will be sending Jose Berrios to the mound, while the Orioles will counter with Albert Suarez.

Berrios has been good this season, pitching to a 2.78 ERA, but he’s done it with smoke and mirrors. His strikeout numbers and Statcast data remain underwhelming, but opposing batters have managed just a .259 BABIP. Overall, his xERA checks in at a much less impressive 4.15.

In most regards, Suarez has been the better pitcher. He may not have the same track record, but his 3.01 xERA is significantly better. He’s also been really good at limiting the damage on balls in play, with his 4.2% barrel rate ranking in the 87th percentile.

The Orioles also have the clear edge offensively. They’re sixth in wRC+ against right-handers this season (109), while the Blue Jays are merely 16th (99). Add it all up, and getting the Orioles as underdogs is an excellent value.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-112; DraftKings)

Paul Skenes is on the bump for the Pirates, which means they’re automatically worthy of consideration. Skenes has been nothing short of the best pitcher in baseball since making his MLB debut. He’s pitched to a 2.45 ERA and a 2.83 xERA while striking out 35.7% of opposing batters. He’s also posted a 112 Pitching+ in the big leagues, which is the top mark among all starters.

Skenes has racked up two wins in his four starts, and he would be 4-for-4 if not for two disastrous showings from the Pirates’ bullpen. Ultimately, the Pirates should be favored every time this guy is on the bump.

The only reason they’re not bigger faovrites on Wednesday is the matchup. They’re taking on the Dodgers, who remain one of the best teams in baseball. Still, their lineup has not been nearly as potent as expected, particularly at the bottom of the lineup.

The Dodgers will also send one of their worst starters to the mound in James Paxton. Paxton’s ERA sits at a respectable 3.29 this season, but his xERA is nearly two full runs higher. His Stuff+ is way down – 73 for the year, 65 in his last outing – but he’s survived due to extreme good fortune (.243 BABIP; 85.4% strand rate).

The Pirates’ offense is at their best against left-handed pitchers, so this is the perfect opportunity to target them. I’d play them up to -125.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, June 5

White Sox F5 ML at Cubs (+140)

I’m going back to the Erick Fedde well on Wednesday. The right-hander has completely reinvented himself after a stint in Korea, pitching to a 3.14 ERA and 3.43 xERA through 12 starts this season. He should give the White Sox a chance in the early innings before the bullpen eventually implodes.

Zach Eflin Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138)

Zach Eflin will return to the Rays’ rotation after a short stint on the 15-day IL. There’s always risk in targeting a pitcher on his first start back from injury, but Eflin isn’t expected to be heavily limited. As long as he can get to five or six innings, getting to four strikeouts shouldn’t be overly difficult. He had at least four punchouts in each of his first seven starts this season, and the Marlins have the 11th-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 14 days.

2024 MLB Bets Record

Yesterday: 1-3 (-1.04 units)
Season: 119-131-6 (-13.845 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.