Week 1 Sunday NFL Betting Recap: Upsets and Late Covers
Geoff Ulrich runs through all the Week 1 Sunday NFL games and how the betting results broke down as the 2024 season kicked off.
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season did not disappoint, unless you had a certain heavy favorite in survivor pools. Here is a rundown of all the Sunday games with quick analysis as to how the games arrived at their sometimes unexpected outcomes. Make sure to get a head start on Week 2 with Best Bets.
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The Early Games
The Early games in Week 1 were a wash from a covering perspective. Favorites went 3-3-1 ATS with the Bears, Vikings, and Saints all covering. The Bears cover was somewhat of a miracle as they needed a blocked punt returned for a TD and a ridiculous pick-6 to achieve that goal.
The dogs who covered included the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers. Both Pittsburgh and New England won outright while the Colts backdoor covered with a late TD, which ultimately meant nothing in the outcome of the game.
Patriots 16, Bengals 10
New England was the biggest dog of the week and for them to win outright in Week 1 against Joe Burrow on the road made that result the slate's biggest shock. We see upsets all the time in the NFL, but for this to happen Week 1 against a team that was as low as +1000 to win the Super Bowl made this one extra spicy.
Additionally, since it was Week 1—and survivor pools were just starting—the Bengals were by far the most popular survivor pool pick since everyone tends to be ultra-conservative at the start. You will likely see an abnormal number of people thirsting for Week 2 survivor pools this year.
Bears 24, Titans 17
Williams had an underwhelming debut (to put it mildly) but was the first No. 1 overall pick since David Carr back in 2002 to win in his debut start.
Will Levis threw an insane (dumb) pick-6 and the Bears got a blocked punt TD, both of which came in the second half.
The Titans wasted a monster effort by Tony Pollard (94 total yards and 1 TD), who looked rejuvenated in his first start for Tennessee.
Vikings 28, Giants 6
Daniel Jones 4.22 yards per attempt. That’s the tweet. Gross.
The 2024 Giants looked like the 2023 Giants with Jones under center, and you have to wonder how long it will be until we see a switch at QB for this team.
Malik Nabers went 5-66 on 7 targets in his debut but none of it mattered. Sam Darnold looked like Joe Montana, going 19-for-24 with 208 yards and 2 TDs (and one INT—classic Sam).
Saints 47, Panthers 10
Bryce Young started Year 2 by getting his first pass intercepted. This game was never close. Young doesn’t have the talent to elevate a depleted roster and the Panthers don’t have the roster to elevate Young.
The Saints may have found something in new OC Klint Kubiak because their rushing game produced in this spot (Alvin Kamara 5.53 YPC).
Dolphins 20, Jaguars 17
The Dolphins looked like they were ready to blow this game then Tyreek Hill (who got detained hours before the game for a traffic violation) broke free for an 80-yard TD.
One short drive later and the game-winning field goal was kicked and Miami survived Week 1. De’Von Achane (7 receptions, 76 yards on 7 targets) saw great usage as a receiver. He totaled 100 all-purpose yards and scored his first TD of the season.
Bills 34, Cardinals 28
The Bills got down early but Josh Allen produced two rushing TDs (and threw for another) against what is still a very thin Cardinals defense.
Kyler Murray made a game of it but a late fumble cost his team. Marvin Harrison Jr. was a dud and saw a whopping 3 targets in his debut, going for 4 yards on one catch. The Cardinals didn’t trade down for more defensive help at the draft and it will likely hurt them this season and going forward.
Steelers 18, Falcons 10
The Arthur Smith revenge game went the way of Arthur Smith. Kirk Cousins threw 2 INTs against a very stout Steelers secondary and Justin Fields had a very efficient game, going 17-for-23 and 156 yards (plus 57 yards rushing).
The Steelers defense is going to keep them in games all season and it’s likely going to frustrate the hell out of people again. Don’t bet against Mike Tomlin as an underdog.
Texans 29, Colts 27
This was easily the best game of the early slate with two young QBs duking it out like boxers in their primes. C.J. Stroud completed 75% of his passes and had the cleaner game, throwing for 2 TDs and no INTs.
Anthony Richardson threw for two TDs and 212 yards on just 9 completions and rushed for a TD, but it wasn’t enough. These are two solid teams we could see meeting in the postseason at some point.
Early Game Totals
Unders went 5-3. Two games saw less than 30 points scored in the Steelers at Falcons and Patriots at Bengals. There was also some horrendous QB play to note. Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, and Caleb Williams all threw for under 60% completion rate and less than 200 passing yards.
I would expect the QB play to improve as we go, but last year we saw much of the same with totals going 12-4 to the Under on Week 1. The first two primetime games did both go over, although it depended on what number you got in the Baltimore-Denver game, but there was some ugly play in Week 1 and it’s not likely to be vastly improved in just one week of practice.
- Bears 24, Titans 17 (Bears -4.0) Under 42.5
- Vikings 28, Giants 6 (Vikings +1.5) Under 42.5
- Saints 47, Panthers 10 (Saints +4.0) Over 41.5
- Dolphins 20, Jaguars 17 (Dolphins -3.0) Under 49.5
- Bills 34, Cardinals 28 (Bills +6.0) Over 45.5
- Patriots 16, Bengals 10 (Patriots +8.0) Under 40.5
- Steelers 18, Falcons 10 (Steelers +3.0) Under 42.5
- Texans 29, Colts 27 (Colts +3.0) Over 48.5
The Late Games
We had only four games on the late slate, with the Broncos being the biggest underdog at +6.0 points. Overall, the favorites went 2-0-1 with the Broncos getting a late-game cover against Seattle to push that contest at 6.0.
Chargers 22, Raiders 10
Gardner Minshew threw for 257 yards but also turned the ball over twice. J.K. Dobbins ran for 135 yards on just 10 carries and landed a TD. Ladd McConkey landed in the end zone in his first game and led the Chargers with five catches.
The Chargers look like a legit team with room to grow while the Raiders will (predictably) struggle this year due to poor QB play.
Seahawks 26, Broncos 20
The Broncos took an early lead thanks to a few mistakes early on by the Seahawks, but Seattle’s talent shone through. Kenneth Walker III ran for 103 yards and a TD, and the Seattle defense limited Bo Nix to just 3.28 yards per attempt.
Denver’s offense looked extremely limited in this game, but it may have been due to Seattle’s defense (led by new HC Mike Macdonald). Either way, it was a slow offensive start for Denver.
Buccaneers 37, Commanders 20
Baker Mayfield looked fantastic in his first start of 2024, throwing for 4 TDs and went 24-for-30 for 256 yards.
It’s hard to fault the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels for the loss, as he ran for 88 yards in his first start in the league. Daniels certainly performed better than Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Caleb Williams and the difference in performance will likely cause these odds to fluctuate this week.
Cowboys 33, Browns 17
The Cowboys' defense took over this game. They landed 6sacks and a defensive score, as Deshaun Watson threw 2 INTs and passed for just 169 yards on 45 attempts.
Dak Prescott had a clean game, but only threw for 179 yards. It wasn’t a great offensive start, but Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will have much softer matchups than this in the future.
Late Game Totals
The Overs won out in the late games, going 3-1 with the Chargers-Raiders being the only game that went under the total. For the day, totals went 6-6.
- Chargers 22 (-3.0), Raiders 10 (41.5)
- Seahawks (-6.0), Broncos (41.5)
- Buccaneers 37 (-3.5), Commanders 20 (45.5)
- Cowboys 33 (+2.5), Browns 17 (42.5)
Week 1 Sunday results (leading into Sunday Night Football):
Favorites: 5-3-2
Underdogs: 3-5-2
Overs: 6-6
Unders: 6-6
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