Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Bets Bets For Cowboys @ Chargers.
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the Monday Night Matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers from a betting perspective.
The Monday Nighter for Week 6 brings us an appealing aperitif to finish the week.
The Chargers and Cowboys both enter this game with two losses on the season, with the Chargers coming off the early-season Week 5 bye. Los Angeles has a rest advantage, although it’s worth noting that the Cowboys enter this game relatively healthy. Of their starters, LB Leighton Vander Esch looks like the only one who will be out this week.
The bye may have come early for the Chargers, but the timing could not have been better. RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) is set to return this week, and with Vander Esch out, that could help his efficiency in the run and pass game. S Derwin James Jr. (hamstring) has also practiced in full this week and will be a massive boost, while DE Joey Bosa (toe) is currently questionable and will be a big game-time decision to watch for.
We should have an all-systems-go type of matchup, with potentially one key piece missing on each defense. So, where do we lean for betting? Check out below for our take on sides and props:
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Cowboys -1.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 51.0
- Moneylines: Chargers -125 / Cowboys +105
It’s been a strange start for the Cowboys. They have had multiple games that were essentially layups for a competent squad (an awful Giants team in Week 1, the Jets after losing Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, and an imploding Patriots team in Week 4). In their two real tests, they’ve failed miserably.
Perhaps the game last week against the 49ers wasn’t as bad as the final score suggests, but while their rush defense stepped up to an extent, their pass defense cratered for the second time in two weeks. Allowing Joshua Dobbs to throw for 9.0 yards per attempt and an 80% completion rate is a bad look, and the same issues arose against Brock Purdy (4 TD passes, 71% completion rate) in Week 5.
While the Chargers may be without Bosa, the loss of Vander Esch is arguably harder for the Cowboys to absorb. They have a thin LB core to begin with and have already had their issues in stopping the run, and Vander Esch is their primary signal caller on defense. The ripples of his loss will be felt everywhere for Dallas.
The Cowboys have been great at bouncing back from losses under Dak Prescott and are 10-1 ATS after a loss the last three seasons. It’s a good record, but you wonder how much of that stems from playing in a weak NFC East at times. Prescott is 25-10 ATS vs. the NFC East for his career but only 33-38-2 ATS vs. the rest of the NFL (per the Action Network).
Monday Night Football Best Bet: Chargers +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
As you can probably tell already, I’m leaning the Chargers on this one and have already bet them in a Sunday afternoon/Monday Night teaser with the Buccaneers. If the first part fails, I will probably just play them on the spread as well.
Some trends with the Cowboys look good on paper, but to me, the chance to back Justin Herbert and a healthy Chargers team is too appealing. Herbert has had a lovely start to the year and is on pace for career-best numbers in yards per attempt, completion percentage, and interception rate (7.6, 71%, 1.0%).
Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass in the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
While the Chargers record in close games is always concerning, the Cowboys have struggled mightily with two non-divisional teams on the road and have had trouble clicking on offense this year. They come into this game ranked 19th in Offensive DVOA, with Dak Prescott currently on pace to post career worsts in yards per attempt (6.6) and TD rate (3.1%).
The over on the total 51.0 is also somewhat appealing, but with the current number having already risen significantly from the 46.5 open, the spread is where I’d prefer to stay.
You can tail the Chargers on BetMGM, where new users can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
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Monday Night Football Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
A few wagers stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Justin Herbert Over 11.5 rushing yards (-110; FanDuel)
- Bet To: 12.5 (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 16.1 yards
Herbert has been far more active as a rusher than last year. His designed run rate is up to 10% on the season (vs. 8% in 2022), and his scramble rate is up to 6% (vs. 3% in 2022).
The Cowboys were about average in terms of rush yards allowed to QBs last year, but this season, they have allowed an average of 28.0 yards per game rushing to opposing QBs (fourth-most in the league). Without Vander Esch, it’s an excellent time to go over on Herbert’s lower rushing total.
Michael Gallup 50+ receiving yards (+164; BetMGM)
- Bet To: +145
- Fantasy Life Projection: 37.7
I discussed Michael Gallup in the weekly TD article I write for Fantasy Life, and much of what I wrote there also applies to this bet.
“Gallup’s resurgence this year has been impressive and is still going a little under the radar for betting and fantasy purposes.
He’s matched CeeDee Lamb in target share (19%) through five weeks and has a deeper aDOT (10.77) than the Cowboys' number No. 1 receiver.”
October 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (2) during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
You could certainly target Gallup in the TD market (+235, DraftKings), but another way to play him if you don’t want to worry about the considerable variance that comes with TDs is to target him in the alternate yard department. You get odds like +164 for 50+ yards on BetMGM.
Considering his current usage and the Chargers issues in the secondary (eighth-most yards allowed to opposing WRs), a bigger game should almost be expected.
Tony Pollard under 69.5 rushing yards (-114; FanDuel)
- Bet To: 68.5 yards (-110)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 14.7 carries and 64.7 rushing yards
In general, marquee player props in primetime games feel like they get set at slightly elevated levels thanks to the game's extra attention and the public's desire to bet overs on their favorite players.
Pollard’s rushing total is the perfect example of such a prop. His rushing prop at 69.5 yards feels slightly elevated against a Chargers defense that has been much improved this year and allowed just 3.3 yards per carry in Week 4 against Josh Jacobs – and who is getting James back this week for help.
I like fading the public in primetime games, and Pollard’s under will likely be a lonely spot for betting this week. We have him projected for 64.8 in our aggregate projections on Fantasy Life, suggesting there is a small edge to taking his under in addition to being contrarian.
You can tail Pollard's under on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place an initial wager of $5 or more below!
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Same-Game Parlay
I’m building out the Same Game Parlay (SGP) this week fairly conservatively but also following most of our thesis from above on how the game will play out.
I like the Chargers, and with the spread so close, using the moneyline odds boosts our payout a little and lets us play for how we think a straight-up Chargers win might proceed.
I mentioned Herbert’s great start above, and considering how the Cowboys' defense has been eaten alive by the last two above-average QBs they have faced, I like Herbert’s chances of coming through with a couple of passing TDs.
Rather than guess who he throws the TDs to, I focused on how a Chargers win would play out on the other side of the ball. Los Angeles being ahead late should mean fewer Pollard runs and more passing, which plays into both of Cowboy’s props from above.
All told, it gives us a nice +700 SGP to sweat for Week 6’s MNF matchup:
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Good luck this week!
