Week 13 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Seahawks @ Cowboys.
Matt LaMarca breaks down the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Dallas Cowboys from a betting angle, including best bets, parlays, and more.
We’re entering the home stretch of the NFL regular season. The playoff standings are starting to crystalize, and we’ll get some more clarity in Week 13.
The Cowboys are almost certainly headed for another trip to the postseason, but their seeding remains a major question mark. The Eagles hold a two-game lead over the Cowboys in the NFC East, but they still have one head-to-head matchup on the schedule. The difference between winning the NFC East and a Wild Card spot could be the difference between the No. 1 seed and the No. 5 seed.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost three of their past four games, dropping them to just 6-5 for the year. With three straight games against the three best teams in the NFC – the Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles – their odds of making the postseason are getting a bit precarious.
Which of these teams has the edge on Thursday night? Let’s dive into my best bets for Seahawks-Cowboys.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -9.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 47.5
- Moneyline: Seahawks +340/Cowboys -450
Both of these teams played on Thanksgiving last week, so both teams will benefit from added rest. As a result, both teams should be pretty healthy for this contest.
The Seahawks will likely be without Kenneth Walker for the second straight game, but they could get a huge boost on their offensive line. Abe Lucas has been out of the lineup since Week 1, and the Seahawks have had a disastrous right tackle situation in his absence. Stone Forsythe and Jason Peters both saw snaps at the position on Thanksgiving, and they allowed eight pressures on just 38 drop backs. Overall, no quarterback has been more pressured from the right tackle spot this season than Geno Smith (per PFF).
Lucas was far from a stud as a rookie in 2022, but he would give the team a nice boost at a position of weakness just in time for a matchup vs. the Cowboys. Micah Parsons and company can pressure the quarterback better than just about anyone, so this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on.
Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) celebrates a sack of Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (not pictured) in the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
As for the Cowboys, Parsons and Dante Fowler Jr. have yet to practice this week due to illnesses, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll be out of the lineup on Thursday. Rico Dowdle is the only other player who was listed as limited, meaning the team is basically at 100%.
That’s a scary proposition for Seattle. Dallas laid an egg against the 49ers and lost a close game vs. the Eagles, but they’ve basically steamrolled every other team they’ve faced. They’re 8-3 with an expected record of 9.0-2.0 based on point differential, and seven of their eight wins have come by at least 20 points. In other words, they’re not just beating teams; they’re humiliating them.
Last week’s game vs. the Commanders was yet another example of how the Cowboys can turn a competitive game into a laugher in the blink of an eye. They were up merely 10 points headed into the fourth quarter before rattling off a field goal, two offensive touchdowns, and a defensive touchdown in roughly nine minutes of game time. Just like that, a potential Commanders cover turned into a 35-point beat down.
Dallas has been doing that all season. Daron Bland has five touchdowns this season. There are only 34 offensive players with more scores for the year. That’s absolutely ridiculous. Dallas is surprisingly averaging just 1.5 takeaways per game – the 12th-most in the league – but they’re the only team with more than three defensive scores.
When combined with their elite offense, this team can feel like an avalanche: once they get rolling, there’s really no stopping them.
Best Bet: Cowboys -8.5 (-110; PointsBet)
I feel like an idiot for not grabbing this line when it first came out. The Cowboys were listed as 6.5-point home favorites last Wednesday, but since then, this number has risen like a helium balloon. It’s all the way up to -9.0 at most locations, but there’s still a -8.5 hanging around at PointsBet.
Given how dominant the Cowboys have looked in their wins this season, there’s not much of a reason to worry about the spread. They’re a near-perfect 8-1 ATS as favorites this season, with the lone exception coming on the road vs. the Cardinals in Week 3. The Cowboys were without three starting offensive linemen in that contest, so it’s not a huge shock that they struggled in that outing.
For his career, Dak Prescott has always taken care of business as a favorite during the regular season. He’s 47-31-2 ATS when laying points, including 14-6 ATS as a favorite of greater than a touchdown. The Cowboys may not be a reliable target for bettors during the postseason, but they’ve been very generous with covers in these types of spots during the regular season.
It seems like the public and the sharps are both interested in Dallas in this spot, with the Cowboys commanding 81% of the bets and 88% of the dollars (per the Action Network). With that much money siding with Dallas, don’t be surprised if this number continues to creep towards double-digits leading up to kickoff. As long as you can get the Cowboys at -9.5 or better, I think they’re the right side.
Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Zach Charbonnet Over 12.5 carries (-120; BetMGM)
- Play To: Over 13.5 (-120)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 14.4
The big x-factor here is obviously Walker, who still hasn’t been officially ruled out for Thursday Night Football. Still, as long as he’s sidelined, Zach Charbonnet should be looking at a sizable workload.
Over the past two contests, Charbonnet has played on 86% of the team’s snaps and handled 75% of the team’s rushing attempts. Those are bell-cow numbers. Charbonnet hasn’t been hugely productive in either contest, but he still had at least 14 carries in both.
Nov 23, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26) breaks a tackle attempt by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) during the third quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
There are some potential game script concerns, but the fact that Charbonnet still had 14 carries last week vs. the 49ers is a major positive. The Seahawks were blown out in that matchup, but Charbonnet still got his.
Finally, the Cowboys are much more vulnerable against the run that they are against the pass. They’re 31st in rushing success rate, but they’re fourth against the pass. Add it all up, and Charbonnet should be busy once again.
You can tail Charbonnet at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to access your offer:
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Dak Prescott Under 3.5 carries (+110; DraftKings)
- Play To: Under 3.5 (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 3.0
Prescott has some athleticism, but he is not someone who likes to use his legs to rack up rushing yards. He’s had three carries or fewer in seven of 11 games this season, including each of his past three.
We have Prescott projected for just three carries, so getting the under on 3.5 at plus-money is an appealing option. The matchup isn’t ideal – Seattle is far tougher against the pass than the run – but this number is too good to pass up.
You can tail Prescott at DraftKings, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below for your new account!
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown (+330, FanDuel)
Touchdown props may not offer the best odds on the board, but they sure are fun. Our touchdown chef Geoff Ulrich has been busy cooking up his favorite TD bets for Week 13, and he’s highlighted xxx as a worthy option in Seahawks-Cowboys:
One key note from the Seahawks press conferences after their poor loss to the 49ers was the distaste by Pete Carroll for how OC Shane Waldron has been using some of his players. Carroll specifically called out Jaxon Smith-Njigba in his presser:
“I feel like we’re not seeing stuff. You saw the play-making of Jaxon (Smith-Njigba against the 49ers), and he continues to show stuff that separates him from others, and we just need to give him more chances.”
The plan for Seattle seems to be more quick-tempo passing this week to get the ball in the hands of their best playmakers faster.
Smith-Njigba has seen his target share rise in the second half of the (18% on the season entering Week 13) and he’ll have the best matchup on the field against nickel corner Jourdan Lewis, who is allowing a 107.4 passer rating when targeted (career-worst for Lewis).
At anything over +300, he looks like a solid player to chase for a TD and his TD prop is also a nice prop to target if you’re in the business of creating a same-game parlay for TNF as well.
Ladder Bet
If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.
For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.
For this week, I’m going with a Tony Pollard touchdown ladder. Pollard is -165 for an anytime touchdown, which is not the best number in the world. However, you can grab at least two touchdowns for +350 and at least three touchdowns for +1600 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
It’s no secret that Pollard has been allergic to the end zone for most of the season. He has just four scores after scoring 12 times the previous season, and that was despite Ezekiel Elliott receiving most of the goal-line work. Dowdle has just one fewer touchdown as the backup RB, so it’s been a really disappointing season for Pollard as a scorer.
However, Pollard is still getting plenty of redzone and goal-line looks. He’s second in the league with 7.8 expected rushing touchdowns, and he has 1.8 expected receiving touchdowns as well (per PFF). Overall, no one has underperformed their expected touchdown total by a worse margin than Pollard.
Eventually, that luck is going to turn around, and the Seahawks are a great matchup for it to start. Not only are the Cowboys sizable home favorites, but Seattle has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game this season. It would not shock me if this was a breakout spot for Pollard, so I like the upside of multiple touchdowns way more than his anytime TD odds in this matchup.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will the Cowboys continue to steamroll the competition, or will the Seahawks bounce back after last week’s performance? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
Let’s get a little weird this week. I’m going to start my SGP with the Cowboys -9.0, and I’m going to pair it with at least two touchdowns for Pollard. What could go wrong with betting on a guy with just four TDs this season to score at least two in one game?
Where things get weird is the final leg – Charbonnet over 45.5 rushing yards. That doesn’t correlate well with a comfortable Cowboys’ victory, but I think it’s a very reasonable number given his recent workload and the Cowboys’ struggles vs. the run.
The slight negative correlation also boosts this parlay all the way up to +1221 on FanDuel, which is a pretty big number for a three-leg SGP:
You can tail the SGP at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 and your team wins! Simply click below to claim your offer:
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Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
