We're nearing the finish line. Week 17 features the penultimate Sunday Night Football game of the regular season, and it will help decide fantasy leagues and best ball contests around the world.

There are plenty of real-life consequences for the game as well. The Packers and Vikings are both hoping to secure an NFC Wild Card spot with both teams currently sitting at 7-8. Whichever team wins this contest will see their playoff odds increase to approximately 50% while the loser's playoff probability will dip into the single digits.

Minnesota will have the benefit of home field advantage in this matchup, and they managed to beat the Packers by 14 points in Green Bay earlier this season. Can the Vikings sweep the series in 2023 and pick up another victory, or will the Packers get some revenge? Let’s dive into the best bets for Sunday Night Football.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Vikings -1.0 (-110, BetMGM)
• Total: 43.5
• Moneylines: Packers -105 / Vikings -115

The big news in this contest is that Minnesota will be making yet another switch at QB. After Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens both failed in their short-lived tenures as the starter, rookie Jaren Hall will get an opportunity to start in a must-win game.

Hall technically got the first crack at the starting job after Kirk Cousins went down with an injury, but he exited quickly after suffering an injury of his own. He ultimately threw just six passes against the Falcons, but his 83% completion rate and 13.0 adjusted yards per attempt in that small sample size was impressive. Hall also brings some athleticism to the table with a 4.69 40-yard dash time, so he has an intriguing skill set.

Still, it’s fair to be skeptical of Hall. The rookie didn’t find success in college until his final season, having broken out at the ripe old age of 23.5 years, which puts him in the first percentile. Dominating against kids four or five years younger than you isn’t that impressive, and these kinds of players tend to struggle at the NFL level.

Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall (16) passes the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Hall also wasn’t particularly impressive during the preseason. He completed just 26 of 48 passes for 264 yards, one TD, and one INT while taking nine sacks.

Going to an untested rookie in a must-win game is a curious decision to say the least. I think that Hall is a clear downgrade from Mullens and Dobbs, and Matthew Freedman has him as a 1.1-point downgrade compared to Mullens.

The good news for Hall is that he’ll at least have Justin Jefferson, who remains among the best WRs in the league. Jefferson reminded everyone of that fact last week when he torched the Lions for six catches for 141 yards and a TD.

Jefferson should have a significant advantage against the Packers’ cornerbacks, who are operating at far from full strength. Jaire Alexander has been suspended after deciding to name himself a captain last week at Carolina, and Eric Stokes is injured. Green Bay's remaining three cornerbacks rank 81st, 89th, and 95th at the position in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade.

Unfortunately for the Packers, those aren’t the only absences for this game. Their pass-catchers are also banged up with Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave both listed as doubtful and Dontayvion Wicks listed as questionable. Wicks didn't practice at all this week, so he could be on the doubtful side of questionable as well.

However, it hasn’t really mattered who Jordan Love has had available of late; he’s been playing really good football. Love has averaged 8.14 adjusted yards per attempt over his last eight games with 16 TD passes and just three INTs. Over that time frame, Love also ranks third in the league in EPA + CPOE composite behind only Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott.

Love gives the Packers a significant edge over the Vikings at the most important position in football, which could ultimately make the difference in what's projected to be a close game.

Best Bet: Packers +1.0 (-108, DraftKings)

There has been some sharp action on the Vikings already, as the Packers are dealing with some key absences. Not having Alexander could prove problematic in slowing down Jefferson, and starting linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who's been one of Green Bay's better players on defense, is listed as doubtful as well.

Still, I just can’t pass up the opportunity to back Love as an underdog against Hall. Nothing that Hall has done to this point shows that he deserves to be a starting QB in the NFL, and I expect him to struggle mightily. Kevin O’Connell has gotten the best out of journeymen like Dobbs and Mullens, but this might be too big an ask.

The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings has Green Bay as roughly a full point better than Minnesota on a neutral field, so this line is too far off even after factoring in home field advantage. On top of that, home field advantage seems to be mitigated in divisional matchups, as divisional road underdogs have gone 656-565-35 ATS since 2004. That’s good for a +4.4% ROI, and while that figure doesn’t jump off the page, it still makes this trend very profitable over that fairly large sample size.

Grabbing the +1.0 or the moneyline (-102; DraftKings) are both playable. While I'd typically just grab the moneyline in this spot, the difference in payout is so small that I’d rather get the extra point on the spread. A one-point differential in the NFL is extremely rare, but it still happens in approximately 4% of contests.

You can tail the Packers on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account and place a $5 bet below!

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Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Aaron Jones Over 12.5 Carries (-108, FanDuel)

• Bet To: Over 12.5 (-125)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 12.9

The Packers’ backfield split has been one of the most maddening utilization situations in recent years. Jones is clearly the better player, but A.J. Dillon continues to siphon off a healthy amount of touches in games when both are healthy.

However, we did see a slight shift away from Dillon in Week 16. It was the first time since Week 11 where both RBs were available in the same contest, and Jones had a 54% snap share compared to 19% for Dillon.

Dec 24, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) with the ball in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Jones finished with 21 carries with Dillon having gotten only seven. Overall, Jones received 64% of the team’s rushing attempts in that contest, which was his highest mark in any game with Dillon active this season.

While Dillon returning from a thumb injury may have factored into that split, Green Bay should rely on Jones to carry the load in a must-win contest, especially considering that Jones has been averaging nearly a full extra yard per carry compared to Dillon this year.

You can tail the over on Jones's carries on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

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Jaren Hall Under 19.5 Completions (-110, BetMGM)

• Bet To: Under 18.5 (-110)
• Fantasy Life Projection: 18.0

Hall is my biggest reason for backing the Packers this week, so we might as well double down. He was efficient over a small sample size in his first start earlier in the year, but I wouldn’t read too much into that brief performance. Hall completed less than 60% of his passes in the preseason, and he averaged around a 65% completion rate in college.

It goes without saying that the regular season is a different animal than the preseason, and the talent level of the defenders he'll face this week is much higher than what he faced at BYU. Even against a banged-up Packers’ defense, it’s going to be a tough test for the unproven rookie QB.

We have Hall currently projected for 18 completions, so there’s some value with the under on his current line of 19.5 completions.

You can tail the under on Hall's completions on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

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Tucker Kraft Anytime TD (+270, FanDuel)

Someone is going to have to step up for the Packers at WR or TE, and Kraft seems like a likely candidate. Geoff Ulrich made the case for betting on Kraft as an anytime TD scorer this week:

“Kraft has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this recent Jordan Love surge.

He comes into this game having caught four passes in each of his last three starts as a premier piece on a banged-up Green Bay passing attack. Since Christian Watson (doubtful) went out of the lineup after Week 13, Kraft has now posted a route rate of over 90% in each of his three starts and saw an elite 26% target share last week against the Panthers. 

The matchup is a little tougher this week, but the Vikings' blitz-happy scheme does allow for opportunities. Love has thrown multiple TD passes in six of his last seven starts, and the Packers are now just +1.0 underdogs with a 22.25 implied team total.

With solid +270 odds, Kraft makes sense as a TD target for the Sunday Night game that will officially end Week 17.”

For more of Geoff’s TD picks, make sure to check out his primer for Week 17.

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750. If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

Given everything I’ve said about Hall above, does it make a ton of sense to ladder up Jefferson? Probably not, but I’m going to do it anyway. Jefferson is just so talented that it doesn’t really matter who’s throwing him the football.

Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a touchdown pass from quarterback Nick Mullens (not pictured) as Detroit Lions cornerback Cameron Sutton (1) defends during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Green Bay ranks 24th in dropback EPA allowed since Week 8, and with all their defensive injuries on top of their overall struggles on that side of the ball, it'll be a tall order for them to slow Jefferson down on Sunday night. Jefferson missed the first matchup against the Packers earlier this season, but Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn combined for 15 catches and 181 yards in that game.

Jefferson also has at least 84 receiving yards in all six games where he’s played more than 71% of the snaps in 2023, and he logged 140 yards or more in four of those six contests. You can grab Jefferson to get 80-plus receiving yards at -136 on FanDuel and ladder that all the way up to 150-plus receiving yards at +680 odds.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Can Hall outperform expectations for the Vikings, or will the Packers roll to a win and keep their playoff hopes alive? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

I’m going to start by taking the moneyline on Green Bay and pair that with under 21.5 points for Minnesota. These bets obviously correlate well, and I think that the Packers’ best chance of winning will be a poor offensive showing from Hall.

After that, I’m adding 50-plus rushing yards from Jones, an anytime TD from Kraft, and 80-plus receiving yards from Jefferson. The Kraft TD is somewhat iffy, but if he can find the end zone, the rest of this SGP seems very doable.

Adding the Kraft anytime TD scorer leg also vaults the odds on this SGP all the way to +1860:

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!

You can tail this SGP on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $150 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

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