Week 12 Sunday Night Football Best Bets: Rams upset Eagles?
Geoff Ulrich presents the Week 12 Sunday Night Football Best Bets, player props, Underdog picks, and more for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams.
Geoff Ulrich presents the Week 12 Sunday Night Football Best Bets for Eagles vs. Rams.
This Sunday Night brings us a banger of an NFC matchup.
The Los Angeles Rams have pulled themselves back to a respectable 5-5 record after starting the season 1-4. They’ve had issues putting together full games, but as they showed last week when Matthew Stafford dropped 4 passing TDs and 28 points against the Patriots, their upside as an offense is still right up there with the best units in the league.
The Rams have also gotten slowly better on defense as the year has progressed. Their top two picks were defensive linemen in Braden Fiske and Jared Verse, and both men have played exceptionally well to start the season–with Verse now the betting favorite in the defensive rookie of the year market (-175 at most books). The Rams have also averaged 4.3 sacks over their last three games and are 10th in turnovers.
On a grander scale, the Rams are now right in the thick of things for the division title. The 49ers are big underdogs in Green Bay with Brock Purdy out, and one of the Seahawks and Cardinals will lose ground in the NFC West race after they face off this week.
It won’t be easy for the Rams to gain in their division, as the Eagles have moved into second-favorite status for the NFC Conference crown after a hot run that has seen them reel off six wins in a row, many of which have come by a healthy margin.
Philadelphia is being led by current OPOY frontrunner Saquon Barkley, who now leads the league in rush + receiving yards. On top of featuring a top-tier rushing attack that is first in EPA per rush, the Eagles' defense has also taken a massive step up in their recent run. They’re now sixth in EPA per play on defense and third in EPA per play against the pass.
They have faced some weaker passing offenses over their last few games, and certainly this week will be a tougher test for their secondary against a veteran in Stafford and his two elite WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
So are the Eagles being overvalued after this long winning streak, or do we fade the underdog Rams at home? We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best bets for this week’s SNF game.
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Rams +3.0 (-120; bet365) vs. Eagles -3.0 (+100; bet365) 49.0
Injury notes Rams:
Out
Rob Havenstein OL Doubtful
KT Leveston OL
Injury Notes Eagles:
OUT
Spread and Total
Our Game Model is still showing some value on the Eagles at the current lines, especially since you can now bet them at -2.5 (-120) at FanDuel.
I would personally lean toward the Rams and may make a small play on them either at +3.0 if this line moves toward -110 or the moneyline (they’re +130 on bet365). The Eagles are clearly an elite team, but the Rams belong in the same weight class (for me) and giving them 3 points at home is just too much for me to ignore.
We have this game total projected at 48.4, so there is some value showing on the under at 49.0. The total will be a complete pass for me, but if I were picking a side, I’d fall on the over.
LA showed some fantastic upside a few weeks ago against another top-tier defense in Minnesota, and is coming off a big week against the Patriots. You get the feeling this offense is finally hitting its full stride and with the Eagles capable of making splash plays in numerous ways, this isn’t a game where I would want to be betting on a ton of defensive stops.
I break down the best props and more for Eagles at Rams below.
Rams vs. Eagles Best Bets:
Saquon Barkley over 13.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
- 20+ rec yards (+160; bet365)
- 30+ rec yards (+320; bet365)
The over on Saquon Barkley’s receiving yards stood out to me at first glance. On top of the Rams being a funnel to the pass defense (they’ve allowed just 3.5 ypc against the last three games), this a very low line for a near every-down RB who is projected to be involved in a back-and-forth/close game, against an opposing offense that can score points in a hurry.
For the season, Barkley has only been over this in four of 10 starts, but all of his overs came in close games where the Eagles were either behind in the fourth quarter (and ended up losing) or ahead by less than a single score.
That’s very much the matchup we have forecasted for Barkley this week with the Rams, who, outside of one blowout loss to the Cardinals in Week 2, have either won or lost by a single score in the rest of their games.
The Rams also don’t have the greatest linebacker crew in the world and have allowed at least one opposing RB to go over this receiving total in seven straight games. Given how much he plays, if any Eagles RB ends up going for a big day through the air, it’s almost certainly going to be Barkley.
I already have an over on Barkley at 13.5 in our free NFL Bet Tracker, but given that we have him projected for 18 receiving yards this week on Fantasy Life I’d feel OK about playing this over up to 14.5 (-110).
If you’re looking for a little more upside, I also like the idea of laddering him through 20+ and 30+ receiving yards at the current prices.
Grant Calcaterra over 5.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
Look, we don’t need to bet the over on backup TEs in every single game, but I do think the circumstances this week are underrating the potential for a little more involvement from Grant Calcaterra, who went targetless on 37 snaps played last week against the Commanders.
Dallas Goedert is likely going to get more primary targets this week, but with DeVonta Smith out there is certainly the potential for Calcaterra to run more routes this week as well, and be a factor in the passing game again.
The other thing I like about being bullish on Calcaterra (if you can say predicting a player for 6+ yards of receiving bullish) is that he’s a known quantity for Jalen Hurts. When Goedert was out this season, Calcaterra stepped into the lead role and caught 13 passes over four games. If the Eagles find themselves unable to get the ball downfield to A.J. Brown, they could certainly dial up a couple more looks for Calcaterra in this spot, as he is a very competent receiver.
Could he go catchless again? Absolutely. But at 5.5 yards the bar just seems too low given the potential for a close game to develop and the Eagles being without one of their primary target earners.
Underdog Card (3-way; 6x multiplier)
I added in a Cooper Kupp Higher to the two Eagles plays from above.
Kupp’s projected for 72.0 yards on Fantasy Life this week and the Eagles have been great at limiting downfield passes either with great coverage or their pass rush.
I won’t be shocked if Kupp pushes for his ceiling in targets again and gets over this number by sheer volume by the end of the game. If he does, it only makes a pass-heavy game from Philadelphia’s offense more likely.
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