Week 17 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Jets @ Browns.

The end of the NFL regular season is near. There are just two weeks left before the start of the playoffs, and Week 17 features our final Thursday Night Football matchup of the year. Unfortunately, the stakes for Jets-Browns are not nearly as high as the schedule-makers would’ve hoped.

The Jets entered this year with sky-high expectations, but an injury to Aaron Rodgers just four plays into the season relegated them to another miserable campaign. Meanwhile, the Browns currently sit at 10-5, good for the third-best record in the AFC. They’ve done that despite losing starting quarterback DeShaun Watson to injury and signing Joe Flacco straight off the couch.

All the Browns need to do to guarantee a postseason spot is secure a win or tie vs. the Jets on Thursday. That’s not their only path into the playoffs, but they’re in clear control of their own destiny. Even with a loss, NFL.com still puts their playoff probability at greater than 99%.

Can the Browns officially punch their ticket, or will the Jets play spoiler? Let’s dive into my best bets for Thursday Night Football.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns:

Spread: Browns -7.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Total: 34.5
Moneylines: Jets +260/Browns -350

I don’t blame you if you gave up on the Browns a month ago. They were sitting at 7-4, but the team was in rough shape at quarterback. Watson was hurt, Dorian Thompson-Robinson was not ready for prime time, and P.J. Walker was ineffective. Even with their elite defense, it seemed like the Browns were destined to finish the year with a whimper.

Enter Flacco. The veteran quarterback spent the first three months of the season at home before being signed to the practice squad at the end of November. He was eventually promoted to the active roster and earned his first start of the year in Week 13. Flacco was solid in that outing – 254 yards and two touchdowns – but the Browns ultimately lost a close game to the Rams.

Since then, Flacco has led the team to three straight victories over the Jaguars, Bears, and Texans. He has continued to improve statistically, culminating with 8.05 adjusted yards per attempt in Week 16. Overall, he leads the four Browns’ quarterbacks in AY/A and touchdown rate for the season.

Still, it’s fair to wonder just how good Flacco has actually been. He’s thrown a lot of interceptions (seven), and his 6.8-yard AY/A isn’t particularly impressive. It would be the 19th-best mark in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify, and he ranks 22nd at the position in EPA + CPOE since taking over as the starter. In other words, Flacco may be impressive from a win/loss perspective, but he’s not exactly lighting things up from an efficiency standpoint.

Dec 24, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) attempts a pass during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The good news is that Flacco does have help. His defense is arguably the best in football, with the Browns ranking first in EPA/play for the year. They haven’t been quite as dominant over the second half of the year, but they still rank third in EPA/play from Week 8 on. As long as Flacco doesn’t actively sabotage the team – something he hasn’t done yet – their defense should keep them in most ball games.

As for the Jets, they’re also on their fourth starting quarterback. Sadly, Trevor Siemian hasn’t had the same success as Flacco. He did manage to win last week’s game vs. the Commanders, but he was gifted a 17-0 lead just five minutes into that contest. The fact that the team still needed a game-winning FG drive late in the fourth quarter is pretty alarming.

Siemian has averaged 3.2 adjusted yards per attempt so far this season, and he averaged just 3.92 in his first start of the year. Statistically, he’s been one of the worst QBs to play meaningful snaps in 2023.

Like the Browns, the Jets do at least have a solid defense. They’re fifth in EPA/play defensively since Week 8, and they’re particularly good against the pass. They’re third in the league in terms of yards allowed per game, so opponents have consistently struggled to move the ball against them.

Best Bet: Under 34.5 (-106; FanDuel)

This is an interesting game from a total perspective. On one hand, neither offense figures to have success moving the ball between the 20s. Flacco and Siemian are both below-average starters – with Siemian being downright bad – and both of these defenses are fantastic.

However, these two quarterbacks are also prone to turnovers. Siemian has a 3.4% interception rate this season, while Flacco is at 4.0%. If both quarterbacks make some mistakes and set up their opponents with short fields, this game could be higher-scoring than anticipated. It’s a big reason why the Browns are 9-6 to the over this season despite possessing the best defense in football.

Still, I’m going to take the under in this spot. The Jets have been a great under team despite their quarterbacks turning the ball over at will, posting a 9-6 record. That includes a sparkling 5-1 mark to the under in games with a closing total of 36.0 or lower.

Of course, I am also contractually obligated to mention how good primetime unders have been. The under is now 32-21 in games starting at 7 p.m. ET or later this season (+15.4% ROI), and they’re 154-105-3 dating back to 2019-20 (+14.1% ROI).

As long as the two quarterbacks don’t turn it over too much, I think this game should stay under 34.5. The sharps seem to agree, with the under receiving 89% of the dollars on 69% of the bets (per the Action Network).

You can tail the under at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Amari Cooper Over 4.5 receptions (+100; DraftKings)

Play To: Over 4.5 (-125)
Fantasy Life Projection: 5.0

Sometimes, I think people forget how good Amari Cooper is at playing football. He spent the early part of his career toiling away for bad Raiders’ teams, and now he’s stuck in an inefficient Browns’ passing attack. That said, he remains an elite talent at the receiver position.

He reminded everyone of that fact last week, racking up 11 catches, 265 yards, and two touchdowns against a helpless Texans’ secondary. Don’t expect that level of production vs. the Jets, but over 4.5 receptions is a very reasonable ask.

Cooper’s full-season marks aren’t all that impressive, but he’s been much more heavily featured since Flacco took over at QB. He’s racked up at least 14 targets in two of his past three contests, and he has a 29% target share over that time frame. He was literally the poster boy for Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report in Week 17.

With that kind of volume, getting to five receptions shouldn’t ultimately be that difficult. He has the upside for double-digit targets, so he’s a potential ladder candidate as well.

You can tail the Cooper over at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Breece Hall Over 46.5 rushing yards (-114; FanDuel)

Play To: 47.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 49.2

Breece Hall is similar to Cooper in that he is an extremely talented player in a sub-optimal offense. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry before suffering an injury during his rookie season, and he’s displayed plenty of big-play potential in his sophomore season. Only Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane have more rushes of 50+ yards this season, while only Saquon Barkley has more rushes of 30+.

Hall isn’t a true bell-cow back, but he had a respectable 59% of the team’s rushing attempts in Week 16. With his explosiveness, that’s more than enough to potentially return value: He had 95 yards on 20 carries vs. the Commanders.

Dec 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) is tackled by Washington Commanders safety Jartavius Martin (20) during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

While the Browns’ defense is obviously a step up in competition, Cleveland has been far better against the pass than the run this season. They’re first in the league in drop back EPA, but they’re merely No. 8 vs. the run.

As long as the Jets can keep this game somewhat competitive, Hall should get enough opportunities to get over this figure.

David Njoku Anytime Touchdown (+210; FanDuel)

In a game with a 34.5-point total, points figure to be at a premium. However, Geoff Ulrich is still more than willing to search for some anytime TD value. He’s highlighted David Njoku as a worthy play in this contest:

I'm genuinely shocked that we can still get Njoku at odds greater than +200 for a score this week, especially in a matchup against a Jets defense that defends much better on the field's boundaries than the middle. New York has allowed just 4 TDs this year to opposing WRs but 7 TDs to opposing TEs, which is tied for third-most in the league.

Njoku has been a favorite of new QB Joe Flacco and comes in having seen 31 targets over his last three games, and has now scored four times in the last three games after finding the end zone yet again last week against the Texans – another team that does not defend against TEs very well. He’s also tied with Amari Cooper over that span for most red zone targets on the team with four.

The Jets don’t offer much resistance on offense but they are still a tricky matchup given their elite corners and pass rush making this a spot where I expect Flacco will keep things simple and feed Njoku once again. Ultimately we are backing a player who has scored five TDs now over his last nine games and whose +210 anytime odds offer an implied probability of him scoring at 32.26%. It’s as good a TD prop as any to chase for the final TNF game of the season.

For all of Geoff’s touchdown musings, make sure to check out his primer for Week 17.

Ladder Bet

If you’re new to ladder bets, they’re a really fun way to try and add some extra upside to your bets. Instead of just betting the over on a player’s prop, you can try to “ladder up” by grabbing higher payouts at larger numbers.

For example, you can bet on a player to get 50-plus yards at +100, 75-plus yards at +300, and 100-plus yards and +750.

If you stagger your bets properly, you can win if the player goes over the first number, and you win big if the player goes all of those lines. For a more detailed breakdown, Geoff did a great job of explaining ladder bets.

Cooper and Hall are both worth considering for ladder plays, but let’s also consider Flacco. Even though he hasn’t been the most efficient quarterback since taking over in Cleveland, volume has not been an issue. He’s racked up at least 42 pass attempts in all four games, and he’s had at least 311 passing yards in three straight games.

Overall, the Browns have leaned into an extremely pass-heavy game script in those contests, posting a pass rate over expectation (PROE) of at least +5.0% in all four games.

With that in mind, the prices on Flacco’s alternate passing props are pretty tasty. You can grab at least 250 at +138, at least 275 at +260, and at least 300 at +490 on FanDuel. For the really adventurous, at least 325 passing yards is all the way up at +880. Flacco has at least 368 passing yards in back-to-back games, so all those marks feel in the range of potential outcomes.

Same-Game Parlay

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will Flacco continue to lead the Browns to victory, or can the Jets steal one on the road? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.

Let’s keep things simple this week. I’m starting with the under on 34.5 points, and I’m pairing that with the Jets +7.5. Ultimately, if this game stays under the total, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Jets get blown out. It’s possible, but it’s less likely in a low-scoring game than a high-scoring one.

After that I’m pairing it with my two favorite props: At least five catches for Cooper and at least 50 rushing yards for Hall. Both of those numbers just seem too low for players this talented.

Add it all up, and it results in a potential +901 payout on FanDuel:

Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!