Before we dive into the Week 16 picks, let’s recap our picks over the past few weeks:

• Week 15: No gems piece, we wrote up a playoff best ball primer
• Week 14: Wilson and Sutton delivered
• Week 13: Some hits, but no big wins
• Week 12: Solid week, nailed Pat Freiermuth but Shaheed got hurt
• Week 11: Brutal week, we were on the Jags but not the right one!
• Week 10: Seattle/Washington hit, but not in a big enough way to win tournaments
• Week 9: Rough week, only Hunter Henry helped squads
• Week 8: Whiffed on our AFC South QB stacks, but Trey Mcbride did us proud
• Week 7: Very upset we didn’t unearth D’onta Foreman, but Rashee Rice and James Cook got there
• Week 6: Rough week, had the wrong QB/TE duo from Commanders/Falcons game
• Week 5: Resurrection bye week
• Week 4: Fields breakout game vs. the Broncos
• Week 3: Whiffed on our RBs and Jahan Doson, but nailed Tank Dell 
• Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.
• Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points

We took a detour from Hidden Gems last week to write up a playoff best ball primer, but we are back to unearth some sneaky plays for Week 16 contests.

Before we dig into the plays, I do want to make sure people are taking advantage of all the different tournament offerings in the Underdog Fantasy lobby.

This piece is geared to any contest that features 6-person drafts and Underdog has those in a variety of shapes and sizes. 

The flagship Battle Royale contest has the big $20,000 top prize, but you will also be competing against 150-maxers in those contests. 

If you are playing small volume, I highly recommend taking advantage of The Hurry Up ($3, 20-max), the Fullback Dive ($25, 5-max), and The Extra Point ($5, single entry):

For Week 16, I have two RB plays and a veteran WR I like in drafts. At the end, I’ll give a few thoughts about the QB and TE positions, which are much trickier to navigate this week.

As a reminder, you can put these strategies into practice on Underdog, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE.

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RB: Ty Chandler (ADP: 33.6)

There’s a new starting RB for the Minnesota Vikings, but the market has not caught up. 

With Alexander Mattison out of the lineup last week, Chandler dropped 25 points while operating as a bellcow back (82% of the rushing attempts and a 12% target share). 

Mattison hasn’t been practicing again this week and even if he does return the team sounds like they want to feature Chandler regardless:

The Lions are decent against the run, but this game has a 47-point total–the second-highest on the slate–and Chandler’s pass-catching role should keep him on the field in most situations.

At his current ADP, Chandler is drafted in less than 30% of drafts, which makes him a much stronger selection than some of the RBs going ahead of him who don’t project much better yet are getting selected in every draft (Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, etc.).

RB: Chuba Hubbard (ADP: 35.3)

If scrolling down for Chandler doesn’t get the juices flowing, how about scrolling even further for the Panthers feature back, Chuba Hubbard?

Hubbard’s takeover of the Panthers backfield has been one of the more overshadowed developments this fantasy season.

Despite playing on one of the worst teams in football, Hubbard has delivered back-to-back RB2 finishes in Weeks 14 and 15. He’s averaging 22.5 rushing attempts and 2 targets a game over that span:

While a low-end RB2 finish isn’t going to win us a tournament, his underlying usage hints that there is meat on the bone for a Top 12 finish if the stars align.

And I’d argue that their home matchup this week vs. a Packers defense that gives up the 11th most points to RBs could be that spot.

When you look at our projections for the week, there’s less than a 3-point gap between the slate’s top play (Rachaad White) and the two RBs I’ve spotlighted today (Chandler and Hubbard).

These are the perfect spots for us to exploit in drafts. When the projections aren’t that different, we always want to be scrolling down and taking the players who aren’t getting drafted in every contest.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: 34.3)

It sounds like Will Levis will miss this week, which means the Titans will turn back to Ryan Tannehill for their home matchup vs. the Seahawks.

Regardless of who starts, I really like DeAndre Hopkins in drafts this week.

Not only is he a complete afterthought who rarely gets drafted, but the Titans get a soft matchup vs. a Seahawks secondary who has given up the 7th most points to opposing WRs.

Hopkins is the exact type of WR archetype that we want to target in these contests:

• Great target floor (he’s averaging 8 per game on the year, but 11 over his past three)
• High aDot (16.2) that can translate to big plays (he’s had 2 games with over 200 air yards in the past three weeks)
• A role in the RedZone (has 5 endzone targets over the past three weeks)

Put it all together and you have a WR profile with a decent floor and a massive ceiling who could certainly finish as a Top 5 WR on the slate.

Additional Notes for Week 16

QB is tough this week, there aren’t a ton of scroll-down plays I love. The two most interesting clicks involve players with injury concerns in Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence. Neither are getting drafted inside the Top 6 QBs right now, so they would provide some nice leverage on the other signal callers getting selected in 100% of drafts. Hopkins could pair well as a bring-back to Geno stacks.

The most interesting TE is Cole Kmet. He’s currently going as TE7, but is tied to the QB1 on the slate in Justin Fields. Because most DJ Moore drafters are also selecting Fields, I like the idea of backdoor stacking Fields with Kmet or simply taking Kmet as a one-off and hoping he hogs the TDs. 

Good luck this week, let’s ship a tournament.