Wild Card Weekend Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Steelers @ Bills and Eagles @ Buccaneers.
Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich team up to provide their best bets for the two Wild Card Weekend games on Monday, including Steelers at Bills and Eagles at Buccaneers.
With two games remaining in Wild Card Weekend, Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca are here to break down their best bets for Bills vs. Steelers and Buccaneers vs. Eagles…
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Snowmaggedan may not be happening but the Steelers and Bills will still be dealing with very inclement weather this Monday afternoon.
The Bills are heavy favorites and feature a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen at QB. The Steelers needed a huge upset just to make the playoffs and are set to start QB Mason Rudolph for the fourth week in a row. So can the Steelers make this a game (or even pull off the upset) or are their better betting angles to attack in what could be the ugliest game of Super Wild Card Week? Geoff Ulrich discusses that and more below…
Bills vs. Steelers Best Bet: under 38.5 (-110, Bet365)
- Play to: 38.0 (-105)
As soon as this game was moved from Sunday to Monday you had a big shift in the total. It went from 34.0-34.5 up to 39.5 at one point. The number has now settled in the 38.0-38.5 range but it seems like it’s being propped up by people who think this scheduling move is taking away all the bad weather that was initially instore for this game on Monday. That doesn’t really seem to be the case.
As of writing, Buffalo weather on Monday reads as follows: Highs of 19F, 1-3 inches of snow and winds up to 19mph. Maybe we’re out of public safety territory but we’re not in shorts and t-shirts, or even pants and hoodies weather just yet.
We also have two teams who have strong under trends going up against each other. Both of these squads went 11-6 to the under this season with the Steelers also posting a 6-2 under record on the road. Pittsburgh also ranked 26th in plays per game and was 24th in offensive EPA per play; hardly a team I’d want to trust to get me points in a poor weather environment.
I regret missing the under on the totals that were available on this game early in the week (it opened at 42.0), but with the number popping back above 38.0 we now have another decent opportunity to buy-in on the under once again. With how these two teams have trended all season it feels like the best way to approach this game.
You can tail the under at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $1 or more!
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Bills vs. Steelers: Player Props
Josh Allen under 19.5 completions (-105, DraftKings)
- Play to: 18.5 (+100)
- Projection: 18.0
This total (19.5) feels somewhat high to me. Yes, the game will no longer be snowmageddon (thanks government!) but that doesn’t mean the conditions are going to be ripe for a shoutout. The cold weather alone could have an impact on passing efficiency but the wind is also still set to be at 15mph or greater, making it far less likely that either team will be taking a ton of shots downfield (unless absolutely necessary.)
You also have the fact that the Bills – who in past years have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league – have moved to be more of a ball-control, run-first team since switching offensive coordinators. They ended the season with the sixth-highest rush rate in the league and had the third-highest rush rate over the final three games of 2023. That’s led to some extremely low-output games from Allen of late, including a stretch between Weeks 15-17 where he completed less than 16 passes in three straight games.
Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the football against the Miami Dolphins during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
It seems like a certainty that if Buffalo does get a lead (and they likely will at some point, as -10.0 favorites) that we’ll see very conservative play calling from them, especially considering Allen’s ability to run the ball (he had 26 carries over the last two games of the regular season).
With our projections also in line, and showing a good edge to the under, fading this completion total sets up as one of the more desirable prop plays for me on double-header Monday.
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Najee Harris anytime TD +190 / first TD scorer +950 (BetMGM)
- Play to: +185 | +900
I think these are fair odds we are getting for Harris to find the endzone. Yes, the conditions will be ugly, but ugly is what the Steelers do best and Najee Harris managed to find the end zone last week in terrible conditions as well – and also paid off for first TD bettors against Baltimore.
Buffalo are big favorites but they are also slow starters. They’ve scored first in just 8 of 17 games this year, which is one of the lowest rates in the league for a team with a winning record. Harris has out-touched Jaylen Warren 20-8 in the red zone the last two weeks and likely gets first crack at any short-yardage situation in this game.
While I don’t expect the Steelers to score much in this game I do know that if they get anywhere near the Buffalo goal line they’ll almost certainly have two main goals: 1. come away with points (aka, don’t turn the ball over) 2. give their best red zone back multiple cracks at breaking a play (which also helps achieve their goal from point 1).
Ultimately, Harris is a lead back who has been running the ball well of late and should dominate red zone touches. Even with such a small game total, the +190 odds are big enough to take a shot that he scores for the fourth game in a row this week.
Bills vs. Steelers: Same-Game Parlay (+1600 DraftKings)
- Under 38.5
- Josh Allen rushing TD
- Allen under 19.5 compilations
- Allen under 1.5 passing TDs
- Jaylen Warren over 19.5 receiving yards
I think our under play from above correlates very strongly with Allen passing unders in this spot. Allen has been running more and more as the season has worn on and that’s included more around the goal line where he’s scored a rushing TD in 13 of his last 14 games (and scored 15 rushing TDs total over that 13-game stretch as well). Using the Allen rushing TD prop also correlates nicely with unders on his passing TDs (and completions) since any Allen rushing score would also mean the Bills are more likely to be ahead; and not passing the ball late in the game, as a result.
As for the Steelers, with conditions being what they are, I expect them to rely heavily on the pass-catching ability of Warren once again. Warren has averaged 25.4 yards receiving over his last five starts and with Pittsburgh set as 10.0 underdogs, he likely sees an uptick in up-tempo snaps near the end of this game.
With everything being equal, the correlation between these five plays is quite high for the most part, making the +1600 price more than fair for a 5-way SGP to sweat on early Monday evening.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The final game of Wild Card Weekend features the defending NFC Champs traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. The Eagles were one of the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, but a late season slump has seen their odds plummet. Can they right the ship against the NFC South champs? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Eagles-Buccaneers.
Bucs vs. Eagles Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.0 (-115; DraftKings)
It’s extremely tough to trust the Eagles at the moment. For starters, their defense has been abysmal down the stretch. From Week 8 on, they’re 30th in EPA/play defensively. They’ve been a bottom-four unit against the run and the pass, and they allowed at least 415 yards in their final two games against the Giants and Cardinals. Neither of those teams had anything to play for, while the Eagles were playing for the NFC East crown.
Additionally, their offense is really banged up. A.J. Brown has already been ruled out, while Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are at less than 100%. Hurts didn’t even throw the ball until Friday’s practice, which is not encouraging before a postseason contest.
Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) catches a pass during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Finally, the Eagles have been overvalued for most of the year. They have an expected record of just 8.6-8.4, while they’re 16th in yardage differential. The result is an ATS record of 7-8-2, while the Bucs are tied for the second-best mark in football at 11-6.
If Philly’s offense shows any signs of decline without their top receiver and with a banged-up quarterback, it’s going to be tough for their defense to overcome it. The Bucs aren’t a great team in their own right, but they’re at least healthy. They’ve also been great at stopping the run all season, which matches up well against the Eagles’ offense.
The key here is getting the full field goal. If this number dips to +2.5, the Bucs become far less appealing. Make sure to grab one of the remaining +3.0s while you still can.
Bucs vs. Eagles: Player Props
Julio Jones Over 1.5 receptions (-125; DraftKings)
I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t even know Julio Jones was on the Eagles. That’s how minimal his role has been this season.
However, the absence of Brown changes things. Jones has taken on a larger role down the stretch, posting a target share of at least 11% in three straight games, and he’s going to have even more opportunities with Brown sidelined. Brown leads the team with a 30% target share and 41% air yard share for the season, so there are plenty of additional looks up for grabs.
We have Julio projected for more than three targets and two catches vs. the Buccaneers, so there’s solid value with this number on DraftKings.
Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 receptions (-120; BetMGM)
Kenneth Gainwell didn’t get any work in the passing game in Week 18, but he was used extensively as a receiver in the two previous weeks. He had seven targets in his previous two games, which he turned into seven grabs for 53 yards.
With the Bucs defensive strength being against the run – and Hurts’ ability to throw the ball downfield in question – the Eagles may utilize the short passing game a bit more than usual. Gainwell has been the Eagles’ preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield, so he’d be the biggest beneficiary.
We have Gainwell projected for 2.3 targets and 1.9 receptions.
You can tail the over at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
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Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+105; DraftKings)
If you’re looking to target the Buccaneers in the anytime touchdown market, there are really only two players worth considering. Mike Evans and Rachaad White have combined for 22 scores this season, while the rest of the team has 14 combined. Cade Otton, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer are the only other players with multiple scores this season, and none of them have more than four.
Among the Bucs “big two,” Evans stands out as the better value. He’s available at +105 on DraftKings, despite being priced as low as -150 elsewhere. He leads the squad in both touchdowns (13) and expected touchdowns (10.9), and he’s scored in 11 of his 17 games. Overall, getting this prop at better than even money makes a lot of sense.
Bucs vs. Eagles Same-Game Parlay (+672; FanDuel)
- Buccaneers ML
- Julio Jones Over 15.5 receiving yards
- Rachaad White Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
- White anytime touchdown
Instead of playing the Bucs on the spread, I will use the moneyline for the SGP. I’m also going to pair that with the over on Jones’ receiving prop since that grades out extremely well in our projections.
After that, I’m banking on a big game from White. He’s not the most efficient runner in football, but he commands a monster workload on a weekly basis. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, expect him to find success in this juicy matchup.
You can tail the Same Game Parlay at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!
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