We’ve had some good primetime games recently, and we have another one on paper for Sunday Night Football in Week 15. The Ravens will travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars in a battle between AFC division leaders.

However, both teams are dealing with some question marks at the moment. The Ravens have had to overcome an injury to Mark Andrews – their best offensive weapon for quarterback Lamar Jackson – while the Jaguars have dealt with injuries on both sides of the ball.

Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s break down some of my best bets for Ravens-Jaguars.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Spread: Ravens -3.0 (-120; BetMGM)
• Total: 41.5
• Moneylines: Ravens -185/Jaguars +160

In a year where most of the top teams in the AFC have disappointed, the Ravens have established themselves as clear favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. They’re down to +240 to win the AFC, putting them slightly ahead of the Chiefs (+320; DraftKings) and Dolphins (+350; Caesars).

Statistically, it’s hard to make a case for anyone other than the Ravens as the top team in the AFC. They’ve been outstanding on both sides of the ball. They’re sixth in the league in EPA/play on offense, boasting the most efficient rushing attack in football. They lead all teams in rushing EPA and success rate, and they trail only the Dolphins in yards per attempt.

They got off to a middling start offensively under new OC Todd Monken, but they’ve taken off of late. They have at least 31 points in six of their past seven games, and they’re up to third in EPA/play over that time frame.

Defensively, the Ravens are second in EPA/play, trailing only the Browns. Cleveland had a historically good defense to start the season, but the Ravens are right on their heels.

Overall, this is arguably a top-five team on both offense and defense. Even without Andrews, this team sits at No. 2 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, with only the juggernaut 49ers grading out as better.

On the other side, it’s hard to get a feel for the Jaguars. They’re currently sitting at 8-5, but most of their advanced metrics suggest this isn’t a particularly good team. They’re expected record is just 7.1-5.9, while they’re 17th in yardage differential.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates his pass for a touchdown score to wide receiver Christian Kirk (13) during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Indianapolis Colts 37-20. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence hasn’t made the leap that some expected, ranking 10th in PFF grade and ninth in EPA + CPOE composite. Those aren’t bad numbers by any stretch, but he’s yet to truly establish himself as one of the best quarterbacks in football.

Lawrence is also reportedly playing through a high-ankle sprain, which has to limit his production somewhat. He averaged just 3.64 adjusted yards per attempt with three interceptions in his first game since suffering the injury, albeit against the Browns elite defense.

While a quarterback injury is bad, the bigger concern might be the defense.

The Jaguars started the year well on that side of the ball, but they have regressed mightily over the second half of the season. They’ve allowed at least 31 points in three of their past five games, all of which have been losses. Surrendering 31 points to San Francisco is not a big deal, but 31+ to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco in back-to-back weeks? That is a major red flag.

The Jaguars aren’t really in danger of missing the postseason thanks to an easy schedule down the stretch, but they’re going to need to figure some things out if they’re going to make any noise in January.

Best Bet: Ravens -3.5 (+100; DraftKings)

There are really only two choices for betting the Ravens at the moment: -3.0 at approximately -120, or -3.5 at +100. There are merits for both sides. Three is the most important key number in NFL betting, so paying 20 cents of juice to get from 3.5 to 3.0 is certainly worth considering.

That said, in this exact scenario, I’m fine with getting the “worse” number at +100.

I personally have the Ravens favored by closer to five points in my power ratings, so I’m showing plenty of value with both numbers.

Not only are the Ravens the better team – potentially by a pretty wide margin – but this is a spot where Lamar Jackson has historically thrived. Jackson is 23-13 ATS on the road during the regular season, including 7-3 as a road favorite of 3.5 points or fewer.

The Ravens were one of the first bets I locked into the NFL Bet Tracker this week, and I wrote about them in my Early Lines article. The line hasn’t moved as much as I anticipated, but the sharps have shown a clear lean towards Baltimore. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter if this number is -3.0 or -3.5; the Ravens are the correct side in this matchup.

You can tail the -3.5 at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up and place your first bet of at least $5 below!

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Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Travis Etienne Under 3.5 receptions (-120; BetMGM)

• Bet To: Under 3.5 (-150)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 2.5

Etienne has had lots of success as a receiver recently, racking up four catches in three straight games. That said, Lawrence has thrown the ball A LOT of late.

He had a season-high 50 pass attempts in his last game, so the fact that Etienne only saw four targets is actually a bad thing. His 9% target share in that contest was his second-lowest mark of the year, while his 14% TPRR was his fifth-lowest.

As long as Lawrence doesn’t have to throw the ball 50 times this week – we have him projected for a modest 33 attempts – Etienne is due for some regression. We currently have him projected for just 2.5 receptions, so the under on 3.5 is a nice value at -120.

You can tail the Etienne under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!

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Evan Engram Over 5.5 receptions (-150; DraftKings)

• Bet To: Over 5.5 (-175)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 6.1

While I think most of the Jags’ pass-catchers are looking at some regression after last week’s performance, Engram stands out as one of the outliers.

His volume was inflated – 12 targets, 11 catches, 95 yards, and two touchdowns – but his underlying metrics were pretty close to his season averages. He commanded 24% of the team’s targets and was targeted on 27% of his routes run.

With Christian Kirk out of the lineup, Engram should continue to see a slight boost to his target numbers. He was already one of football's most prominently-featured tight ends, racking up at least six catches in more than half of his games.

The Ravens aren’t a great matchup for tight ends, but this number is simply too low given Engram’s usage and the Jags injury situation. I’d bet the over up to 6.1 and would consider some alternate totals as well.

Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown (+105; FanDuel)

Here’s what Geoff Ulrich had to say about Etienne in his Week 15 touchdown scorers piece:

The Jaguars lead back has absolutely dominated the workload all season, specifically in the red zone where he’s taken 36 of the total 44 RB touches for Jacksonville this season. Since Week 3, no RB other than Etienne has found the end zone for Jacksonville. 

The Ravens may not be all that bad a matchup either. Since Week 10 they are dead last in success rate and EPA against the run. Last week they allowed Kyren Williams to bust free for a big game and in Weeks 10 and 11 they allowed TDs to opposing RBs. Etienne has 10 TDs on the season and nine of those TDs have come over his last nine games. 

You could also look to play him in the first TD market as the Jaguars have scored first in nine of 13 games this season and should be looking to establish a ground game quickly given the potential poor weather.

You can tail the anytime TD and our Same-Game Parlay (more on that below) at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of $5 or more on a team and they win!

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Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750.

If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

Dec 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) leaps to make a catch during the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

This week, I’m taking a look at Odell Beckham Jr. in the alternate market.

OBJ started the year slowly but has become a focal point of the Ravens’ passing attack. He’s still not an every-snap player, but when he’s on the field, there’s a good chance the ball is coming his way. He’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in three straight games, and he’s been above 40% in two of them.

Beckham had a season-high 10 targets last week, which he turned into 97 yards and a touchdown. He had 116 yards two weeks prior, so he’s displayed the ability to put together big finishes.

You can grab 50+ receiving yards for Beckham at +142, 70+ receiving yards at +310, and 100+ receiving yards at +800 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Given how poor the Jaguars’ defense has looked, it would not shock me if OBJ put together another big stat line on Sunday night.

Same-Game Parlay (+1330; FanDuel)

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will the Ravens continue to dominate, or can the Jaguars right the ship at home? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

We’re going to keep things pretty simple here with a three-leg SGP. That said, it would still result in a pretty tasty payout.

I’m going to start by taking the Ravens up to -6.5 on the alternate spread. I’m a firm believer that the Ravens should win this game, and I think there’s a chance they win it pretty comfortably.

After that, I’m stealing the anytime TD for Etienne from Geoff and pairing it with at least 50 receiving yards for Odell. Those three legs bring up to +1330:

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!