Week 10 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Panthers at Bears.
Matt LaMarca previews the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Panthers and Bears from a betting perspective.
We’ve had some Thursday Night Football stinkers in the past, but this week’s matchup might take the cake. The 1-7 Panthers will travel to Chicago to take on the 2-8 Bears in a battle between two of the three worst teams in football.
Making matters worse, it appears as though Chicago will be without their starting quarterback for the fourth straight game.
Still, just because a game isn’t “good” doesn’t mean we can’t look to make some money on it. Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Thursday Night Football.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Bears -3.5 (-105; BetMGM)
- Total: 38.5
- Moneylines: Panthers +145/Bears -175
Make no mistake about it—these are two bad teams. On offense, the Bears are 23rd in EPA/play, while the Panthers are 27th. Defensively, the Panthers are 29th in EPA/play and the Bears are 30th. Based on point differential, the Panthers have an expected record of 1.9-6.1, while the Bears are 3.2-5.8.
In short, it’s hard to find a redeeming quality about either of these squads at this point in this season.
There was some optimism that Justin Fields would return to the lineup this week, but he’s been listed as doubtful vs. the Panthers. That would’ve given this game a little bit of juice, but we’re likely looking at Tyson Bagent making his fourth start of the year.
Bagent is an undrafted rookie free agent who played his college ball at D-II Shepherd, and guys like that are not supposed to start at the NFL level. That’s particularly true during their first year in the league, and Bagent has looked overmatched for most of his snaps. He’s averaging just 4.4 adjusted yards per attempt, and he’s thrown six interceptions on just 110 passes. His 5.5% interception rate would be the worst mark in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify.
Still, it’s hard to call Bagent’s tenure as the Bears’ quarterback a complete failure. He’s had his moments, and he’s done enough to propel the Bears to a 2-1 ATS record in his three starts. The team was merely 1-4-1 ATS with Fields under center this season, so it’s been a slight improvement from a betting perspective.
Over the past four weeks, Bagent ranks 24th out of 28 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps in EPA + CPOE composite. That’s far from good, but it still gives him an edge over No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. He’s 25th in that metric over that time frame, and he’s 28th for the full season.
Nov 5, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) hands the ball off to running back Roschon Johnson (23) against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
There was some optimism that he could improve over the second half of the season. He engineered his first professional victory in the team’s first week after the bye, but he regressed badly in Week 9 vs. the Colts. Indianapolis had allowed 37 points or more in three straight weeks, but the Panthers managed just 13 points on Sunday. Making matters worse, Stroud threw two pick-sixes, so the Colts’ defense actually outscored the Panthers’ offense.
It goes without saying that you’re not going to win many games that way.
As bad as the Panthers have been this season, you could argue that they’ve still been overvalued by the sportsbooks. They’re just 1-6-1 ATS, making them the worst team in the league in terms of ROI (-63.3%).
Young should be able to find some success against the Bears, but we thought the same thing heading into last week’s matchup. Ultimately, it’s hard to feel good about him in almost any scenario at this point.
Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 (-108; FanDuel)
Despite everything I said above, I still think it’s hard to look at these two teams and say the Bears are significantly better. They’re roughly the same on defense, and excluding Bagent’s big day in a 30-12 win over the Raiders, he’s largely been a disaster.
When two bad teams meet at this point in the season, taking the points is almost always the right idea. In matchups between two teams with a winning percentage of 25% or worse, the underdog is 136-95-6 ATS since 2005. That’s good for a +14.3% return on investment.
The line movement on this game has also been interesting. The Panthers were listed as two-point underdogs on the lookahead line, but that figure got as high as 4.0 earlier this week. When the news broke that Fields was doubtful, the number only dipped to 3.5.
Bagent has been a more successful ATS quarterback than Fields this season, but Fields is clearly worth more than 0.5 points to the spread. And if the line was never factoring Fields into the equation to begin with, why did this number jump from 2.0 to 4.0?
Add it all up, and I think the Panthers look like the clear right side in this matchup. The sharps seem to agree, with Carolina grabbing 87% of the betting dollars on just 58% of the tickets (per the Action Network).
If you find the idea of betting on the Panthers too gross—I don’t blame you—you could consider the under as well.
The under has absolutely smashed so far this season, going a ridiculous 83-52-1 (+17.4% ROI). When you add in what happened last year, the under is 234-171-2 over the past 407 regular season contests.
Unders have been particularly profitable in primetime games. It’s gone 22-7 so far this season, and it’s 144-91-3 dating back to the start of 2019-20.
The Bears have been an over team for most of the year, but they’re 2-1-1 to the under in the four games that Bagent has appeared in. Carolina is 6-3 to the under this season.
The total is pretty low total at just 38.5 points, but the sharps still like it. The under has received 90% of the dollars, so don’t be surprised if points are at a premium once again on Thursday night.
You can tail the Panthers on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets simply by placing an initial bet of $5 or more when you sign up below!
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Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Bryce Young Over 31.5 attempts (-120; BetMGM)
- Bet To: Over 32.5 (-125)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 34.0
When it comes to player props, I prefer betting on volume stats rather than efficiency ones. While production can vary week-to-week, volume is a bit more stable.
Ultimately, I think getting the over on 31.5 pass attempts for Young is an absolute steal at -120.
Nov 5, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws the ball against the Indianapolis Colts during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Young has attempted at least 32 passes in all but one game this season, and he had 31 in the game where he missed out. That was the Panthers’ only win this season, so he shouldn’t have to throw quite as much if the Panthers are competitive.
However, the Bears have been a major pass-funnel defense so far this year. They’ve actually been pretty stout against the run, ranking third in the league in rushing EPA. They’re 31st vs. the pass, so if the Panthers are going to have success offensively, it’s going to come from Young’s right arm.
We have him projected for 34 attempts, and I’m willing to play this prop almost all the way up to that number.
You can tail the over on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!
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Terrace Marshall Under 28.5 receiving yards (-120; DraftKings)
- Bet To: Under 25.5 (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 12.8
Our current projection on Marshall is really low, but I expect it to come up a bit before kickoff. We still have D.J. Chark factored into the equation, but he’s currently doubtful to suit up.
If Chark is ruled out, Marshall is going to see a spike in playing time. He had a 48% route participation last week, mostly due to Chark playing on just 58% of the team’s snaps.
That said, there’s no guarantee those extra snaps lead to any production. Marshall got in some extra cardio last week, but he didn’t earn a single target.
Getting snaps isn’t new to Marshall. He had a 90% snap share in Week 1, and he finished with just two catches for 25 yards. He’s clearly behind Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo in the receiver pecking order, and Young isn’t nearly good enough to support three receivers at this point.
There’s always some danger in taking on under on such a small number, but I think this figure has become too inflated by Chark’s likely absence.
You can tail Marshall's under on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a bet of $5 or more!
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D'Onta Foreman Anytime Touchdown (+150, DraftKings)
I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.
Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is more willing to live a little. He’s highlighted D'Onta Foreman as a worthy touchdown-scorer play in Panthers-Bears:
A main carry RB on a team that is favored by 4.0 points, against one of the league’s worst rush defenses? At better odds than +100? Yeah, we’ll take it.
Foreman took over 70% of the carries last week against the Saints and performed admirably against a tougher defense (4.2 yards per carry). The Panthers are far more giving and have allowed 11 rushing TDs against this year to RBs, and have allowed multiple rushing TDs to RBs in five different games.
Helping the cause is the fact rookie Roschon Johnson looks closer to being benched than making this a true split – after averaging under 3.7 ypc the last two games.
The Bears coaches may also be less likely to use Justin Fields (questionable) in any short-yardage situations given the dicey situation with his thumb. Regardless of who starts under center, Foreman looks like decent value this week in a game the Bears have an implied team total of 21.5.
Ladder Bet
If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.
For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes over all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, make sure to check out Geoff’s primer on ladder bets.
We’re still waiting on the status of Khalil Herbert. He’s listed as questionable for this contest, but I fully expect him to be in the lineup. He practiced in full on both Monday and Tuesday, so he should be activated from IR before Thursday’s matchup.
What his role is remains to be seen. D’Onta Foreman has operated as the team’s lead back in his absence, while Roschon Johnson has served as the team’s receiving back.
Still, Herbert was carving out a larger role for himself before getting hurt, so there’s a chance he jumps right back to the top of the pecking order.
I don’t imagine his props will be very high when they’re ultimately listed, and whoever gets the carries for Chicago will be in a great spot. The Panthers have been the worst team in the league in rush defense EPA and Success Rate, so the Bears’ runners should be able to find success in this matchup.
With that in mind, I like the idea of laddering Herbert (or Foreman) in this spot. If I can get good numbers on 50+ and 75+ yards, I think those are the most logical candidates in this matchup.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will primetime unders continue to dominate, or can these offenses manage to buck the trend? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
I’m going to start with the Panthers +3.5 and the under. Those are two bets that the sharps like, and I think they make sense together. I don’t see the Panthers scoring a ton of points against anyone, so this game is going to need to be lower-scoring if they’re going to compete.
I’d also love to add the over on one of the Bears’ running backs, but since those lines are not yet listed, I’m going to abstain for the time being. That said, keep it in mind if you’re playing something like this for yourself. That’s another bet that would correlate well with the under, since moving the ball on the ground chews up the clock quicker than doing so through the air.
Next, I’m going to add the over on 219.5 passing yards for Young. He’s hit the over on that figure in two of his past four games, and he just narrowly missed with 217 in a third.
Finally, let’s add an anytime touchdown for Cole Kmet. He had two scores last week vs. the Saints, and he’s seen 18 targets over his past two games with Bagent. Kmet has 30% of the team’s end zone targets for the year, so he’s one of their most likely touchdown scorers outside of the running backs.
Add it all up, and it results in a massive +3500 potential payout:
This is the biggest potential payout we’ve shot for all season, and it admittedly doesn’t have the greatest correlation. After all, if Kmet scores, it doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room for the Panthers to cover and the game to stay under 38.5 points.
Still, all of these wagers make sense to me individually. If you ultimately wanted to swap Kmet out for something a bit safer, that would make plenty of sense as well.
Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
