Week 16 Monday Night Football Best Bets: Packers Look to Freeze Out Saints
Matt LaMarca breaks down the Week 16 Monday Night Football Best bets for the matchup between the Packers and Saints, focusing the game's line and player props.
Matt LaMarca breaks down the Week 16 Monday Night Football best bets for the matchup between the Packers and Saints.
There has been a ton of football on television this weekend, and we’re only going to get more as we cruise through the holiday season. Unfortunately, the Monday Night Football game in Week 16 doesn’t stand out as particularly appealing. The shorthanded Saints will travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers, and they’re listed as two-touchdown underdogs.
New Orleans has dealt with injuries all season, and things have reached critical levels in recent weeks. They’re going to be without Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill vs. the Packers, who are arguably their five best offensive players. Spencer Rattler will take over at quarterback after nearly engineering a comeback win last week, but he’ll have very little to work with.
Meanwhile, the Packers are starting to roll. They did suffer a three-point loss to the Lions two weeks ago, but they’ve managed to win four of five games since their bye week. Their past three wins have all come by at least 13 points, so they appear to be rounding into form heading into the playoffs for the second straight year.
Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Monday Night Football.
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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-14.0)—42.5 total
I am always hesitant to back a big favorite. In the NFL, 14 points is a TON and teams laying at least 14 points are merely 79-85-5 ATS since 2005. They’re 9-12 over the past three seasons, though they have gone 2-1 so far in 2024-25.
Still, I just don’t know how the Saints can keep this game competitive. They were down 17 points at home last week to the Commanders before Washington basically stopped trying. Rattler gave the team a spark after replacing the ineffective Jake Haener, but I don’t think he’s much better overall. Rattler has already started three games this season, and the Saints are 0-3 and have been outscored by at least 18 points in all three outings.
Their three previous losses with Rattler under center have come against the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers. Those are all good teams that will likely be in the playoffs this season … but none of them are quite as good as the Packers. They’re a top-8 team in EPA per play both offensively and defensively this season, and they’ve been No. 4 offensively since returning from their Week 10 bye.
Unlike with the Commanders last week, the Packers will have the benefit of home field on Monday night. Lambeau Field provides the Packers with one of the biggest home-field boosts in football, and Matt LaFleur has been elite at covering the spread at home since taking over as coach. He’s 30-17 ATS at Lambeau during the regular season, including 24-14 ATS as a home favorite.
With the Packers rounding into form, this feels like it should be a blowout. Weird things happen in the NFL, but the Saints may have less healthy NFL talent than any team in football at the moment. I recommended grabbing this line at -13.0 earlier this week, but I still think you can play the Packers at -14.0. This is already up to -14.5 at FanDuel, so it’s possible this closes even higher come kickoff.
The Pick: Packers -14.0 (-110; DraftKings)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Christian Watson Under 47.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)
The Packers have the deepest receiving corps in the league, with four legit options working in at the position. That doesn’t even include the tight ends and running backs, who are also threats in the passing game. That makes under 47.5 receiving yards for Watson feel a bit too high, especially in a game where the Packers might not have to throw the ball all that often. Watson has a wide range of outcomes every week, and he already has five games this season with 13 receiving yards or fewer.
Jordan Love Over 5.5 rushing yards (-115; BetMGM)
This number feels just a smidge too low for Love. He hasn’t done as much running this year as he did in his first year as a starter, but he’s still averaged 6.3 rushing yards per game. Love can potentially get there with just one carry vs. the Saints, and if this game gets really ugly, he might not even be on the field by the time the QB kneels come around.
Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown scorer (+650; DraftKings)
Someone has to catch the ball for the Saints, and their tight ends seem like the most likely candidates. Johnson had a touchdown two weeks ago, and he had a season-high in route participation last week. It’s possible that the Saints don’t get on the board at all this week, but +650 for Johnson to find the paint feels a bit too light.
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