Week 7 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Bets Bet for 49ers @ Vikings

This is an NFC matchup between two playoff teams from 2022, but these two teams are headed in vastly different directions in 2023. The Vikings may have staved off calls for tanking and selling off their stars at the deadline (for one week at least) with their win over the Bears, but they remain just 2-4 on the season and without the services of Justin Jefferson, who's on IR with a hamstring injury.

The 49ers suffered their first defeat of the year last week, and it was also their first regular season loss in 15 games. It’s never a good look when you lose to P.J. Walker as 9.5-point favorites, but San Francisco had a couple of tough breaks go against them in the Cleveland game (including injuries to key players) and still had a chance to win at the end were it not for a missed field goal by Jake Moody.

Regardless of record, the 49ers come in as the superior team in most facets. They have a +97 point differential on the season and an offense that ranks second in overall DVOA.

So do the Vikings have a shot, or is this a hammer the favorite kind of situation? How do we handle player props with Deebo Samuel out and Christian McCaffrey likely playing a limited role even if active? We'll break down all the facets of how to bet this MNF showdown below.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: 49ers -7.0 (-105; BetMGM)
Total: 43.0
Moneylines: 49ers -303 / Vikings +240

The injury report will be important to consider, but I'd also avoid getting too wrapped up in it this week. As of this writing, we know that Deebo Samuel is out and that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams is doubtful. Williams could be the bigger loss with Danielle Hunter on the other side already having logged eight sacks on the season. As for McCaffrey, it's anyone's guess as to how many touches he'll get even if active.

Samuel is obviously a unique playmaker, but luckily for the 49ers, they have solid WR depth. Ray-Ray McCloud is a versatile open-field runner who can replicate a little of what Samuel brings to the table, and Jauan Jennings is a bigger body over the middle who has a history with Brock Purdy.

And of course, Brandon Aiyuk currently ranks sixth in yards per reception (18.2) among WRs and could be considered a true No. 1 WR for many teams. He's in a spot to potentially dominate a weak Vikings secondary that ranks 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt against and has allowed the most receptions to opposing WRs through six weeks.

At RB, San Francisco also has adequate depth even if McCaffrey is out or not 100% for this game. Jordan Mason has looked great the last two weeks, having averaged 6.4 yards per carry (YPC) over his last 15 rushing attempts. He and Elijah Mitchell are a more than serviceable duo to relieve or replace McCaffrey, with Mason likely being the one to target for an anytime TD prop (+160; BetMGM) or over prop if McCaffrey gets ruled out or is on a snap count.

October 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (24) scores a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys linebacker Damone Clark (33) during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

On the Minnesota side, they also have an impactful offensive line injury with Ezra Cleveland out. That’s a potentially huge issue, as the 49ers currently rank ninth in pressure rate, and Kirk Cousins is currently 13th among QBs in sacks taken.

The loss of Cleveland will also downgrade the Vikings' run game, which hasn't been a strength in general in 2023. Alexander Mattison has averaged just 3.3 YPC over his last 19 attempts, and San Francisco's defense has held all but one RB to under 55 rushing yards thus far on the season even if they haven't been quite as elite as they were in 2022.

It’s easy to overthink spots like this with the 49ers coming off a loss and not at 100% health, but even if San Francisco’s offensive efficiency dips a little, the Vikings are going to have a tough time moving the ball. Cousins could only manage 181 passing yards last week on 31 attempts in his first game without Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson accounted for nearly a third of those yards.

The 49ers are tough against TEs (third-fewest receiving yards allowed to the position), so the Vikings will need Jordan Addison and their ancillary WRs to step up, which is a tough ask against this elite San Francisco passing defense.

MNF Best Bet: 49ers -6.5 (-105; FanDuel)

Bet to: 49ers -7.0 (-105)

Ultimately, San Francisco has a talented roster from top to bottom on both sides of the ball, so they can still dominate this Minnesota team even with some big injuries.

After all, the 49ers hammered the Giants without Aiyuk a few weeks ago and breezed over the Cardinals even with Samuel at less than 100% health. Plus, we're a ways into this breakdown already, and I haven't even mentioned George Kittle yet, and Kittle almost always tends to have big games whenever a starting 49ers WR is out.

Trend-wise, we also have to consider the vast difference in success rate of these two QBs. Since entering the league, Purdy is 10-4 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in primetime games. On the other hand, Minnesota is just 10-19 ATS since the start of 2020 at home, and Cousins is 21-35 ATS in his career in games that start at 4:00 P.M. Eastern or later per The Action Network.

If you don’t want to take the -6.5, you can also think about using the 49ers as a teaser leg (-7.0 down to -1.0) and teasing them with a team like the Steelers (+1.5 to +7.5 against the Jaguars) heading into next Sunday.

You can tail the 49ers -6.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $200 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Player Props

One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

A few wagers stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Jordan Addison Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM)

Bet to: 51.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 59.4 yards

Addison’s line has moved up a little bit since props initially dropped on Friday, but you can still bet the over at 49.5. The rookie has moved into a near every-down role for the Vikings since Jefferson's injury, having seen a 100% route rate and 17% target share last week. While Addison wasn't particularly productive in that game at Chicago, game script factored in with Minnesota leading for much of the second half.

The 49ers's defense also tends to push more passing towards the edges of the field, which should help Addison in this matchup. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-most receptions to WRs this year, and we have a great shot at a pass-heavy game script for Minnesota as seven-point underdogs. We have Addison's over popping up as a good edge in our projections (59.4 yards), making this prop one to target.

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Brock Purdy Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-115; Bet365) / Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+110; DraftKings)

Bet to: 27.5 pass attempts (-120) / 1.5 pass TDs (-105)
Fantasy Life Projection: 29.0 attempts / 1.4 pass TDs

I really like targeting Purdy for some overs this week as well. Matthew Freedman posted an over on Purdy’s pass attempts in our 100% FREE bet tracker earlier this week, and the line hasn’t moved at all. Although Purdy has only gone over this number twice in 2023, he could pass more than usual on Monday night.

McCaffrey is banged up, and the Vikings' defense is a pass funnel that encourages short, quick passes given their 57.8% blitz rate, which currently leads the league. Teams playing against Minnesota are averaging 33.2 pass attempts per game through six weeks, which is about league-average but also well above this prop line.

Oct 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the first quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

As for Purdy going over 1.5 passing TDs, it’s a play on the insane efficiency of this 49ers offense, the good matchup, and the fact that +100 is a bit inflated after Purdy had arguably the worst game of his career against Cleveland.

Purdy has also thrown for two or more TDs in 10 of his 14 career starts outside of the NFC Championship game where he was injured, and the Vikings' defense has already allowed multiple passing TDs to opposing QBs in three out of their six games in 2023.

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Brandon Aiyuk Anytime TD (+150; Bet365) / First TD Scorer (+800; Bet365)

Bet to: +135 anytime TD / +750 first TD scorer
Fantasy Life Projection: 0.5 receiving TDs

I mentioned Aiyuk above as a player who could go off in this spot. You can certainly play the overs on his regular prop lines, but his receiving yardage line has already moved up five yards since open (65.5 yards to 70.5 yards) and the over on his 4.5 receptions (which I still like) is now heavily juiced.

A better idea might be to target Aiyuk as a TD scorer, either anytime or first. I wrote about Aiyuk more in the Week 7 TD article as well:

“The rest of the 49ers' skill-position players are banged up, and he’ll be facing a Vikings secondary that's allowed six receiving TDs and the most receptions to opposing WRs thus far.

The Vikings also love to blitz (57.8% blitz rate – first in the league), and that should leave Aiyuk in man coverage or against weak zones in a lot of spots, which could lead to some big gains and hopefully a score. Aiyuk hasn't scored since Week 1, and while I’m not about to play the “he’s due” card, it's worth noting that his two-TD performance in Week 1 against the Steelers came against another defense with a high blitz rate and weak corners.”

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Same-Game Parlay

As with all the same-game parlays (SGPs) that we build, we’ll try and build out our SGP to match the path that we think this game will ultimately take. Will the 49ers cover and put up a lot of points while the Vikings' offense struggles to respond? Or will Minnesota somehow keep this game close with both offenses potentially sputtering a bit?

Given my best bet above of the 49ers -6.5, I don’t think that San Francisco will struggle on Monday night. We'll add that as our first leg, and since we're looking for the big cover already, we should also target 49ers players heavily in the prop department, starting with Aiyuk, who we also mentioned above.

Let's add Aiyuk as an anytime TD scorer along with the over on his 64.5 receiving yards. Assuming a big game from Aiyuk, Purdy over 1.5 passing TDs correlates well.

And finally, while I do think that Minnesota could struggle on offense, they should still have a lot of passing volume with a projected trailing game script. As a result, adding Addison with an alternate line of 50-plus receiving yards makes sense as a bring-back play to our 49ers legs.

Here's the entire SGP with +825 odds.

Good luck to all your bets for the final game of Week 7!

You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up for your new account below.

Week 7 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Bets Bet for 49ers @ Vikings

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

MNF Best Bet: 49ers -6.5 (-105; FanDuel)

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Player Props

Jordan Addison Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM)

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Brock Purdy Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-115; Bet365) / Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+110; DraftKings)

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Brandon Aiyuk Anytime TD (+150; Bet365) / First TD Scorer (+800; Bet365)

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Same-Game Parlay

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