I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props market and publishing a series of articles highlighting bets I like.

Here are my most recent articles.

• Rookie futures and awards markets 
• Rookie props
• QB passing props
• QB rushing props
• RB rushing props

In this article, I'm looking at 2024 WR receiving props (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

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Davante Adams

Over 1,000.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
• Projection: 1,119.6

As I noted in my piece on 11 stats from 2023 that matter for 2024, Adams led the league last year with a 79% WOPR.

("WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards. You can find the stat and other air yards data in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool).

With his elite usage, Adams amassed 1,144 yards receiving despite playing in an offense with poor QB play, and I expect him to be similarly involved in the 2024 Raiders offense, which should perform better with QB Gardner Minshew.

For fantasy, I still have Adams ranked as a top-12 WR, so I like him a little better than the consensus of 2024 Underdog fantasy drafters (per our customizable Fantasy Life ADP Tool). 

Even though he turns 32 years old in December, Adams still seems highly likely to have his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Tee Higgins

Over 875.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
• Projection: 976.8

Last year Higgins played only 12 games and was hampered with rib and hamstring injuries throughout the campaign. Additionally, QB Joe Burrow struggled with a calf strain in the first month of the season and then missed much of the second half with a wrist injury.

The result for Higgins was a subpar performance marked by career lows in targets (76) and receiving yards (656).

But in his three prior seasons, Higgins was a consistent and productive pass catcher.

• 2020 (16 games): 108 targets | 908 yards
• 2021 (14 games): 110 targets | 1,091 yards
• 2022 (16 games): 109 targets | 1,029 yards

With Higgins playing on the franchise tag, there's always the risk of him cautiously sitting out some games if he suffers a nagging midseason injury — but injuries are tough to predict, and it would be aggressive to expect Higgins to miss more than 2-3 games this year.

Given that Burrow and Higgins are both healthy entering the season, we should likely see the Bengals offense return to form, and that probably means around 110 targets and 1,000 yards receiving for Higgins.

Christian Watson

Under 750.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -115 (DraftKings)
• Projection: 739.9

Watson has missed 11 games in his two NFL seasons due to lingering hamstring issues, and although he's only 25 years old there's the possibility that his soft-tissue woes will be an ongoing concern for the rest of his career.

On top of that, in his extended absence last year — Watson played just nine games — other WRs stepped up to fill the void, and when he returned to action the Packers opted to rely on a robust receiver rotation, evidenced by the five-man unit they featured in their two postseason games (per our industry-leading and all-powerful Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

• Christian Watson: 46% route rate | 11% target rate | 5% target share
• Romeo Doubs: 81% route rate | 26% target rate | 23% target share
• Jayden Reed: 63% route rate | 19% target rate | 13% target share
• Dontayvion Wicks: 51% route rate | 15% target rate | 8% target share
• Bo Melton: 27% route rate | 21% target rate | 6% target share

If his playoff usage is representative of a long-term plan by the Packers to limit his workload so that he can stay healthy, then Watson not only might not be the team's No. 1 WR this year … but he might not even be the No. 2 WR.

And this doesn't even take into account that the Packers could utilize more two-TE sets this year to capitalize on their young up-and-coming duo of Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, which would limit the overall number of snaps allocated to the WR cohort.

Plus, the Packers might run the ball more this year with the addition of RB Josh Jacobs.

All of that put together, it's easy to envision a scenario in which Watson fails to exceed the 750-yard threshold.

Jayden Reed

Under 775.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -110 (DraftKings)
• Projection: 760.6

Everything I just said about Watson (minus the injury analysis) applies to Reed. Given the team's excellent pass-catching depth, it's easy to imagine multiple WRs at the top of the depth chart underperforming expectations.

And he could be especially vulnerable if the team uses more two-TE sets, given that last year as a rookie he played primarily in three-WR formations. 

Reed is a talented upside player, but his lack of proven ability to play on the perimeter could limit his overall usage and thus production in 2024.

Plus, unders tend to be sharp in season-long markets, as there are so many ways for them to hit: Namely injury, individual and team underperformance, changes in workload and role, and suspension. In a crowded WR room, everyone looks like a candidate for the under.

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Courtland Sutton

Under 800.5 Yards Receiving

• Bet: -115 (DraftKings)
• Projection: 783.7

So much went right for Sutton last season … and he still had only 772 yards receiving. Turning 29 years old in October, Sutton feels like he's on the Allen Robinson aging trajectory: Even though he's not old, his physical skills seem to have deteriorated, and I doubt he has what it takes to be a true No. 1 WR at this stage.

In our official Fantasy Life projections (managed by the sharp Dwain McFarland), we have Sutton projected for 788 yards.

Although the delta between the prop and our projections is minimal, it means something to me that both Dwain and I are on the under.

In an offense that will feature either Bo Nix (rookie) or Jarrett Stidham (backup journeyman) as the starting QB, it's easy to be skeptical about an aging and slowing pass catcher who had just 90 targets in 16 games last year.