Week 13 MNF Best Bets: Bo Nix Has Broncos Riding Mile High
Matt LaMarca reveals the Week 13 Monday Night Football Best Bets for Browns vs. Broncos, highlighted by rookie sensation Bo Nix leading the Denver offense.
Matt LaMarca reveals the Week 13 Monday Night Football Best Bets and Picks for Cleveland Browns at the Denver Broncos.
NFL Week 13 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Cleveland Browns and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are listed as 6-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.0 points.
This season could not have gone much worse for the Browns. They were expected to contend for a postseason spot for the second straight season, but they’ve managed to win just three of their first 11 games. Their defense has taken a major step back after a historically good season in 2023-24, while their offense has some major question marks.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Conversely, things have gone significantly better than expected for the Broncos. They’ve already gone over their preseason win total of 6.5, thanks mostly to one of the best defenses in football. Their offense also continues to make strides, with Bo Nix improving on a seemingly weekly basis.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Monday Night Football.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-6.0)—42.0 total
It’s hard to remember, but when the lines were first released for this game back in the offseason, the Browns were listed as 3.5-point road favorites. That means the spread has swung by nearly 10 full points.
Of course, it’s easy to see why. The Browns have had a disastrous season. Deshaun Watson was terrible before eventually getting injured, they traded away their best receiver, and their defense has regressed badly. They’re merely 19th in EPA per play defensively after ranking first in the league by a wide margin last year.
This year, it’s the Broncos that have arguably the top defense in football. They’re first in EPA per play, and they’re a top-3 unit in both yards and points per game allowed.
The Broncos have also been really good to bettors this season. They’re 9-3 ATS heading into Monday Night Football, tying them with the Lions and Steelers for the best mark in the league. Denver is also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a favorite, winning by an average of 19.0 points per game and covering the spread by an average of nearly two touchdowns.
The big reason for the Broncos’ improvement has been the continued development of Nix. He started the year looking completely lost, but he has been excellent in recent weeks. Over his past eight games, he’s averaged 236 passing yards per game with 15 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s also added two scores and roughly 25 yards per game on the ground.
The Browns are coming off an emotional win in their last contest, beating the rival Steelers on Thursday Night Football. While that could give them a bit of confidence heading into this matchup, it’s also possible that game was their Super Bowl. It’s a lot harder to get up for a meaningless road game vs. the Broncos than a prime-time home game vs. your division rivals.
Ultimately, I’m going to go with an old standby in this contest: the prime-time under. Unders have been a subpar 18-23 on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football this season, but they’ve been extremely profitable when zooming out further. The Under has gone 178-130-3 in those games over the past six seasons, and there’s been some sharp activity on the Under in this contest as well. You can get the Under on 42.5 on FanDuel at -115, and that stands out as a nice value compared to the rest of the market.
The Pick: Under 42.5 (-115; FanDuel)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Jerome Ford Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115; DraftKings)
Ford is the clear RB2 in Cleveland, with Nick Chubb handling most of the opportunities most weeks. That said, Ford is still carving out around 5 carries a game for himself, and he tends to play more in games where the Browns are trailing. This week’s showdown vs. the Broncos fits that description. Ford has averaged 4.9 yards per attempt this season, so he doesn’t need more than four or five carries to potentially go over this number.
Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown (+155; BetMGM)
As Nix has improved, so have Sutton’s numbers. He’s been an absolute monster over the team’s past five games. Per our Utilization Report, he’s racked up a 29% target share and 45% air-yards share over that stretch, and he’s had 48% of their end-zone targets for the season. That’s made Sutton a major threat to score most weeks. His 5 receiving touchdowns don’t jump off the page, but he’s second only to Ja’Marr Chase in expected receiving touchdowns this season (per PFF). He’s due for some positive regression.
Jerry Jeudy Under 59.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)
With Cedric Tillman out of the lineup this week, Jeudy has the potential to take on an expanded role vs. his old team. That’s caused his receiving yard prop to jump all the way up to 59.5 yards, and that feels like too much vs. the Broncos. They’re No. 1 in pass defense EPA, so this feels like a decent sell-high spot.
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
