Matt LaMarca drops the best bets and picks for Cowboys-Bengals to close out Week 14 on Monday Night Football. 

The Monday Night Football contest for Week 14 looked a lot better before the start of the season than it does today. The Bengals will travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, but both teams are really just playing out the string at this point. It’s a game that probably would’ve been flexed out if it was possible, but at least you have the opportunity to watch Simpsons style if you so choose.

The Bengals were expected to be one of the best teams in football this season. They had what was an easy schedule on paper, an MVP-caliber quarterback in Joe Burrow, and plenty of supporting talent led by the talented pass-catching tandem of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Unfortunately, their defense has been an abject disaster. They’ve lost four games this season when scoring at least 30 points, which is tied for most in NFL history.

The Cowboys have been hit hard by injuries this season. Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland both missed large chunks of the year, while quarterback Dak Prescott will miss the remainder of the season. However, Dallas has shown some fight in recent weeks, picking up wins against the Commanders and Giants.

Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Monday Night Football.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys—42.0 total

The Bengals are favored once again in Week 14, just as they have been for much of this season. They’ve steamrolled some of the weaker opponents on their schedule, picking up easy covers vs. the Raiders, Giants, Panthers, and Browns, but they’ve struggled against tougher competition. They’ve failed to cover as favorites against the Eagles and Steelers, and they also lost outright as big favorites against the Patriots and Commanders. Add it all up, and they’re 4-4 in that split so far this season.

The Cowboys might not be a great team at the moment, but they’re not a pushover, either. Specifically, they’ve played significantly better on defense as the team has gotten healthier. Getting Parsons back is obviously a huge development, and he’s picked up 5.5 sacks in four games since returning to the lineup. They’ve had both him and Bland for their past two matchups, and they’ve picked up wins in both outings.

Still, it’s hard to imagine them stopping this Bengals unit. No matter what else has happened recently, the Bengals continue to put plenty of points on the scoreboard. They’ve had at least 27 points in four straight games, including 38 in last week’s loss to the Steelers.

The Bengals are a quintessential “over” team. They can score points on anyone, but they give them all right back on the defensive side of the ball. They’re fifth in points per game and 31st in points per game allowed, which is an elite combination for over bettors. Unsurprisingly, the Bengals have hit the over in nine of their 12 games this season.

Can the Cowboys do enough scoring to push this game over as well? Why not? Everyone else has scored against the Bengals. I wouldn’t have thought the Steelers could put up 40+ points until they did it last week. The Cowboys have also scored at least 27 points in back-to-back games, so Cooper Rush has been effective. Brandin Cooks rejoined the lineup last week, and the combo of Cooks and CeeDee Lamb is more than good enough to torch this defense.

This number has come down slightly after getting as high as 50.5, but I see no reason why these teams can’t crack 50 on Monday.

The Pick: Over 49.5 (-108; FanDuel)

Player Props for Monday Night Football

Jalen Tolbert Under 2.5 receptions (+100; BetMGM)

With Cooks back and Lamb gobbling up most of the targets in Dallas, it doesn’t leave a ton for Tolbert. His route participation dipped to just 76% last week (per the Utilization Report), and he finished with just a 9% target share. That was with Cooks running a route on just 54% of the team’s dropbacks; he could be more involved moving forward. Tolbert has gone under 2.5 receptions in three straight games, so getting the under on 2.5 at +100 feels like a steal. Both Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman have Tolbert projected for fewer than 2.5 catches, with Dwain going as low as 2.0.

Chase Brown Over 3.5 receptions (-140; ESPN Bet)

Since Zack Moss went down with an injury, Brown basically hasn’t left the field for the Bengals. He’s been an absolute workhorse, handling 83% of the snaps and 93% of the carries over their past four games. Brown has also been very involved as a pass catcher. He has a 64% route participation over that stretch, and he’s racked up a healthy 15% target share. He has at least 4 targets in four of his past five games, and he’s had as many as 11 in a game this season.

Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown (+300; FanDuel)

Ferguson has yet to score a touchdown this season, but there’s no better spot for him to get on the board. The Bengals have been victimized by tight ends all season, and they’ve surrendered an average of 0.6 touchdowns per game to the position. That’s the second-highest mark in the league.

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