Matt LaMarca presents Monday Night Football Best Bets, featuring Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins facing Cooper Kupp and the Los Angeles Rams.

We’ve got a sneaky-good contest on the docket for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 10. The Dolphins will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams, with the Rams listed as 2.5-point home favorites. The total is listed at 49.0, so there could be a decent amount of scoring as well.

The Dolphins are sitting at just 2-6, but they’re clearly better than their record suggests. They’ve had to deal with the absence of Tua Tagovailoa for most of the season, but since he’s returned to the lineup, they’ve lost two games by a combined 4 points. Those losses have come against the Bills and Cardinals, who are both currently in first place in their respective divisions.

The Rams are also getting healthier. They’ve gotten back Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in recent weeks, and they’ve rattled off three straight wins. That’s improved them to 4-4 for the year, so the playoffs are still definitely possible in the wide-open NFC.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Monday Night Football.

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Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)—49.0 total

The big story in this game involves the two offenses. Both teams' numbers this season aren’t impressive, but they’ve been playing with suboptimal circumstances. When these teams are at full strength, they’re more than capable of scoring from anywhere on the field.

In Miami’s three games that Tagovailoa started and finished, the team has averaged 24.7 points and 383.3 yards per game. Both of those figures would be good enough to put the Dolphins in the top third of the league.

The Rams might be even better. They were the No. 4 offense in EPA per play from Week 10 on last season. When Kupp, Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Matthew Stafford have all been healthy, this has been an extremely difficult team to slow down.

Both of these offenses should be able to take advantage of their respective matchups. Neither of these squads is terrible defensively, but they rank 18th (Dolphins) and 21st (Rams) in EPA per play. Given how good these offenses can be, it seems like a pretty significant mismatch.

The total on this game is set at 49.0 points, and that’s high for a game in 2024. The over is just 13-15 in games with a total of at least 48 points this season, and it’s 49-72 dating back to the start of 2022-23.

Still, this game feels like a bit of an outlier. As the Ravens and Bengals proved on Thursday Night Football, it’s still possible to score points in the modern NFL with the right combination of matchups. This game could fit that description.

The one caveat is that Tyreek Hill is officially questionable with a wrist injury. The most recent reports have him as a “true 50/50,” so it’s possible that he misses this contest. If that’s the case, I would have no problem laying 2.5 points with the Rams.

But as long as Hill can go? This seems like a prime spot for an over. This total has come down a bit since opening, but that seems most likely due to Hill’s injury. If he’s in the lineup, both of these offenses should be able to do some damage.

The Pick: Over 48.5 (-110; FanDuel)

Player Props for Monday Night Football

Raheem Mostert Under 8.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)

Mostert has been a big part of the team’s rushing attack since returning from injury in Week 5, but he’s not very active as a pass catcher. He had just a 13% route participation last week vs. the Bills, and he’s been targeted on 12% of his routes run for the year. That’s a great combination for an under.

Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-128; FanDuel)

Stafford’s passing touchdown prop isn’t priced nearly as favorably as Baker Mayfield’s was last Monday, but I’m still diving into this market headfirst. Stafford has thrown at least two touchdowns in back-to-back games, and the Dolphins have given up multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games. Kyler Murray got to 2 touchdowns against them in Miami, while Josh Allen had 3 scores despite missing some key receivers last week. FanDuel currently has this prop priced at -128, while the rest of the industry is around -150.

Cooper Kupp Over 65.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)

Kupp’s utilization in Week 9 was a bit inflated by Nacua being ejected. That said, even with a full workload for Nacua this week, Kupp should still be able to clear this number. He’s had at least 8 targets in his three full games this season, and both Matthew Freedman and Dwain McFarland have Kupp projected for at least 70 yards in this matchup.

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