Week 17 Do-Or-Die Saturday and NFL MVP Debate
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues, a betting breakdown on 3 NFL games today, injury update, and an NFL MVP debate.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
This is shaping up to be a relatively drama-free end to the NFL regular season. Four teams have already clinched playoff spots in the NFC, while five have done so in the AFC. The Chiefs have also locked up the No. 1 seed in their conference, so the top seeds have little to play for.
That said, there are still some important contests that are going to happen down the stretch.
Things get started on Saturday with two games with big playoff implications. That starts with the Bengals hosting the Broncos at 4:30 p.m. ET—Chargers-Patriots leads off Saturday, but LA has all but locked up a playoff bid (see below). It seemed unlikely that Bengals-Broncos would mean much a few weeks ago, but the Broncos' loss to the Chargers last Thursday has opened the door. If the Bengals can knock off the Broncos in Cincinnati—and they’re currently listed as 3.5-point favorites—it creates a scenario where a few additional teams to get in the mix in Week 18. The Bengals, Colts, and Dolphins are all two games behind the Broncos in the standings, so they could force a tie if they win out and the Broncos lose out.
The big caveat here is that the Broncos' final matchup will come against the Chiefs. That’s a nightmare matchup on paper, but with the Chiefs already clinching the No. 1 seed, they have the potential to rest their starters. It remains to be seen if that will happen. With the Chiefs playing on Wednesday in Week 17, if they choose to rest their starters in Week 18, they’ll go nearly a full month without playing a competitive contest. Does Andy Reid want to go that route? This is a man who still occasionally plays his starters in the preseason, so we could still see Patrick Mahomes and Co. for at least a couple of drives.
A Bengals’ win on Saturday is a win for all NFL fans. Not only is late-season drama fun, but any scenario that includes the Bengals in the playoff picture is appealing. They’ve routinely turned in some of the most entertaining games of the year, and Joe Burrow has put together an MVP-like campaign. Who doesn’t want to see this team in the playoffs?
The other game features the Rams vs. the Cardinals. While Arizona has officially been eliminated from playoff contention, the Rams are trying to hold off the Seahawks in the NFC West. If they beat the Cardinals this week, there’s a chance that they clinch a playoff spot. If not, it comes down to a head-to-head matchup in Week 18.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know for Saturday’s three-game slate and the best way to attack these games in the betting market.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: Injuries you need to know for the Week 17 slate
- NFL Saturday: Back Joey B and the Bengals?
- NFL Futures: Breaking down a hotly contested MVP race
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏈 So many great bowl games. Thor, Coach Gene, and Froton go live at 10 a.m. ET with their best bets.
🚑 The best ability is availability. Ian and Dwain break down the NFL Week 17 injury report.
💰 We’re entering "secure the bag SZN” in the NFL. Ulrich breaks down the contract incentives and milestones to know over the final two weeks.
🏈 Who’s finding the paint in Week 17? Four anytime-touchdown scorer bets to consider.
🏆 Take a victory lap, team. Some of our crew’s best calls for the 2023-24 season.
⛏ The action doesn’t stop with the end of the NFL regular season. Registration is open for playoff Guillotine Leagues!
NFL Week 17 Saturday Best Bets
by Matt LaMarca
Chargers (-4.5) at Patriots—42.5 total
The Chargers are also technically still on the playoff bubble, but they are much more entrenched than the Broncos. Even with a loss to the Patriots on Saturday, their playoff odds still sit at 84% per NFL.com. They beat the Broncos in both of their head-to-head matchups this season, so they own the crucial tiebreaker between those two squads.
They’ll have a bit of extra rest after playing on Thursday in Week 16, but they’ll have to travel east to take on the Patriots on Saturday. That’s not the easiest spot, especially when factoring in the December weather in New England.
However, the Chargers appeared to have dodged a bullet weather-wise. It is expected to be raining during the game, but the rest of the forecast is about as good as possible for December in Foxborough. The fact that it’s rain in the forecast instead of snow tells you all you really need to know.
That leads me toward the over in this matchup. The Patriots have been an over team this season, going 9-6, while the Chargers have regressed badly on defense of late. They’ve surrendered at least 27 points in back-to-back games, and the Patriots have been frisky offensively with Drake Maye under center.
The sharps ultimately like the over in this contest, and I have no problem jumping on board.
The Pick: Over 42.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Broncos at Bengals (-3.5)—50.0 total
If only the Bengals had a defense. Their offense is undoubtedly one of the best in football, and they’ve already lost four games this season when they’ve scored 30+ points. That’s tied for a new NFL record, and they still have two games left to play.
However, the defense has made some positive strides in recent weeks. Limiting Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns to just 6 points doesn’t earn you much credit, but they limited their past two opponents to 47 total. That’s still not great, but it’s good enough with the way Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and the rest of the offense is currently playing.
If they can keep the Broncos under 30, I like their chances of winning and covering. The Broncos have won a bunch of games recently, but they have not played their best football. They were gifted a win by the Colts two weeks ago, and they could’ve lost to the Browns if not for two Jameis Winston pick-sixes. Burrow simply isn’t going to make the same types of mistakes that Winston and Anthony Richardson have against this unit.
The Bengals have been a major disappointment all year, but this is their chance to make one final stand. I expect them to take advantage.
The Pick: Bengals -3.5 (+100; DraftKings)
Cardinals at Rams (-6.5)—47.5 total
This is the game where I feel the least confident in a side or total. I think the Rams should win, but a full touchdown might be a smidge too much.
Instead, I’m going to look toward the prop market. One of my favorite ways to use the Prop Finder tool is to find discrepancies in the marketplace. I’m seeing that with Kyler Murray’s rushing prop at the moment. It’s currently listed at 28.5 on FanDuel, but that figure is just 24.5 on BetMGM. That’s a really wide gap that we don’t see very often, so I’m looking to take advantage.
Both Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman have Murray projected for exactly 29 rushing yards vs. the Rams, so there’s a decent edge with over 24.5. He’s averaged more than 34 rushing yards per game so far this season, and he had 59 rushing yards in his first outing vs. the Rams.
The Pick: Kyler Murray Over 24.5 rushing yards (-115; BetMGM)
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The Great MVP Debate
by Matt LaMarca
Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson. That debate seemed all but settled a few weeks ago, but Lamar’s recent play has reopened the conversation. Allen is down to -200 to win the MVP on DraftKings, while Jackson’s best price is +180 on FanDuel.
From a statistical standpoint, it’s hard to argue that Jackson hasn’t had the better season. He’s been way better than he was last year, leading the league in a host of different passing categories (touchdown passes, QBR, adjusted yards per attempt, and others). Jackson is also delivering his usual brilliance on the ground, racking up 53.3 yards per game with 4 additional scores.
Statistically, it’s the type of season that warrants an MVP. There have only been seven previous seasons where a QB threw for at least 35 touchdown passes with six or fewer interceptions, and six times that player has won the MVP. The only exception was in 2020 when both Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes accomplished that feat. Rodgers ultimately took home the MVP, while Mahomes finished third.
This is not to say that Allen hasn’t had a good season. He’s had an amazing season. He would be a deserving winner in a lot of previous years, but the biggest reason he’s the favorite hangs on two key points:
The Bills have had a better season
He’s never won MVP, while Jackson already has two
Should either of those points really matter? The Bills are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but is that any better than the Ravens being No. 3? Neither team is going to get a bye, and the Bills have undoubtedly had the easier schedule. If the Ravens were in the AFC East, it’s possible that they have an even better record than the Bills have currently.
I keep coming back to the head-to-head matchup between these players. It was a long time ago, but Lamar and the Ravens absolutely dominated, 35-10, while Allen had one of his worst games of the year. Shouldn’t that count for something?
Ultimately, I’m taking the value with Lamar at +180 to win for the second straight year. He has more to play for than Allen down the stretch, and Allen might not even suit up in Week 18. Even if he does, he’ll have to play in cold weather against the Jets and Patriots in his final two outings, and he didn’t exactly light up the Patriots in Week 16.
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