Week 10 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Jets @ Raiders
Matt LaMarca gives out his best bet for the New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night Football as well as some player props and a same-game parlay.
Some weeks offer up a ton of great primetime games for our viewing pleasure. Week 10 is not one of those weeks.
After having suffered through the Panthers at the Bears on Thursday Night Football, we’re now “rewarded” with the Jets at the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The Jets are currently listed as one-point road favorites with the total sitting at a paltry 36.5 points.
The Jets are coming off an embarrassing showing against the Chargers in their last game while the Raiders were dominant in rookie QB Aidan O’Connell’s second NFL start last week.
Can O’Connell keep the momentum rolling, or will the Jets send him crashing back down to reality? Let’s dive into the best bets for Sunday Night Football.
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Jets -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Total: 36.5
- Moneylines: Jets -115 / Raiders -105
The fact that the Jets have been keeping their playoff hopes alive with Zach Wilson at QB this season is a minor miracle. Despite a brutal schedule, they’ve managed to secure wins against the Eagles and Bills. They’ve also taken care of business against the Giants and Broncos, while their four losses have come to the Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, and Chargers. New York has run the gamut thus far in 2023.
On paper, the Jets should get a break this week against O’Connell. The fourth-round rookie QB out of Purdue has predictably struggled in his two NFL starts, having averaged just 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt with one TD and two INTs. He did lead the team to a convincing win over the Giants in Week 9, but that was more about the defense than O’Connell. The Raiders' three TDs in that game also came on the ground, so he simply had to avoid big mistakes.
That will be a lot harder to do against the Jets’ elite defense. They currently rank seventh in EPA allowed per play, and they’re second-best in the league in that metric over the last four weeks.
New York been particularly good against the pass. Even in last week’s loss to the Chargers, the Jets still limited Justin Herbert to just 16 completions for 136 yards and no TDs. They also racked up five sacks and held the Chargers to less than 200 yards of total offense, so that loss was more as a result of a complete offensive meltdown from Zach Wilson & Co. on the Jets' side.
Nov 6, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (95) sacks Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during a football game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The Jets had three turnovers in that matchup, but their biggest issue remains the offensive line. They’ve had to overcome some injuries, and the guys that were left were completely outclassed by the Chargers’ pass rush. Los Angeles tallied eight sacks, bringing the New York to 32 sacks allowed on the year, which is tied for the third-most thus far in 2023.
What’s particularly concerning about last week’s showing is that the Chargers don’t even boast a great pass rush. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are studs, but the Chargers currently rank just 14th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass rushing grade.
Las Vegas has actually been slightly better in that department, and Maxx Crosby is arguably better than both of the Chargers’ premier pass-rushers. The Raiders had eight sacks against the Giants in Week 9, and their defense could have a similar impact against the Jets.
This mismatch seems like the most important one in this contest. If the Jets can limit Crosby and the rest of the Raiders’ pass-rushers, then New York should win this game on the backs of their defense. If they can’t, the Raiders will likely secure a victory at home in spite of questions about their rookie QB.
Best Bet: Under 36.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m taking the under in a primetime game. Huge shocker, I know…but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
It’s no secret that unders have absolutely dominated in 2023. After another under hit on Thursday Night Football, unders are now a ridiculous 84-52-1 through the first nine-plus weeks. Going back to the start of last year, unders have gone 235-171-2.
The sportsbooks simply haven’t been able to set these lines low enough. Matthew Freedman and I discussed the dominance of unders in this week’s Early Lines Podcast, but the combination of poor QB play, poor coaching, and defenses doing everything possible to limit explosive plays has resulted in a dearth of scoring we haven’t seen in years.
Unders have been a particularly strong investment in primetime contests. They’re now 23-7 in night games in 2023 and 145-91-3 in night games dating back to the start of the 2019 season.
Can unders continue to crush at this rate? I’m not 100% sure, but I don’t think Wilson and O’Connell are going to buck the trend. O’Connell should struggle to move the ball against an elite Jets defense, and Wilson is going to be under constant duress from Crosby & Co. on the Raiders' side.
The X-factor here is whether either of these defenses will be able to score. Defensive and special teams TDs can kill an under, but we’ve managed to survive them in recent weeks. The Bears-Panthers game went under this past Thursday despite a special teams TD, and last Monday's Jets-Chargers matchup went under despite Los Angeles having benefited from essentially two non-offensive scores.
36.5 points might seem like a low total, but I’d argue that it’s still not low enough. The Chargers-Jets total got as low as 39.5 last Monday, and Herbert is worth way more than three points compared to O’Connell. That’s not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but it’s enough for me to back the under in yet another primetime game.
You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
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Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Carries (+100, BetMGM)
- Bet To: Over 17.5 (-120)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 18.0
Jacobs hasn’t been nearly as effective this season as he was last year, when he led the league with 393 touches and more than 2,000 total yards from scrimmage. However, he remains an absolute workhorse. Jacobs has garnered 78% of the Raiders rushing attempts this season, and he’s on pace to lead the league in touches once again.
I expect him to be particularly busy against the Jets. While New York’s defense is absolutely dominant against the pass, they’re a bit more vulnerable on the ground. The Jets lead the league in lowest EPA allowed per dropback over the past four weeks, but they rank just 22nd in EPA allowed per rush attempt.
Oct 30, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs with the ball as Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) chases during the first half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Jacobs had 26 carries against the Giants last week, and the Raiders had their lowest dropback over expectation (DBOE) of the year at -9%.
With a rookie QB under center, expect the Raiders to continue to lean on their veteran RB. The Jets are not the type of team to pull away from an opponent, either, so there’s also not much risk of Jacobs seeing a negative game script in this one.
Zach Wilson Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
- Bet To: Over 12.5 (-125)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 14.0
I don’t trust Wilson to do much as a passer given how little development he's shown, but one of his lone assets is his athleticism. His 4.72 40-yard dash puts him in the 75th percentile for QBs, so Wilson is capable of picking up some yards with his legs.
He’s done that quite a bit so far this season. Wilson has run for at least 14 yards in five of eight games in 2023, including in four of his past five games. Wilson is being asked to be a game manager and limit turnovers, which means that if he doesn’t see anything easy with his arm, he usually just tucks it and runs.
Add in a Raiders pass rush that should force Wilson to keep moving, and I think that this is a great bounce-back spot for his rushing yardage over.
You can tail Wilson's rushing over on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $200 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!
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Breece Hall Anytime TD (+130, BetMGM)
I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.
Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is willing to live a little. He's highlighted Breece Hall as a worthy anytime TD play in this game:
"I'll take the low-hanging fruit in this matchup.
Anytime Hall is available at +100 or more in the anytime TD market, he’s usually a good bet. Over his last 15 games, Hall has managed to find the end zone in seven of them, and let’s not forget that he was either injured or on a snap count in quite a few of those games.
The fact that he's facing the Raiders only makes this sweeter. Las Vegas has a poor set of coverage linebackers that could help spring Hall loose as a receiver for a long score, and they've allowed the sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing RBs to boot.
Either way you slice it, Hall’s in a good spot to rebound in Week 10 and makes sense to chase here as a first TD scorer given both the Raiders' poor defense and the fact the Raiders' offense is going to have trouble scoring against an elite Jets defense."
Find all of Geoff’s TD plays for Week 10 here.
Ladder Bet
If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.
For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.
In a game where we’re not expecting a ton of offense, passing on a ladder might make sense this week.
Nov 6, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) pressures New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) during a football game at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
If you do want to go that route, I think the two best ladder candidates are the two players I mentioned above, Jacobs and Wilson.
Wilson offers the most upside. You can grab 25-plus rushing yards at +245 and 40-plus rushing yards at +800. He already has three games with at least 25 rushing yards this season. And while he’s yet to crack 40, Wilson did have a game with 36 rushing yards, so it's not a crazy target.
You’re not going to get the same upside with Jacobs’s alternate lines unless you’re willing to go way up the ladder. That said, something like 100-plus rushing yards at +320 seems viable. Even though his efficiency is down this season, Jacobs still has a chance to get there due to sheer volume.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can the Bears keep this game competitive, or will the Chargers assert their dominance? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
Unsurprisingly, I’m going to start off my SGP with under 36.5 points. I’m not sure who’s going to win on Sunday Night Football, but I feel pretty confident that neither team is going to be particularly explosive on offense.
After that, I’m going to keep things pretty simple. I’m taking the over on 74.5 rushing yards for Jacobs, and I’m pairing that with unders for O’Connell and Davante Adams. Not only do those bets make sense in this matchup, but they also correlate well with each other.
The result isn’t the most mouth-watering payout, but it’s a good-enough SGP for what should be a low-scoring matchup on Sunday night:
Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!
You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
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