Week 8 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Bets Bet for Raiders @ Lions

Every primetime game in Week 8 has had a spread of 7.5 or higher, and we end with a Monday Night Football game where the line has fluctuated between 7.5 to 8.5 points all week.

The Lions came back down to Earth last week with a humiliating 38-6 loss to the Ravens. Detroit had been handling its business to date with a 5-2 record against the spread (ATS) on the season, but a Baltimore team at full strength proved to be too much.

Still, they maintain a +23 point differential and are top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA though, so the Lions aren't exactly paper tigers. Detroit also has the best home ATS record in the NFL over the last three seasons, having gone 15-5-0 ATS at home since the start of 2021.

As for the Raiders, they came up flat last week as well, having lost to an undrafted free agent QB making his first NFL start. Las Vegas enters this game with a respectable 3-4 record but with an astoundingly bad -49 point differential. Plus, their wins were over bad Broncos, Patriots, and Packers teams, and the Raiders lost their one matchup against a true top-tier team in the Bills by 28 points.

So how do you approach this apparent mismatch on Monday night? Should we lay off the favorite or find another way to attack this game? Here's everything you need to know about betting this primetime game.

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -7.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Total: 46.0
Moneylines: Lions -385 / Raiders +290

The one thing working in the Raiders' favor this week is that Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to return. Garoppolo has been at least serviceable, if nothing else, and has a 68% completion rate and a 7.3 yards per attempt average on the year.

That said, Garoppolo does also have eight INTs, which leads the league. That's not encouraging considering the fact that he's missed two games. The Raiders are 3-2 straight up and 3-2 ATS with Garoppolo under center.

The Lions also have some good news this week with cornerback Jerry Jacobs likely to return after having logged a full practice on Friday.

However, center Frank Ragnow is doubtful, and RB David Montgomery has already been ruled out. Those are significant losses, as Detroit's offensive line and efficient interior run game have been major factors contributing to their success thus far in 2023.

Expect Jahmyr Gibbs to handle a big role again. The rookie had 20 touches last week against the Ravens and ran for 68 yards on just 11 carries. He doesn't have the same kind of power as Montgomery, but Gibbs is more elusive and will face a Las Vegas defense that currently ranks 25th in defensive DVOA and 21st in yards per carry against.

The Raiders' linebackers have been poor in pass coverage against RBs as well, having allowed the 11th-most receptions to opposing RBs thus far. In fact, Las Vegas just ceded over 100 total yards from scrimmage and three total TDs to D’Onta Foreman last week, so Gibbs could have a big game on Monday night with the Lions likely to lean on him.

Raiders cornerback Nate Hobbs should return for this game as well, which may help limit Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has 25 receptions on 34 targets over the last two games. Hobbs is a decent slot corner, which is why we'll discuss an under for St. Brown in the player props section below.

Best Bet: Under 46.0 (-110; BetMGM)

Bet to: Under 46.5 (-115)

I think it’s fine to give the Lions a pass for last week. They were down a couple of key players and didn’t have any chance to adjust in-game thanks to how efficient the Ravens were on offense. We should see a more methodical approach from them this week and a more efficient game both on offense and overall.

That being said, the Raiders are also pretty methodical on offense and rank just 27th in plays per game and 25th in yards per play. If they can force Detroit's offense to grind it out on the ground without putting up many points of their own, the Raiders probably won't let this game turn into a shootout.

Unders have been cashing a lot so far this season, especially in primetime games, and I see no reason for this game to be any different. Primetime unders were 17-7 heading into Week 8 and are 156-102-3 since the start of 2019 per the Action Network.

With this number having stayed around 46.0 to 46.5 all week and with a slow-paced, non-explosive Raiders offense on one side of this matchup, looking to the under makes sense for Monday Night Football once again this week.

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Player Props

One of the best tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.

A few wagers stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)

Bet to: 25.5 (-115)
Fantasy Life Projection: 26.8

Gibbs has some pretty big prop totals for Week 8 after he produced 126 total yards last week on just 20 touches. We obviously want to be careful in spots like this, but at the same time, Gibbs is talented enough to warrant these larger totals, especially with Montgomery out.

The Lions showed that they're comfortable leaning on their rookie RB last week in Baltimore, and Gibbs faces a Raiders linebacker unit that's sub-par at covering RBs as receivers out of the backfield. Plus, Gibbs's route rate hit an elite 78% last week, and he’s been over 19% in team target share the last two games as well.

Jahmyr Gibbs Stats

At 24.5 receiving yards, our projections show a smidge of value in taking the over. Considering Gibbs’s pass-catching abilities in the open field, I'm happy to take the over. The Raiders allowed multiple big plays from the Bears' RBs last week and should have similar issues against Gibbs and a better Lions offense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 84.5 Receiving Yards (+100; DraftKings)

Bet to: 81.5
Fantasy Life Projection: 76.7

As mentioned above, with slot corner Nate Hobbs expected back, Las Vegas should be able to at least slow down St. Brown. On top of that, with the Lions projected to win and likely leading for much of the second half, they may not need to aggressively target St. Brown, especially if their run game is efficient.

Matthew Freedman had pretty much the same analysis and made this prop one of his favorites, which is why I included it here. It’s up in our FREE bet tracker, and I’ve included some more of Matthew's thoughts below to further convince you why it makes sense to fade one of the most productive WRs of the last two weeks.

“This mark of 84.5 is St. Brown’s highest of the season, so there’s a little bit of a sell-high dynamic at play here.

This year, St. Brown has gone over 100 yards in four games, including last week, when he led the league with 19 targets. This bet has the potential to look incredibly stupid in retrospect…but the Lions are big home favorites and could lean heavily on the run game as a result.”

You can tail the under for St. Brown on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you place a $5 initial wager and get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY. Sign up below to learn more!

Jameson Williams Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-114; FanDuel) / Anytime TD Scorer (+340; FanDuel)

Bet to: 15.5 (-110) / +300

It’s hard to make a case for Williams based purely on production or film, but we do have prior usage to guide us. He’s seen 12 targets over the last three games, and two weeks ago, he turned just three targets into two receptions for 52 yards and a TD against the Buccaneers.

Jared Goff has been able and willing to find the speedy Williams downfield in 2023 even if his total target volume hasn't been that high. In fact, Williams's 14.5 longest reception prop is extremely low considering that he’s posted air yards shares of 25% and 33% the last two weeks, respectively.

Additionally, the Raiders have a very weak set of outside corners as well as a litany of injuries to their secondary for this game, including cornerback Marcus Peters. We have Williams projected for 29.4 receiving yards this week, and if he does produce, a lot of that yardage would likely to come on a single play or two.

Because of that, I also don't hate the idea of targeting Williams in the more variable TD market. He’s sitting at +340 as an anytime TD scorer, which are pretty enormous odds for the Lions' primary downfield pass-catcher in a game where they have a 27.5 implied team total.

You can tail these bets on Williams on FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users who place an initial wager of $5 or more will get $200 in bonus bets after creating a new account. Click below to learn more!

Same-Game Parlay

As with all the same-game parlays (SGPs) that we build, we’ll try and build out our SGP to match the path that we think this game will ultimately take.

I’m basically just following the overall thesis of the player props above for our SGP, starting with St. Brown under 89.5 receiving yards. And if we project St. Brown to potentially have a slightly muted day in the yardage department, it should mean that Detroit will be leaning on their ancillary pass-catchers more on Monday night.

That could lead to more targets, especially downfield, for Williams, so it makes sense to add 25-plus receiving yards for him as a leg. And with Montgomery out and Gibbs projected for a workhorse role, I like him to get 80-plus total rushing and receiving yards, especially against a Las Vegas team that's struggled on defense.

Finally, a logical bring-back on the Raiders' side is Jakobi Meyers over 54.5 receiving yards. He's been targeted heavily this season and has shown terrific chemistry with Garoppolo. Meyers has also already gone over this mark in four of six games. With the Lions having dealt with some injuries of their own in the secondary, they've also allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to opposing WRs through seven weeks.

Add these all up, and our SGP looks like this:

Good luck to all your bets for the final game of Week 8!

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Week 8 Monday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Bets Bet for Raiders @ Lions

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions

Best Bet: Under 46.0 (-110; BetMGM)

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Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)

Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 84.5 Receiving Yards (+100; DraftKings)

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Jameson Williams Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-114; FanDuel) / Anytime TD Scorer (+340; FanDuel)

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Same-Game Parlay

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