Week 16 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Patriots @ Broncos.

We’ve got some exciting contests on the docket for Week 16, but Sunday Night Football isn’t one of them.

The Broncos will host the Patriots in Denver in what is essentially a must-win game. The Broncos are on the fringes of the AFC Wild Card, and another loss would basically eliminate them from contention. A win would see their postseason odds improve to 32%, while a loss drops them to 3%.

For the Patriots, nothing has gone right this season.

They’ve tried multiple quarterbacks, and neither one has had any success. Their defense has played well at times, but their offense has not been able to take advantage. New England made history by becoming the first team since 1938 to allow 10 points or fewer in three straight games and lose all of them.

Can the Broncos take care of business at home, or can the Patriots play spoiler? Let’s dive into some of my best bets for Sunday Night Football.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -7.5 (-105; BetMGM)
Total: 35.0
Moneylines: Patriots +275/Broncos -350

The fact that the Broncos still have a chance of making the postseason is a minor miracle considering how they started.

They won just one of their first six games, and they had some humiliating losses along the way. They surrendered 70 points and 726 yards of total offense to the Dolphins in Week 3, and they lost by double-digits at home to the lowly Jets.

However, they managed to turn the ship around with two straight wins heading into their bye week. That included a win over the Chiefs, who have dominated the AFC West since Patrick Mahomes came to town. They followed that up with three straight wins after their bye week before dropping two of their past three games.

Last week’s contest vs. the Lions was a bit concerning. There’s no shame in letting the Lions’ offense hang 42 points on you – they’re one of the best offenses in football – but they couldn’t do anything against a struggling Lions defense. Detroit entered that game 30th in EPA/play defensively since Week 7, yet the Broncos managed just 287 yards of total offense.

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scrambles in the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

They’ll face a much stiffer test on offense vs. the Patriots. New England has had an elite run defense all season, so Russell Wilson is going to have to make more throws than he did last week to move the ball.

On the other side, the Patriots enter this contest in even worse shape than usual. They’re without Rhamondre Stevenson and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who are two of their best weapons. They’ve also ruled out Jabril Peppers, while nine other players are listed as questionable. Most of those players were at least able to get in a limited practice on Friday – including Trent Brown and Christian Barmore – but they’re still extremely banged up.

Bailey Zappe will make the start at quarterback for the fourth straight game. He did lead the team to one win, but his overall metrics have been disappointing. He’s averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt for the year, and he’s thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (four). Since taking over as the starter, he’s 26th among 36 quarterbacks with at least 40 plays in EPA + CPOE composite.

Zappe will have his hands full against the Broncos, who are eighth in EPA/play defensively since Week 7. They’ve allowed 22 points or less to eight of their past nine opponents, with the lone exception being last week’s performance vs. the Lions.

Best Bet: Under 35.5 (-110; Caesars)

I’m not going out on a huge limb here – I don’t think either of these offenses will be particularly effective. The Patriots’ offensive futility has been well-documented, but the Broncos aren’t much better. They’re 25th in yards per game and 20th in EPA/play.

The Broncos have also been more efficient running the ball than throwing it, so the matchup vs. the Patriots is a bad one for them. Wilson is going to need to make plays with his arm, and while he’s having a better season than he did last year, he still doesn’t look like the same player he was in his prime.

The “primetime under” trend has lost some steam recently, but they remain extremely profitable overall. Unders in Sunday and Monday Night Football are a ridiculous 26-7 this season, and they’re 109-61-3 over the past five years.

These two squads are a combined 11-17 to the under in 2023, and I see no reason why they can’t combine for another one on Sunday night.

You can tail the under at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Russell Wilson Over 19.5 rushing yards (-114; FanDuel)

Bet To: Over 19.5 (-125)
Fantasy Life Projection: 19.6

We’re not showing a ton of value with the over on Wilson’s rushing prop, but I think our projection is a bit conservative. One area where Wilson has looked more like the Seattle version of himself is with his legs. He’s had a designed run rate of at least 17% in four straight weeks, and he’s had at least six carries in six of his past seven games. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in his past two, tallying just 11 total yards, but he’s had eight games with at least 21 rushing yards so far this season.

With his volume continuing to increase, this seems like a prime positive regression spot. Wilson’s rushing prop is as high as 22.5 yards at other locations, so getting the over on 19.5 at FanDuel is a solid investment.

You can tail the over at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of just $5 or more when signing up below!

Javonte Williams Under 15.5 carries (-115; PointsBet)

Bet To: Under 15.5 (-135)
Fantasy Life Projection: 14.9

The increased rushing workload for Wilson has hurt his running back. Williams has 13 totes or less in three of his past five games, and he’s averaged just 14.2 carries per game over that time frame.

His utilization numbers don’t look great either. He remains the team’s top option at the position, but Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin are also seeing consistent work on a weekly basis.

Add in a tough matchup vs. the Patriots, and under 15.5 carries has plenty of merit at -115.

Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown (+150; FanDuel)

Sutton is the new Cris Carter – all he does is catch touchdowns.

He entered this season with 14 touchdowns in 65 games, so naturally, he has 10 touchdowns in 14 games this season.

Sutton isn’t a true alpha receiver from a volume perspective – he owns a 23% target share for the year – but he’s the guy producing the big plays. He has 39% of the team’s air yards and 44% of their endzone targets, so he’s the guy hanging points on the scoreboard.

The Patriots aren’t a great matchup to find the paint – they’ve allowed an average of 1.2 passing touchdowns per game – but they’ve been even stingier at keeping running backs out of the paint. It’s more likely that a receiving gets to dust off his dancing shoes in this matchup, and Sutton is that guy for the Broncos.

For more touchdown props, make sure to check out Geoff Ulrich’s primer for Week 16.

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750.

If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

Dec 3, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

These two squads don’t stand out as great ladder targets, but DeVante Parker is someone who has my eye. The Patriots are banged up at the skill positions, and Parker has taken on some added responsibilities. He led the team with an 89% route rate in Week 15, and his 17% target share was tied for the second-highest mark on the squad. The only player with a better mark was Hunter Henry, who has already been ruled out for this contest.

Parker’s receiving props are pretty reasonable, and we can get good prices on his alternate lines. You can grab 50+ yards at +154, 70+ yards at +320, and 100+ yards at +880 on FanDuel.

Is Parker going to clear those thresholds all that often? No, but I think he’s more likely than usual this week with all the Patriots’ injuries.

Same-Game Parlay (+1436; FanDuel)

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will the defenses dominate this contest, or can one of the offenses break through? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

I’m building this SGP on the premise that the Patriots can’t really score. That seems like a pretty reasonable assumption based on what we’ve seen for most of the season.

That starts with Under 35.5 points, and I’m pairing that with the Broncos -6.5. I’m buying down under the key number of seven, giving us a smidge of added security.

After that, I’m adding in the over on Wilson’s rushing prop and an anytime touchdown for Sutton. Pairing an anytime TD with an under might not make the most sense, but that negative correlation increases the odds to +1436. Somebody has to score the ball for the Broncos to cover the 6.5, and I’m banking on Sutton being that guy.

Add it all up, and it looks a little something like this:

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!