Week 9 Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Titans at Steelers.
Matt LaMarca previews the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Titans and Steelers from a betting perspective.
Some football is better than no football, right?
We’ll put that theory to the test on Thursday as the Titans travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. Points are expected to be at a premium in this contest, with the Steelers listed as slight home favorites.
Both teams enter this contest with a bit of uncertainty at the quarterback position. Will Levis will make his second career start for the Titans, while Kenny Pickett is going to be a game-time decision for the Steelers.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive into the best bets for Thursday Night Football.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-115; BetMGM)
- Total: 36.5
- Moneylines: Titans +120/Steelers -145
It doesn’t get any better than Levis' pro debut vs. the Falcons. Well, that’s not 100% accurate. Levis wasn’t the most consistent producer vs. the Falcons, posting just a 32.4% Success Rate. That was the worst mark among all 32 quarterbacks with at least 20 plays in Week 8.
However, when Levis was successful, he was really successful. He racked up 238 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions, resulting in an average of 10.97 adjusted yards per attempt. Three of his touchdown passes went for at least 33 yards, so he was able to generate plenty of big plays.
Levis entered that game as part of a quarterback committee with Malik Willis, but Willis ended up playing just two snaps to Levis’s 66. Willis might still see a few designed plays against the Steelers, but it’s clear that Levis is the QB1 with Ryan Tannehill sidelined.
The question is—can he do it again vs. the Steelers?
Pittsburgh doesn’t stand out as an elite defensive team, but they’re a clear step up compared to the Falcons. The Steelers are seventh in EPA/play defensively, and they’re eighth in EPA/dropback. The Falcons are merely 24th in EPA/dropback, so it’s a significant downgrade from a matchup perspective.
The Steelers are also going to have some tape on Levis, which is something the Falcons did not. Atlanta was clearly not ready for Levis to unleash a few YOLO balls, but the Steelers likely will be.
Overall, I’d expect a clear downgrade from Levis in his second professional start.
Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) celebrates his touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons with quarterback Will Levis (8) during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023. Credit: Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK
On the other side, Pickett exited last week’s loss vs. the Jaguars with a rib injury, but there’s a chance he’s able to suit up vs. the Titans. In fact, Pickett has told reporters that he’s going to play, though he’ll likely carry a questionable designation into the matchup.
That said, the difference between Pickett and Mitch Trubisky doesn’t make a huge difference from a betting perspective. Matthew Freedman recently broke down a host of backup QB situations, and he told me that he actually has Trubisky as a slight upgrade over Pickett.
The bigger development is the loss of Minkah Fitzpatrick. He’s yet to practice this week, and he will almost certainly miss the game vs. the Titans. He hasn’t had his best season, but he was the No. 3 safety per PFF in 2022.
His absence will weaken the Steelers’ defense, and they need their defense to be strong to win football games. Their offense is 30th in yards, 29th in points, and 29th in EPA/play, so any drop-off defensively is going to take this team from roughly average to subpar.
Best Bet: Under 36.5 (-108; DraftKings)
I’m going to keep this one pretty simple. On one side, you have a quarterback making his second professional start. On the other, you have a banged-up quarterback playing for an offense that has been well below average to begin with.
That doesn’t sound like a good recipe for points.
This total is obviously pretty low, but low totals haven’t been a problem for bettors so far this season. Unders in general have crushed—they’ve gone 72-49-1 through the first eight weeks—and closing totals of 38.0 or lower have gone 6-1-1. Those games have gone under by an average of 5.19 points, so they’ve been winning pretty comfortably as well.
Mike Tomlin has also historically been the most profitable under coach in the past two decades. He’s gone 148-114-3 to the under, and he’s a ridiculous 45-26-2 since 2019-20. That includes a 6-1 mark so far this season.
Finally, primetime unders have smashed this season:
The under is getting a ton of early betting action—it’s received 98% of the dollars when it comes to the total (per the Action Network)—so this number could continue to decrease as we approach kickoff. Still, it’s my clear favorite bet in this matchup.
You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Jaylen Warren Over 6.5 carries (+105; BetMGM)
- Bet To: Over 6.5 carries (+100)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 7.2
Warren has essentially forced a full-on committee with former first-round pick Najee Harris. Harris still has a slight edge in snaps and carries, but Warren managed a season-high 36% carry share in last week’s loss to the Jaguars.
It’s easy to say that was due to the game script—the Steelers trailed the Jaguars for most of that contest—but it’s not like Warren saw a huge bump to his snap share. He played on just 52% of the team’s offensive plays, which is only a slight increase from his season-average of 46%.
Oct 22, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) scores on a 13-yard touchdown run against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The bigger issue is that Harris simply hasn’t been effective at the NFL level. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt in 2023, and he’s never averaged more than 3.9 yards per attempt as a professional. Warren has been slightly more efficient in 2023 (3.9 YPC), and his mark for his career is significantly better (4.5 vs. 3.8).
Warren should continue to eat into Harris’s workload, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he eventually overtakes him in the pecking order. We have Warren projected for more than seven carries vs. the Titans, so getting over 6.5 at anything better than even money is a strong proposition.
Chig Okonkwo Over 2.5 receptions (-115; DraftKings)
- Bet To: Over 2.5 (-130)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 3.0
Okonkwo was a target per route run stud in 2022, and he’s made a step forward in terms of his volume in 2023. He’s had a 71% route participation this season, including a 77% mark in Week 8.
Okonkwo also displayed solid chemistry with Levis in his first career start. He had a 24% target share in Week 8—his second-highest mark of the season—and he responded with four catches.
The Steelers have been tough against tight ends this season, but they could be slightly worse in that department without Fitzpatrick. Regardless, this number is simply too low for a player with the kind of utilization that Okonkwo has had recently.
Will Levis Over 9.5 rushing yards (-120; BetMGM)
- Bet To: Over 10.5 (-120)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 11.0
Levis made most of his impact as a passer last week, but don’t sleep on his rushing ability. He has sneaky athleticism—he ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at the combine—and the Titans made the most of his skillset last week. He had a 17% designed rush rate, and he finished with seven carries.
Levis only managed 11 yards with those carries, but the underlying workload is extremely promising. Even if he doesn’t see quite as many carries as he did the previous week, he should see a solid uptick in efficiency moving forward.
You can tail Levis at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Anytime Touchdown
I’m not a TD prop guy. I know, I know…I’m real fun at parties. While my buddies are all sweating out degenerate plays like a Noah Gray anytime TD during the Super Bowl, I’m the guy with a ticket on no safety at -1000.
Fortunately, Geoff Ulrich is more willing to live a little. He’s highlighted Diontae Johnson as a worthy anytime TD play in this game:
Diontae Johnson anytime TD (+220, FanDuel)
- Play to: +200
The last time Diontae Johnson scored a TD Jimmy Carter was president, a candy bar cost a nickel and your parents were buying a four-bedroom, 3000-square-foot palatial estate with some pocket change they found under their couch cushions.
That is a (slight) exaggeration but it has now been nearly two years since Johnson found the endzone.
I think this ends tonight. The Titans are a classic funnel to the pass defense that a superior route runner like Johnson should be able to annihilate. They’ve allowed the 7th most receptions to WRs and 10th most yards against thus far. Johnson’s also been seeing better downfield usage of late as he ended last week with 188 air yards.
Johnson has played the Titans twice since 2022 and in Week 7 of 2020 posted a 8-90-2 TD line. He’s simply too good a player to go TD-less for much longer and is either going to break a big play soon — with the increased downfield usage — or finally connect in the red zone on a simple crossing pattern (he saw two red zone targets last week).
Either way, I like taking the solid +220 odds on him available to score a TD for Week 9.
You can tail Johnson on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of at least $5 or more!
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will the defenses reign supreme? Can Levis build upon his impressive debut? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
I’m ultimately struggling to decide on who I side with in this game. On one hand, the Titans have a tremendous record as underdogs under head coach Mike Vrabel. They’re 27-17-1 when getting points under Vrabel during the regular season, and they covered in a similar situation vs. the Falcons last week.
That said, that game was at home, while this game will be played in Pittsburgh. It also feels logical to sell high on Levis, who was extremely inconsistent in his debut.
Ultimately, I’m going to pass on picking a team and side instead with the under on 36.5 points.
I’m going to pair the under with under 199.5 passing yards for Levis. We have him projected for 193.1 yards, and while that’s not a huge edge, it does correlate with under 36.5 points.
I’d love to add over 6.5 carries for Warren, but that’s not currently an option on BetMGM. Instead, I’ll add over 24.5 rushing yards. The Titans have been a below average rush defense this season, so Warren should be a bit more efficient with his carries than usual.
Finally, let's go with the under 219.5 passing yards for Pickett. We have him projected for roughly 15 yards less than this number, and it’s another one that correlates with the under and Warren’s over.
Add it all up, and it looks something like this:
Overall, +700 might not be the most appealing payout for a four-leg SGP, but these are four legs that all show value individually and have some positive correlation. That’s good enough for me.
Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
