Swift Battle: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers, Week 9 MNF Best Bets
Matt LaMarca reveals the Week 9 Monday Night Football Best Bets and Props for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Matt LaMarca presents the Monday Night Football Best Bets and Props for Week 9 for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Monday Night Football in Week 9 features a showdown between two of the three most recent Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs will host the Buccaneers at Arrowhead Stadium, and they’re listed as 9-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 45.5 points.
While the Bucs did win the Super Bowl four years ago, this team looks nothing like that version. Baker Mayfield has replaced Tom Brady at quarterback, and he’s completely revitalized his career. However, he has plenty of questions at the moment, with his top two receivers both on the shelf with long-term injuries.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs continue to dominate like few NFL teams ever have. It hasn’t always been pretty this season, but they’re the lone undefeated team in football at 7-0.
Can the Chiefs cruise to an easy win, or will the Bucs make things tougher than expected? Will Taylor Swift swoop in after playing one of the final shows on your Eras Tour the night before? Let’s dive in.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.0)—45.5 total
The 2024 Chiefs may be winning like their previous iterations, but this version feels different. They’re arguably a better defensive team than offensive team at this point. That wasn’t expected to be the case. They completely overhauled their pass-catching corps this offseason, bringing in Hollywood Brown while drafting Xavier Worthy with a first-round pick.
Unfortunately, injuries have hit this unit hard. Brown was ruled out with a likely season-ending injury before the year even started, while running back Isiah Pacheco has been on the shelf since Week 2. Top receiver Rashee Rice also went down with a season-ending injury, leaving the team without three of their top weapons. As a result, they’re merely 11th in yards per game this season, which is the worst mark of the Mahomes era.
However, the defense has been able to pick up the slack. They’re a top-5 unit in both yards and points per game allowed, and they’re 9th in EPA per play defensively.
While that’s great on paper, I still have some concerns about this team’s ceiling. Defensively, they’ve breezed through a pretty easy schedule. They’ve gotten to face the Chargers, Saints, and Raiders in three of their four most recent matchups, and none of those teams are particularly good on offense. The Chargers are 22nd in EPA per play, while the other two teams are 25th and 32nd, respectively. The lone exception in that stretch was a game vs. the 49ers, but they were without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk for most of that contest.
The Buccaneers will represent a serious step up in competition. Being without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans is a big deal, but they’re still 5th in EPA per play for the year. They also were still able to move the ball without them last week, racking up 26 points and 436 yards of total offense.
If the Chiefs' defense is unable to stifle Tampa Bay, can their offense score enough to make up for it? That’s a weird question to ask about a unit led by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but they simply haven’t had a ton of production this season. Mahomes still has more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (8), and he’s on pace for career lows basically across the board. He’ll probably flip the switch come playoff time, but he just doesn’t look quite like Patrick Mahomes at the moment.
The Chiefs have historically struggled to cover in spots like this. Mahomes is just 22-32-2 ATS when favored by more than a field goal since the start of the 2020 season, and he’s 12-17-1 when favored by more than a touchdown. The Chiefs were in a similar spot vs. the Raiders last week, and they allowed Gardner Minshew to walk in the back door for a cover. It should shock no one if the Buccaneers can do the same thing.
The Pick: Buccaneers +9.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Kareem Hunt Over 15.5 rush attempts (-130; BetMGM)
The Chiefs' best offense this season has been handing the ball to their running back. Hunt has been that guy since Pacheco went down with an injury. Despite not even starting the year with the team, Hunt has had at least 21 carries in three straight games. In a game where they’re favored by nearly 10 points, I see no reason why that would change.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+146; FanDuel)
Mayfield has been a touchdown-scoring machine this season. He has at least two touchdown passes in five straight games, including his lone game without Godwin and Evans. Even if he doesn’t play well, he’s done a great job of getting in the backdoor during garbage time. That was the case a few weeks ago vs. the Ravens when he had two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter alone. Regardless of the game script, Mayfield should have a chance to make it six in a row.
Mecole Hardman Over 7.5 receiving yards (-110; DraftKings)
Hardman may not be a key piece of the Chiefs’ offense, but he’s more involved than this number suggests. He’s been targeted on 18% of his routes run this season, and he has at least 8 yards in three straight games. Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman both have Hardman projected for double-digit receiving yards in this matchup.
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