Peter Overzet breaks down some of his favorite NFL DFS plays for Week 11. 

As DFS has evolved, so have the strategies utilized by the field. In the early days of DFS, simply "playing the best plays" was a dominant strategy before optimizers helped the entire field identify said plays.

Then correlation—something we talk about a lot around here—became an edge to push. By "stacking" up a QB with one to two pass catchers from their team, you could: 

1) reduce the number of things you need to get right in a lineup, and 

2) open yourself up to the exact kind of variance you want to embrace in tournaments with top-heavy prizes.

But in the past years, the field has gotten exponentially sharper. Playing the best "points per dollar" value plays and dialing up a "double stack with a bring back" is simply not enough. Not only are those strategies table stakes at this point, they are likely overutilized by hand-builders who haven't evolved with the increasingly competitive landscape.

The rise of simulations, aka "sims" in the DFS space, have illuminated a lot of +EV strategies that are still underutilized by the field. These unique angles still rely on "correlation," but in ways that might seem unconventional on the surface.

Today, I have three value stack ideas for Week 11 DFS tournaments on DraftKings—two of them fall into that aforementioned "unconventional" stack bucket, while the third is a classic Vomit Stack.

Let's get to it…

🏆 THE QB/RB STACK (Bo Nix & Audric Estime)

• QB Bo Nix ($5300)
• RB Audric Estime ($4500)

On the surface, a QB and RB pairing feel negatively correlated. If a QB is passing TDs, doesn't that mean the RB isn't rushing them in? That negative correlation is true on an individual play basis, but not necessarily true over the course of the game. 

When an offense rolls, the QB/RB pairing is often responsible for the majority of those points. We've seen this play out multiple times this year with Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry, and most recently, Kyler Murray/James Conner.

You'll notice a theme there. All of those QBs have massive rushing upside, which means they don't need to bring along a pass catcher on a massive day.

That brings us to Nix and Estime, who are admittedly a dollar-store version of those previously mentioned QB/RB stacks, but possess all of the ingredients to unlock a tournament-winning roster thanks to their cheap price tags and upside.

Let's start with Nix, who has been rock solid over the last four weeks, averaging 19.4 fantasy points. As Dwain noted in his rankings risers column, “The rookie ranks seventh in designed rushing attempt share (12%) and scramble rate (7%) out of all QBs with at least 175 snaps.”

This is a great matchup for Nix, too. The Broncos are 3-point home favorites vs. a Falcons defense that has given up the 10th-most points per game to QBs through the air. We also know Nix has the ability to put up a big score against a weak defense like he did in Week 8 vs. Carolina (29.8 fantasy points). 

Nix won't fly completely under the radar this week, but I'd wager that the majority of Nix enjoyers will stack him up with Courtland Sutton ($5900), who is coming off a big three-game stretch after a bagel in Week 7 vs. the Saints. 

Because of Nix's rushing upside and willingness to spread the ball around, I'd prefer to sidestep the chalky QB/WR stack and instead pivot to an intriguing QB/RB stack with his fellow rookie, Estime.

Last week marked a flippening in the Broncos backfield as the 21-year old bested Javonte Williams in snaps (45% > 29%) and rush attempts (64% > 5%). Because this resulted in only 53 scoreless yards, this changing of the guard will likely go overlooked. 

But like Nix, this matchup sets up positively for Estime. As home favorites in an assumed positive game script, he should have plenty of opportunities and the Falcons are nothing special against the run. 

Matthew Freedman did the heavy lifting for us on this matchup in his RB favorites piece: "The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (45.2%), EDGE Lorenzo Carter (concussion, IR) and DT Ruke Orhorhoro (ankle, IR) are out, and DT Ta'Quon Graham (pectoral) might miss Week 11."

For less than 10K in total salary, this funky stack has the potential to massively outperform expectations while allowing you to jam in a bunch of other studs.

🏆 PHANTOM STACK (BILLS)

• Khalil Shakir ($6300)
• Curtis Samuel ($3300) OR Dawson Knox ($3500)

Josh Allen is expensive this week ($7800) and faces a tough matchup against a stingy Chiefs defense. Because of this, he doesn't grade out as a solid value at the QB position.

However, that doesn't mean that we should fully ignore the Bills passing game this weekend. In fact, there are multiple options that I think we should consider utilizing in what I like to call a "Phantom Stack" (s/o Ron Stewart for coining that during best ball summer). 

With Dalton Kincaid (knee) and Keon Coleman (wrist) both unlikely to play, there is a ton of value in the Bills pass-catching room.

Shakir is the key piece here. Since Week 7, his role has been elite:

We also can't forget that Shakir has given the Chiefs fits in previous meetings, including a 7-44-1 receiving line on 9 targets in the playoffs last year.

In addition to Shakir, I like pairing him with one of Samuel or Knox without Allen. I know it seems weird to "stack" without the QB, but this is a game about salaries. If a QB like Nix can give us 75% of Allen's production at a $2500 salary discount, we can still reap the benefits of correlation with the Bills' catchers. This is something you'll see pop up in top simulated lineups—a secondary stack without the QB.

Samuel ran 88% of the routes last week and earned 8 targets, while Knox saw his highest route percentage (63%) on the year. I lean toward pairing Knox with Shakir, but both are viable.

🏆 VOMIT STACK (BROWNS)

• QB Jameis Winston ($5500)
• WR Cedric Tillman ($5300) AND Elijah Moore ($4300)

We've already gone long on two unconventional stack ideas, but I'd be remiss if I didn't leave you with a classic Vomit Stack for Week 11.

A revenge game for Winston vs. the Saints is too compelling to ignore and there's one extremely obvious stacking partner in Tillman. 

Since Cooper left Cleveland, Tillman has an outrageous 91% route rate, 21% target rate, and 24% target share. That usage has resulted in a 21-255-3 line on 32 targets in three games. And now he gets a weakened Saints secondary that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game of any team on the slate. 

And because Winston doesn't run a ton, we'll want to tack on a second pass catcher to round out this stack. David Njoku ($5500) is always in play, but he's pricey this week and a Vomit Stack is all about slopping it up with some cheap, gross plays.

That leads us to Moore, who is: 

1) averaging 9 targets per game over the last three weeks and is 

2) not perpetual disappointment, Jerry Jeudy. 

***

If you'd like my favorite plays and sleepers for Underdog contests, I'll be posting a strategy video on the Deposit Kingdom channel on Friday afternoon. 

Good luck this week.

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