Week 14 SNF Best Bets: Patrick Mahomes-Justin Herbert Duel
Geoff Ulrich delivers the Week 14 Sunday Night Football Best Bets for Chiefs-Chargers, pitting Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in an AFC West duel.
Geoff Ulrich delivers the Week 14 Sunday Night Football Best Bets for Chiefs vs. Chargers.
The Chargers head into this game off an ugly win over the Falcons where they managed just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 147 total passing yards. However, they did take advantage of 4 INTs by Kirk Cousins to win 17-13 on the road.
Things don’t get any easier for the 8-4 Chargers this week. As a Southern California team, they’ll be in a tough road environment in Kansas City against a Chiefs team that has an extra two days of rest after surviving a 19-17 win vs. the Raiders, a game Vegas gifted them after a late Aidan O’Connell fumble.
The Chargers are the current sixth seed and have some space in the playoff race, but need to be wary of not giving any of the current non-playoff teams hope with a loss.
The Chiefs are in cruise control in the division at 11-1 but have competition for the No. 1 seed from Buffalo, which is now 10-2 and has the series tiebreaker after beating them two weeks ago.
Kansas City has looked wildly unimpressive of late, but take on a Chargers team that has lost its luster a bit after a midseason surge and is dealing with some key injuries.
So will the Chiefs knock off the Chargers again, or will we get a prime-time upset this Sunday Night?
We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best bets for this week’s SNF game.
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
Chargers +4.0 (-110; bet365) vs. Chiefs -3.5 (-118; FanDuel) 43.0
Injury notes Chargers:
Questionable
Denzel Perryman LB Doubtful
Injury Notes Chiefs:
Out
Mecole Hardman WR (IR)
This is a tough spot for the Chargers. On top of having to travel to the Midwest into a cold weather environment against the Chiefs, they are also at a two-day rest disadvantage thanks to the Chiefs having last played on Black Friday.
That’s led to Kansas City also having a big advantage on the injury report front with them listing only a single offensive player—tertiary receiver Mecole Hardman was placed on IR Saturday—on the injury list this week. The Chargers, by contrast, will likely be without starting LB Denzel Perryman and could also be down starting safety Tony Jefferson and starting WR Ladd McConkey.
McConkey’s status is the big one. It’s been reported by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that McConkey’s injury isn’t major and that he’ll have a shot at playing on Sunday night. McConkey is on pace to break Keenan Allen’s rookie receiving record and had a 52% team target share last week despite playing just 29 snaps. If he misses or isn’t 100%, the Chargers' offense could stagnate, much like they did in the second half against a terrible Falcons defense.
Spread and Total
I’d play the Chiefs -3.5 down to -120 (or take the Chiefs at -4.0 if you can get +100).
Kansas City hasn’t covered in six straight games and are coming off a game they should have lost as -7.5-point favorites against the Raiders. That said, the linemakers seem to have adjusted for this recent lull with the spread being set at 3.5 to 4.0 this week, despite the rest and injury advantage enjoyed by the Chiefs.
The Chiefs covered in their first game against the Chargers and with this game in Kansas City our game model has value lurking on the Chiefs -3.5, which you can still get at -118 on FanDuel (as of writing).
I also made a play on the total in this game, taking the under at 43.0 (-110).
The Chiefs are 6-6 on totals this season, but the Chargers have been a clear under team, going 8-4 to the under on totals this year. They’re also 5-1 to the under on the road.
Their offense managed just 6.3 yards per attempt last week against a weak Atlanta defense and has fallen to 26th in success rate per rush. Even if McConkey is 100%, this team is one-dimensional on offense and may have issues moving the ball (and scoring) against a rested and healthy KC defense.
I break down the best props and more for Chargers at Chiefs below.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Best Bets:
DeAndre Hopkins Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)
Hopkins has seen better usage over his last few starts.
Last week against the Raiders the 32-year-old played on 42 snaps (nine more than the previous week) and saw his route rate jump to 18%. He responded with one of his better games, pulling in 4 catches on 9 targets for 90 yards.
The conversion rate aside, you have to like that the Chiefs were targeting Hopkins more downfield. His 31% air yards share was his highest ever recorded as a Chief and he made a number of key catches for them in that game.
The Chargers are an elite rush defense but their secondary has been exposed of late, as two of the last three teams they’ve faced have ended the game with two WRs putting up 70+ yards.
We have Hopkins projected for 49.0 yards this week, giving us a solid edge on the stat sheet as well. I'd play this up to 42.5 (-110).
Kimani Vidal Over 14.5 Rush Yards (-110; bet365)
- 20+ rush yards (+170; bet365)
- 30+ rush yards (+450; bet365)
- 40+ rush yards (+1000; bet365)
We have to read the tea leaves a bit with the Chargers backfield. With J.K. Dobbins out, Gus Edwards has led Los Angeles in rushing for the most part but has also been ineffective in spots and isn’t exactly a three-down back.
That should leave the door open for rookie Kimani Vidal, who managed a season-high 27% of the team’s rush attempts and 5.0 yards per rush (4-20) against the Falcons.
It’s a tough matchup, but Vidal is the Chargers' most explosive back.
Again, this is a backfield with a lot of moving parts and the Chargers did just elevate fourth-stringer Jaret Patterson, but that may have something to do with Hassan Haskins fumbling last game. Haskins played just 7 snaps against Atlanta.
Vidal is going to take off at some point and with his props still at extreme low levels, I liken playing his regular overs and laddering him through 20-40 yards to see if we can’t hit a bigger payday.
DJ Chark Anytime TD (+2200; FanDuel)
(From my anytime TD article for Week 14)
This one is all about reading the tea leaves a little. At the moment, the Chargers' WR-depth chart looks like this.
- Ladd McConkey (52% target share last week—questionable with shoulder and knee injuries)
- Quentin Johnston (has caught 4 of his last 17 targets)
- Joshua Palmer (has caught six of his last 15 targets)
- Jalen Reagor (0% target share last week)
Chark was active against the Falcons, but took only a handful of snaps. It’s very possible he plays a somewhat bigger role in Week 14 given the issues at WR for the Chargers and he’ll be facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed 5 TDs to opposing WRs over their last four games.
With the price being what it is (+2200; FanDuel), and Chark being an excellent downfield receiver, this one is worth a small bet for a fun longshot to sweat on Sunday Night.
Underdog Card (3-way; 5.1x)
- Ladd McConkey higher 4.5 rec
- Kimani Vidal higher 14.5 rush yards
- DeAndre Hopkins higher 41.5 receiving yards
My two props from up above (that correlate nicely together) along with a Ladd McConkey higher. Obviously, McConkey is banged up but I do think his injury issues have been baked into these lines already.
His injuries don’t sound major so if he goes, there is likely a better-than-advertised chance he plays the entire game, making this 4.5 reception mark too low against this failing pass defense.
Premium
Go FantasyLife+
Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.
