Week 16 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Saints @ Rams.

It’s the holiday season, and the NFL is offering up a big selection of games across four days. The action gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Rams, with both teams fighting for a spot in the postseason.

Both squads are currently sitting at 7-7, but the Saints have more outs for the playoffs. They’re still very live in the wide open NFC South, but both teams also have a chance to earn a Wild Card spot.

The Rams are currently holding down the No. 7 spot in the NFC, and a win over the Saints would put them in great position. Their current postseason odds (per NFL.com) sit at 52%, and a win would increase that figure to 73%. The Saints current postseason odds are just 41%, but a win over the Rams would jump them up to 70%. Which ever team loses would see their odds fall precipitously – the Rams to 15%, the Saints to 24%.

In other words, the importance of this game cannot be understated.

Who has the edge in this contest? Let’s dive into my favorite bets for Thursday Night Football.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -4.0 (-110; BetMGM)
Total: 46.0
Moneylines: Saints +165/Rams -200

The Rams postseason odds looked bleak at one point, but wins in four of their past five games have put them right back in the thick of things. Their only loss over that time frame was in Baltimore vs. the Ravens, and even that game was an overtime affair. The Ravens have been the second-best team in football this season – only the 49ers have been better – and the Rams went toe-to-toe with them on the road. In other words, this team is playing as well as just about anyone at this point.

When the Rams’ offense has been healthy this season, it has been one of the best in football. Not much was expected of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams at the start of the season, but they’ve been elite contributors. Nacua has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards through his first 14 games, setting the Rams’ rookie record in the process, and he has an outside chance of breaking the all-time rookie record. Williams has averaged an electric 5.1 yards per carry on 186 attempts, grading out as the fourth-best runner per PFF.

Oct 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) runs past Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (26) during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Pairing those two with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp has resulted in some outstanding production for the offense overall. They’re 10th in EPA/play and eighth in yards per game, and that still undersells how good this unit has been. Since Williams returned to the lineup from an injury in Week 12, they’re second in EPA/play.

Not much was expected of the Rams defensively this season, but they’ve been a perfectly mediocre unit. They’re relying on a bunch of unproven players, but a defense can only be so bad with Aaron Donald dominating on the interior. He’s the No. 3 interior defender per PFF this season, and No. 2 at rushing the passer.

On the other side, the Saints have had an interesting season. For the most part, they’ve been pretty solid on both sides of the ball. They’re a top-12 unit in points per game scored and allowed, and they’re top 14 in yardage. Add it all up, and they’re eighth in scoring differential and 10th in yardage differential. Those are not what you’d expect to see from a .500 ball club.

Unsurprisingly, the Saints have an expected record of 8.2.-5.8, so they’ve underperformed their expected scoring differential by more than a full win. That suggests they’re a progression candidate moving forward.

What plagued the Saints early in the season was poor red zone efficiency. They’ve been much better in that department of late – they’ve converted 90% of their red zone trips into touchdowns over the past three weeks – but they still rank just 21st in that department for the year.

The Saints also have some good news on the injury front. Chris Olave is expected to return after missing last week’s contest, while Kendre Miller and Payton Turner also got in limited practice sessions. Ryan Ramczyk was a DNP, but the rest of the injury situation looks pretty good for a team that has dealt with plenty of absences recently.

Best Bet: Saints +4.5 (-115; FanDuel)

While this line is at 4.0 across most of the industry, a 4.5 has popped on FanDuel. The Rams are getting the vast majority of the betting action in this contest – 94% of the bets and 85% of the dollars per the Action Network – so the other sportsbooks could follow suit.

Four is a key number in NFL betting, and while it’s not quite as important as three, the difference between 4.0 and 4.5 is significant. It makes the Saints way more appealing on FanDuel than they are across the rest of the industry.

The Saints are the better defensive team in this matchup, and the gap between the two offenses isn’t all that start. It should be noted that the Saints have played one of the easiest schedules in football, but they’ve held their own against basically everyone this season. Only one of their seven losses has come by double-digits, and that was against the Buccaneers back in Week 4.

Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) in action against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Stafford also has a bit of a dubious track record as a favorite. He’s 23-34 ATS for his career when laying more than a field goal, including 9-11 ATS as a member of the Rams. He has gone 3-1 in that split this season, but those wins have come against the Cardinals, Commanders, and Joe Flacco-led Browns. I would argue that this Saints squad is much better than all of those teams.

The Saints have burned me multiple times this season, but I’m going back to the well with them one more time. The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have the Saints as slightly better than the Rams on a neutral field, so getting more than a field goal in this spot is generous.

You can tail the Saints at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets by signing up and placing a bet of at least $5 below!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Derek Carr Under 33.5 pass attempts (-114; FanDuel)

Play To: Under 32.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 35.0

The Fantasy Life projections are very bullish on this prop, but I think the under on 33.5 pass attempts for Derek Carr offers plenty of value. The Saints have been a very run-heavy team of late, posting a Pass Rate Over Expectation of -5%, -14.01%, -2%, and +1% over their past four contests. As a result, Carr has attempted 28 passes or fewer in three straight games, and he’s averaged 28.5 attempts over his past four contests.

Carr’s decrease in volume has stemmed from an increase in efficiency for Alvin Kamara. Kamara averaged just 3.64 yards per attempt through his first six contests, so the Saints needed to rely on the passing attack. Over the past five games, Kamara has averaged 4.30. Taysom Hill is also always a threat to steal some work at quarterback, so there are multiple ways for Carr to hit the under in this spot.

Of course, if the Saints fall into an early hole, the odds of winning this prop decrease exponentially. I personally like the Saints to cover, so I’m not particularly worried about that. It’s a natural partner to pair with the Saints in a same-game parlay, but I think there’s merit to playing this wager straight as well.

Kyren Williams Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)

Bet To: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 21.5

Kyen Williams has come out of nowhere to become one of the most productive backs in football. He’s been most potent on the ground this season, but the Rams have gotten him increasingly involved in the passing attack since he returned from injury. He’s been targeted on at least 22% of his routes run in three of his past four contests, and he had a season-high 23% target share in his last contest.

Williams caught five balls for just three yards in that game, but the volume is a major plus for his outlook moving forward. He’s averaged three catches and nearly 20 yards per game as a receiver this season, and with his role increasing, he could improve on those numbers vs. the Saints.

You can tail Williams at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting today!

Rashid Shaheed Anytime Touchdown (+350, FanDuel)

This game has a healthy total, so there should be a fair bit of touchdowns to go around. That makes targeting players in the anytime touchdown market a bit more appealing than in some of our recent Thursday Night Football contests.

Geoff Ulrich highlights Rashid Shaheed as a worthy anytime touchdown target for Saints-Rams:

Matchup-wise, this is a spot that favors the Saints receivers. The Rams have a solid top corner in Akhello Witherspoon but, after that, it gets thin fast. Los Angeles’ secondary has been burned for five TDs by opposing WRs over the last two weeks, including two scores by Washington speedster Curtis Samuel in Week 15, who got behind the defense early in the game for a 23-yard score.

The Saints have a handful of intriguing names after Chris Olave on the depth chart but none more than Rashid Shaheed, who brings the kind of hot and nasty speed that has given the Rams lots of trouble these past two weeks. Shaheed had a couple of chances for deep plays/TDs last week against the Giants but couldn’t connect. This week may be different. Olave will be back taking prime coverage and the dome environment and pace of these two offenses should allow Shaheed better chances to land a big play or score.

I like playing Shaheed for anytime TD in this spot and think there’s a potential for a blowup game as well, so wouldn’t hesitate to consider ladder betting him up through 50/75/100 yards or combining his yards, receptions, and TD props in a same-game parlay.

For all of Geoff’s touchdown picks, make sure to check out his full touchdown primer for NFL Week 16.

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750.

If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

I’m going to try something a little different this week. Instead of trying to climb up the ladder – I did enough of that hanging my Christmas lights – let’s go down the ladder instead. I’m targeting Under 79.5 (+130), Under 69.5 (+210), and Under 54.5 (+500) rushing yards for Williams on DraftKings.

Dec 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) runs the ball against Washington Commanders linebacker Khaleke Hudson (47) during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

While Williams has been fantastic this season, the Saints are not an ideal matchup. They’re sixth in DvP vs. opposing running backs this season, and they’re eighth in rushing EPA against for the year. They’ve been a bit more vulnerable on the ground recently, but this is still a subpar matchup.

Williams is also not infallible. He has four games this season with 53 rushing yards or fewer, so it’s not impossible for the Saints to bottle him up. Most of those contests did come early in the season, and Williams has seen a ton of volume of late. However, the Rams have been winning those contests by comfortable margins. If the Saints can get out ahead on Thursday, Williams could be less effective than usual on the ground.

Same-Game Parlay (+1248; FanDuel)

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can the Saints secure a road upset, or will the Rams take care of business? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

This week, I’m looking at an SGP that focuses on what a Saints’ victory would look like. That obviously starts with taking the Saints on the moneyline.

After that, I’m looking for any anytime touchdown for Kamara – he’s scored three times in his past three games – and the under on Carr’s passing yard prop. Unfortunately, we can’t pair passing attempts with our SGP on FanDuel, but passing yards works nearly as well. If the Saints have their way, I’m assuming they’d like to employ another run-heavy game script.

Finally, I’m going to add in the over on Williams’ receiving prop. That number seems too low to begin with, and if the Rams are in a trailing game script, he could be even busier than usual catching passes.

Add it all up, and it results in a potential +1248 payout:

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!