Week 13 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Chiefs @ Packers

Week 13 features a sneaky-good Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Packers.

The Chiefs remain a top team in the AFC, currently sitting in second place in the conference at 8-3. However, they haven’t played their best football lately, having lost two of their last four games.

On the other side, the Packers are trying to get into the playoff hunt. They’re currently in eighth place in the NFC, but they’ve made significant strides after having won three of their last four games, including a huge road upset over the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Can Green Bay pull off another upset at home, or will Kansas City assert their dominance in Lambeau Field? Let’s dive into the best bets for Sunday Night Football.

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Chiefs -6.0 (-110, BetMGM)
Total: 42.5
Moneylines: Chiefs -275 / Packers +220

One of the biggest reasons for the Packers’ recent improvement has been the progression of Jordan Love. It’s only his first year as Green Bay’s starting QB, but it seems as though they may have found yet another good QB.

Love unsurprisingly got off to a slow start this season. He averaged just 5.78 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) through his first seven starts, and Love ranked 27th among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite.

But over his last four starts, he’s increased his AY/A to 8.53 and ranks fourth in EPA + CPOE. Only Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and C.J. Stroud have been better in that metric over this span, so Love is playing as well as any QB in the league at the moment.

Nov 23, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) runs out of the pocket against the Detroit Lions in the first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

That said, it’s fair to wonder how much of Love’s improvement was due to easy matchups.

He torched a Lions secondary that's been decimated by injuries on Thanksgiving, and he also had favorable spots against the Chargers and Rams in recent games. The Steelers have been the only above-average pass defense he's faced during this recent stretch of strong performances, and that game was easily his worst of the last four.

This contest should be very telling for Love. The Chiefs have had an elite pass defense this season, currently ranking third in dropback EPA allowed and second in success rate allowed. If Love can succeed on Sunday night, it would prove that he's really taken a step forward rather than having just beaten up on bad defenses as of late.

The Chiefs’ defensive vulnerability is on the ground, but unfortunately, the Packers aren’t well-equipped to exploit that weakness. Aaron Jones remains out of the lineup, so we should again see a heavy dose of A.J. Dillon.

That’s not great news for the Packers. Dillon has averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt this season, and he’s been significantly less efficient than Jones in his career. Dillon has seen 28 carries in the last two games but managed just 72 total rushing yards (2.57 yards per carry). It seems unlikely that he’ll have a breakout performance in this game even with the Chiefs ranking 31st in rush defense EPA.

On the other side, while Kansas City has the best defense they've had during the Patrick Mahomes era in 2023, the offense is undoubtedly the worst it's been with Mahomes under center. The Chiefs have dipped from first in points and yards per game in 2022 to 11th and eighth in 2023, respectively. They’ve been plagued by poor WR play, as their 24 total drops through 12 weeks currently lead the league.

Even Travis Kelce has started to show some signs of decline. He’s averaging fewer yards per catch and yards per target this season than in any previous year, and Kelce has scored just five TDs in 10 games. He’s still the No. 1 fantasy TE in terms of points per game, but the gap between him and the rest of the position has narrowed.

The offense has been desperate for someone to step up alongside Kelce, and it appears as though Rashee Rice might be that guy. The rookie ranks 15th among WRs in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, and his role in the offense has continued to grow. Rice posted a 68% route rate and 32% target share last week against the Raiders, both of which were his season-highs.

As good a QB as Mahomes is, even he needs a bit of help. If Rice can step up as a viable No. 2 option in this offense, the outlook for Kansas City's offense could become a lot rosier over the season half of their season.

Best Bet: Under 43.0 (-112, DraftKings)

I’m upset at myself for not having grabbed the Packers at +7.0 when the line first opened. I wrote them up as a potential target in my Early Lines piece, but that number disappeared quickly before I was able to act.

Now that the line is down to 6.0, it appears as though the Chiefs are the preferred sharp side. They’ve received 52% of the dollars on just 42% of the tickets per the Action Network, so it’s possible that this line could move back toward the Packers' side before kickoff.

Since my preferred number for Green Bay is gone for now, though, let’s pivot to ole reliable primetime under.

2023 has been a banner year for unders – they’re 106-74-1 through the first 12-plus weeks – but they’ve been even better in primetime contests. The under in games starting at 7:00 p.m. or later has gone a sparkling 29-10, and if you look only at Sunday and Monday Night Football, they’re an absurd 23-3. That’s so good that it almost hurts my brain. It’s good for a very nice 69% return on investment, and a $100 bettor would be up nearly $1,800 if they just took the under in each of those spots.

This isn't exactly a new phenomenon. While this has been a particularly profitable year for Sunday and Monday Night Football unders, they’re now 103-57-3 dating back to 2019.

Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) makes a catch against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) during the third quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

I also think that the under between these two teams just makes sense in general. While the Packers’ offense has looked better in recent weeks, they’re going to face a significant step up in competition against a stout Chiefs defense. The last time Green Bay faced a good defense, they managed to score just 19 points against Pittsburgh.

Additionally, Kansas City has been an under machine this season. They’re 8-3 to the under, tying them for the fifth-best mark in the league.

There's no use fighting this trend. Give into the power of the primetime under and (hopefully) reap the rewards.

You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account and place a $5 bet below!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

A.J. Dillon Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Bet To: Over 48.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 61.7

Despite everything I said about Dillon earlier, it’s hard not to love his rushing over when his total is set at just 45.5 yards. Volume is everything at the RB position, and Dillon should see plenty of carries in this matchup.

He racked up 67% of the Packers’ rush attempts on Thanksgiving, and he had 11 more carries than backup RB Patrick Taylor. Jayden Reed and Jordan Love also siphoned off a few rushing attempts, but with Jones sidelined, this is basically Dillon’s backfield.

Detroit Lions linebacker Derrick Barnes tackles Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

If he can see 14 carries once again this week (he's seen 14 in each of their last two games), he doesn’t need to be very efficient to hit the over on 45.5 rushing. The Chiefs have allowed 4.6 yards per carry to opposing runners, so even Dillon should be able to find some success.

We have Dillon projected for close to 15 carries and just under 62 rushing yards, so there's plenty of value in taking the over on 45.5 rushing yards for him on Sunday night.

You can tail the over on Dillon's rushing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Tucker Kraft Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Bet To: Under 23.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 17.4

I honestly wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t even know who Tucker Kraft is. He was a third-round draft pick for the Packers in 2023, and the rookie has started to come on a bit in recent weeks. Kraft had his first career TD last week against the Lions, and he had a career-best 32 receiving yards the week prior against the Chargers.

Still, Kraft is far from a focal point in this offense. He did have an 88% route rate last week, which was better than starting TE Luke Musgrave when he was healthy, but most of that was simply cardio. Kraft saw only a 7% target share, and he’s yet to post a target share above 7% on the year.

Kraft has seen at least two targets in three straight games, but he’s going to need a lot more than that to consistently hit the over on 26.5 receiving yards. Kraft has just one game with more than 26.5 yards this season, so we’re showing significant value on his under.

You can tail the under on Kraft's receiving yards on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+110, FanDuel) and 2+ TDs (+700, FanDuel)

Geoff Ulrich highlighted Isiah Pacheco as a noteworthy TD scorer in his weekly writeup:

“Just the fact that we can get the Chiefs' lead RB at +100 or better for an anytime TD should have us interested. Pacheco has gobbled up almost all of the short-yardage work and comes into this game with a team-high 36 red-zone touches on the season. He’s also already scored six TDs in 11 games in 2023.

While the Chiefs do have a tendency to go to the air in the red zone (they've attempted the second-most red zone passes in the league this year) Pacheco still seems likely to get a couple cracks at the end zone this week given both the matchup and circumstances.

Cold and light snow could affect this game, and even if the weather is good, the Packers project as a tougher team to pass against (14th in yards per attempt) than to run against (nine rushing TDs allowed to opposing RBs) in 2023.”

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

For this matchup, I’m looking at Rice. I’m buying into his breakout as the team’s No. 2 pass-catching option behind Kelce, partly because of his talent and partly because the Chiefs absolutely need him.

Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) makes a reception against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

His props are still priced reasonably, but Rice's role in this offense should only continue to grow after a strong showing against the Raiders last week. It wouldn’t shock me if Rice were to see another uptick in snaps and routes run against Green Bay, and if that were to happen, he provides significant upside catching passes from an elite QB like Mahomes.

You can grab 60-plus receiving yards for Rice at +140, 80-plus receiving yards at +330, and 100-plus receiving yards at +700 on DraftKings. Rice cleared all three of those totals just last week, and I see no reason why he can’t do it again this Sunday night.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can Love build on his recent string of solid performances? Will the Chiefs' offense wake up from their early-season slumber? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

I’m going to keep things pretty simple this week. I’ll start with the under on 43.0 points and pair that with the Packers +7.0. Buying the extra point decreases the potential payout, but with seven being such a key number in the NFL, I feel much more comfortable with the alternate spread.

After that, I’m adding two of my favorite props from above: over 45.5 rushing yards for Dillon and over 47.5 receiving yards for Rice. Dillon correlates nicely with a Packers’ cover and the under while Rice’s number just seems too low.

Add it all up, at it results in a +1100 potential payout for this week's SGP for Sunday Night Football:

Same-Game Parlay

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!

You can tail this SGP on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account and place a $5 bet below!

Week 13 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Chiefs @ Packers

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Best Bet: Under 43.0 (-112, DraftKings)

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Player Props

A.J. Dillon Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

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Tucker Kraft Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

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Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+110, FanDuel) and 2+ TDs (+700, FanDuel)

Ladder Bet

Same-Game Parlay

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