Week 6 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Broncos @ Chiefs.
Matt LaMarca previews the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs from a betting perspective.
We have an AFC West divisional showdown between two rivals for this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs' and Broncos' rivalry has been pretty one-sided over the past handful of years, with the Chiefs securing 15 consecutive wins.
Unsurprisingly, they’re expected to take care of business in their first matchup of 2023, with the Chiefs hosting the Broncos as double-digit home favorites.
Can the Broncos manage to end their misery vs. the Chiefs—or at least secure a cover—or will the Kansas City machine keep on rolling? Let’s dive in.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Game Breakdown
- Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 47
- Moneylines: Broncos +425/Chiefs -600
The weather is the first thing to discuss in this matchup. There is a decent chance for some rainfall, but the bigger factor is the wind. The current forecast calls for 15-20 mile-per-hour sustained winds, with gusts into the 30s. Those have the potential to be a game-changer.
Weather is often overblown in NFL contests, but intense wind impacts the deep passing game and kicking. Both of those factors directly affect scoring.
Unders haven’t been hugely profitable in games with comparable wind conditions, but it has given under bettors a slight edge in games with high totals. In games where the total has closed at 45 points or higher, the under is 35-31 dating back to 2005 with winds between 15 and 20 miles per hour.
The under would’ve been a lot more appealing if the sharps hadn’t gotten their hands on it early. This figure opened at 51.0, but it has been driven all the way down to 47.5. It’s even down to 47.0 at some locations.
One of the biggest mistakes that amateur bettors make is “chasing steam.” Grabbing the under on 47.5—or potentially lower if you wait til kickoff—means surrendering 3.5 points of CLV. That doesn’t mean that the under can’t still win, but it means that you’re getting a substantially worse bet than what the sharps got early in the week.
Broncos @ Chiefs Best Bet – Broncos +10.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Instead of chasing the steam with the under, I’m going to take my chances with the Broncos. While this rivalry has been pretty one-sided as of late, the team has at least been able to cover the spread on occasion. They’re 5-6 ATS against Patrick Mahomes for his career, including 3-2 in Kansas City. More importantly, they’re 5-2 ATS vs. Mahomes when getting more than a touchdown.
Oct 1, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs for a late 4th quarter first down against the Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
That jives with everything we know about the Chiefs: They’re an elite football team, but they struggle to cover as big favorites. They’re just 17-22-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown with Mahomes under center, including 1-1 so far this season. They did manage to blow out the Bears as massive favorites, but the Jets managed to make the game competitive.
The Broncos have been a bad football team so far this season, but they do at least boast a competent passing attack. Russell Wilson has had a resurgence under new head coach Sean Payton, ranking sixth among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite. He’s also averaged 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt, which is in line with his average from his 10 years with the Seahawks.
The Broncos’ defense is going to surrender plenty of points in this spot, but their offense should be able to score some of their own. I think this game could be more competitive than people think, and a backdoor cover is always a possibility. The weather could also keep the high-flying Chiefs offense to fewer points than usual, which would make our +10.5 points even more valuable.
You can tail the Broncos at +10.5 at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
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Thursday Night Football Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-114; FanDuel)
- Bet To: 21.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 23.31
This line is up as high as 21.5 on DraftKings, but you can still find a tasty 19.5 on FanDuel.
We have Mahomes projected for more than 23 rushing yards, and that might be a smidge on the conservative side. Matthew Freedman has Mahomes projected for more than 25 yards, and if the weather is as bad as expected, Mahomes might have to do a bit more with his legs than usual.
Mahomes is already running at a higher clip than in previous seasons. He didn’t run the ball at all vs. the Vikings, but he had at least 28 yards in his four previous contests. He also had at least six attempts in three of them after averaging just 3.6 attempts in 2022.
You can tail the over on FanDuel, where you can also get $200 in bonus bets by placing a $5 initial bet when you create a new account! Simply sign up below to start betting today!
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Javonte Williams Under 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110; DraftKings)
- Bet To: 35.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 37.34
Payton told reporters that Williams “could’ve” played last week vs. the Jets if it was a playoff game, and he returned to a full participant at practice on Wednesday. That means he will almost certainly return to the lineup for Thursday Night Football, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he’s removed from the injury report entirely.
Oct 1, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) rushes the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Still, I’m skeptical about how large his workload will be.
The team has already exercised caution with Williams for most of the year, limiting him to 46% of the snaps and 59% of the rushing attempts in his first three games. In his first week back, he’ll likely be looking at a similar role.
Williams has exceeded 36.5 yards in each of his three full contests, but the Chiefs have been vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Their run defense isn’t exactly a strength, but they’ve held two of their past four opponents to 74 yards or fewer.
The Fantasy Life projections put Williams right around this number, but Freedman’s projection is a bit more bearish. He has Williams projected for just 31 rushing yards, and I side more with his view in this matchup.
Looking to tail this under? Head to DraftKings Sportsbook to sign up and get $200 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of at least $5!
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Kadarius Toney Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120; BetMGM)
- Bet To: 27.5
- Fantasy Life Projection: 20.7
Toney’s under projects as one of the biggest edges in our Prop Tool, not just for this matchup, but for all of the lines currently posted for Week 6. We have him projected for less than 21 receiving yards, giving us plenty of cushion from the current number.
The Chiefs’ receiving corps has had interesting utilization all season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only receiver with a route participation above 60% for the year, and even he is trending in the wrong direction. Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, and Toney have all been part-time players, but they all tend to see work when they’re on the field.
That said, Toney has operated as the clear No. 3 option among those players to start the year.
His route participation sits at just 27% for the season, while his target share is roughly 11%. His average depth of target (aDOT) is also just 2.33 yards, so most of his work comes around the line of scrimmage. That means that nearly all of his damage has to come after the catch.
Toney has had less than 31.5 yards in all but one game this season. That includes last week, despite earning a season-high six targets and finishing with five catches. There’s always a chance that he can wiggle free for a big gain, but unless his usage changes, this number is simply too high.
Broncos @ Chiefs Touchdown Prop Bet
Touchdown props are a slightly divisive prop betting option. Some people swear by them, while others hate them. Personally, I tend to fall into the latter category. I just don’t think the odds are tempting enough to justify a ton of effort into them.
Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich doesn’t mind diving into some touchdown props, and he’s highlighted Kadarius Toney for Thursday Night Football…
Kadarius Toney anytime TD (+250, BetMGM)
"With the Chiefs having a 29.0 implied team total there could be lots of chances to go around for their skill players this week.
Rashee Rice has been getting looks when on the field (50% TPRR in Week 5) but he’s also got a 16.7% drop rate (worst in NFL) and had his snaps dialed back in Week 5. Rice’s odds at +190 also aren’t overly appealing and are quite a bit smaller than teammate Kadarius Toney’s (+250) who played more snaps (25 vs 20) and had a better route rate (40% vs 23%) than the rookie in Week 5.
It’s easy to scoff at Toney’s low aDOT and air yards, but he converted a couple of key catches in the game against Minnesota and hasn’t dropped any of his 14 targets since Week 1. I don’t expect his snap share to rise considerably but if it stays steady over last week he’ll likely be in for 5+ targets again, against a weak defense in Denver.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if Andy Reid used this game to keep trying to build Toney’s confidence (which has been improving) and dial up a play or two for him in the red zone."
For more analysis, make sure to check out Geoff’s complete breakdown for Week 6 touchdown scorer props.
Same-Game Parlay
Same Game Parlays are about telling a story. Will the Chiefs dominate the Broncos from start to finish? Will the Broncos pull off an upset and styme the Chiefs' offense? There are ways to tell yourself a story, correlate your parlay, and ultimately – profit. For more on Same Game Parlay strategy, read this comprehensive breakdown.
As usual, we’ll attempt to build a correlated same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football. We failed to get on the board on Monday Night Football, but we did hit an absolute banger for TNF in Week 5.
Let’s hope for similar results in Week 6.
If you’re unfamiliar with same-game parlays, the goal is to tell a consistent story that jives with how you anticipate the game going. That way, if one leg hits, it’s more likely that the other legs hit as well.
For this contest, I like combining the Broncos +10.5 and Under 47.5.
That combination makes sense to me. If the game is lower-scoring, the 10.5 points become a lot more valuable. The fact that the weather looks suboptimal should only help.
After that, I’m definitely adding the Toney receiving under. That stands out as such a strong value that I don’t really care about the correlation with that one.
Finally, let’s wrap things up with at least two passing touchdowns from Wilson. We’re likely going to need a couple scores from the Broncos if the team is going to cover, and Wilson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in four of five games.
Adding those four legs together gives us a pretty significant potential payout:
Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
You can tail the SGP at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting today!
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We’ll be back on Thursday for another prime-time matchup breakdown, but until then, don’t forget to check out the free picks on our bet tracker and other great betting tools we have on the site.
