Who Will Be The King Of The North?
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues, AFC North supremacy will be decided, Comeback Player of the Year futures, and more.
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
The AFC North will take center stage today. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Cleveland Browns at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 8 p.m. ET.
It may be the final week of the regular season, but for three of the four teams, the stakes for Saturday’s showdowns couldn’t be higher. Even the Browns are playing for draft positioning, as they’re currently tied with the Patriots, Titans, and Giants for the worst record in football.
The Ravens are currently listed as massive 20.0-point favorites over the Browns, so they are widely expected to take care of business. That said, they’ve already suffered one defeat to the Browns this season.
If the Ravens manage to get the job done, they will officially secure the AFC North crown and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. That would give them a home game in the first round of the postseason against either the Chargers or Steelers.
If the Browns can pull off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history, it opens the door for the Steelers to win the division. Even if the Ravens do win, the Steelers would still have plenty to play for. They need a win to secure the No. 5 seed and a matchup vs. the Texans in the first round. The Texans are the easiest matchup for the Wild Card teams on paper, so matching up with them instead of the Ravens is definitely worth playing for.
As for the Bengals, they need a win just to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They would need the Broncos and Dolphins both to lose on Sunday, but none of that matters unless they can beat the Steelers. They’re currently listed as small road favorites despite having a worse record, so it’s definitely possible.
Let’s dive into how I’m approaching Saturday’s NFL contests from a betting perspective.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Watercooler: What’s still up for grabs in NFL Week 18?
- NFL Saturday: Target the Ravens as massive favorites.
- NFL Futures: Is Sam Darnold the Comeback Player of the Year?
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🚑 The best ability is availability. Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland break down who’s playing in NFL Week 18.
💰 The final week of the regular season can only mean one thing: it’s time for NFL players to get paid. Geoff Ulrich breaks down the contract incentives and milestones to know heading into the final week.
🏈 What’s still up for grabs in NFL Week 18? All the playoff implications—and how to exploit them.
🎨 Who’s finding the paint this week? Anytime touchdown props for the final week of the regular season.
🪓 The action doesn’t stop with the end of the NFL regular season. Registration is open for playoff Guillotine Leagues!
NFL Week 18 Saturday Best Bets
by Matt LaMarca
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens—4:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN
The spread on this game continues to rise like a helium balloon. This game opened at Ravens -17.5 on Sunday evening, and it’s gotten as high as -20.0 at some locations. I recommended grabbing the Ravens in my Week 18 Early Lines piece, so hopefully, you hopped on board.
If you missed that number, can you still play the Ravens now? My answer would be yes. The Ravens are the far superior squad, though the Browns switching from Dorian Thompson-Robinson to Bailey Zappe at quarterback is a bit concerning. Thompson-Robinson is one of the worst players to see snaps at the position this season, so Zappe has to be a bit better by default.
Personally, I think the better way to play the Ravens is on the first-half line. You only have to lay -10.5, and there is less risk for a backdoor cover. It’s possible that the Ravens establish a big lead in this contest only to pull their starters once they’ve locked up a victory. They have a playoff matchup coming next week, so trying to get them a bit of rest toward the end of the game is the ideal scenario. In that case, the Browns might be able to erase some of the deficit against the Ravens’ backups.
Playing the first-half spread means that you don’t get the benefit of the full 60 minutes for the Ravens to establish their dominance, but they should be able to jump on the Browns pretty quickly. Building a lead in the first half would also give the Ravens the luxury of resting their starters if they choose so, so I expect the team to be extremely focused to start the game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers—8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN
This contest is expected to be much more competitive. The line movement in this game has been pretty interesting to watch. The Bengals were pretty quickly bet out to -3.0 across the industry, but there was definitely some sharp interest in the Steelers at that number. That caused the Steelers to move down to just +1.5.
Since then, the line has started to move back in the Bengals’ favor. It’s back up to -2.5 at some locations, so it will be interesting to see if another 3.0 pops up before kickoff.
At +3.0, the Steelers are my preferred side. There are three situations where Mike Tomlin has historically been one of the best in the business: at home, in division, and as an underdog:
Tomlin at home: 77-64-4 ATS (+6.5% ROI)
Tomlin in division: 61-43-3 ATS (+14.4% ROI)
Tomlin as a dog: 62-34-3 ATS (+25.2% ROI)
The Steelers check all three of those boxes on Saturday, creating the ultimate “Tomlin spot.” Historically, Tomlin is a near-perfect 9-1-2 when fitting all three criteria, good for a 60.6% return on investment. We’ve already seen Tomlin cover once in this scenario this season, pulling off an outright upset over the Ravens in Pittsburgh earlier this season.
That said, I do think the Bengals are the better team, and they’re also the team with more to play for. They absolutely need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, while Pittsburgh is already locked in. If anything goes wrong for the Steelers, they have the potential to pull the plug early.
Ultimately, I’m going to wait this one out. If I can grab a full field goal with the Steelers, it’s going to be too tempting to pass up. If that doesn’t happen, I’ll probably just look at the prop market. Regardless, this should be a very entertaining contest.
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A New Leader Emerges
by Matt LaMarca
Comeback Player of the Year. It’s an arbitrary award that has different definitions depending on how you interpret the word “comeback.” In recent years, we’ve started to see the award shift to reward players who are simply coming back from being mediocre.
That was the case with Geno Smith in 2022 and Joe Flacco last year. They weren’t necessarily coming back from an injury or something that derailed their previous campaign. They simply put together unexpected seasons given what we had seen from them in years prior.
The vague nature of the award was addressed by the AP this offseason. They stated that “the spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season." In theory, that would eliminate guys like Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson—players who would’ve gotten some attention in previous years but didn’t necessarily fit the “new” description.
However, the AP can only issue guidelines. They can’t force the voters to follow suit, and that was made clear earlier this week. Any votes cast for Darnold will reportedly still count:
That has resulted in a big shift in the betting odds. Darnold has moved all the way to -135 on DraftKings, making him the betting favorite. Joe Burrow—who fits the more traditional definition of Comeback Player of the Year—has dipped from the betting favorite to +105.
The question is, does this create any value? I think it does. While Burrow’s comeback season might not have been as unexpected as Darnold’s, it’s certainly worthy of recognition. He’s a player who missed most of last year with injuries only to lead the league in passing yards, touchdowns, and completions in his first year back. If that doesn’t say Comeback Player of the Year, I’m not sure what does.
Honestly, if the Bengals were better, Burrow would be in the MVP conversation. But with the team likely missing the playoffs, voters can still reward his statistical greatness with a Comeback Player of the Year vote. Darnold’s team is still live for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so he feels more likely for a down-ballot MVP vote than Burrow.
Even if some voters decide to go rogue and feel that Darnold meets the criteria, I think most will try to follow the AP's intended rules. That would point toward Burrow instead of Darnold.
The final week could also impact how this all plays out. If the Vikings lose to the Lions on Sunday Night Football and drop to the No. 5 seed, some voters may consider Darnold less worthy of the award than if they win. The Vikings are underdogs in that contest, so it’s another way for Burrow to overtake him down the stretch.
Ultimately, getting Burrow at better than even money feels like a solid value.
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