Peter Overzet presents three DFS stack options for Week 14 of the NFL season.

When you consider that Week 18 is a free-for-all with so many teams resting players, we basically only have four more big main slates remaining this season.

While that makes me sad, it also ratchets up the sense of urgency to make the most of every last slate before we enter the dark abyss that is the offseason.

Don't get me wrong, I still love playing DFS in the NFL playoffs, but the smaller slates are far less interesting from a strategic perspective.

When we have 10+ games on the slate, our opponents have more opportunities to make mistakes. 

With that being said, I've circled three stacks to consider for Week 14 DFS contests—and two from the same game! The salaries referenced are specifically for DraftKings, but a lot of the concepts are transferable to other sites as well. 

Let's dig in…

🏆 The Baker's Dozen, err, Double (Bucs)

• QB Baker Mayfield ($6400)
• Min 2: WR Mike Evans ($7200), Sterling Shepard ($4000), Cade Otton ($4400)

The cat is out of the bag on Bucs RB Bucky Irving ($6600), who has emerged as one of the most exciting players in the league. But with that notoriety comes plenty of attention in DFS tournaments. 

In smaller contests, I think it's smart to include the RB in your main stack, but for larger contests a pivot to the passing game could provide huge dividends. 

The Bucs present us a golden opportunity to do exactly that this weekend, especially with Mayfield's down game last week helping to keep him slightly under the radar in Week 14.

But it's hard to find a better setup than what Baker and Co. have vs. the Raiders this week. They have a 26.5 team total—the second highest on the slate behind only the Eagles—and Las Vegas is plucky enough to keep things competitive (and Baker chucking). 

Despite last week's dud, Mayfield is the QB5 on the season, averaging over 20 points per game. He now gets a Raiders defense that is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game through the air. 

I likely don't need to sell you on Evans, but I will just in case. He's been dominant since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 13 (28% target share and 49% air-yards share). In addition, the Raiders secondary is extremely beat up (CBs Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs are both out) and there's the added narrative boost with Evans chasing his 11th straight year with 1,000 receiving yards (he's at 521 currently). 

Where we get creative with this stack is adding on one of Otton or Shepard to the mix. Not only do they provide salary relief, but they should be relatively contrarian. 

Otton has slowed down since Evans returned, but his underlying usage is still rock solid (89% route rate and 16% target share) over the last two weeks. The real selling point, though, is the Raiders defense, that gives up the second-biggest fantasy boost to opposing tight ends (4.5 points per game).

The other option for the double stack would be Shepard, who has emerged as the clear No. 2 WR in this offense with back-to-back weeks of 7 targets. Also, you get the added synergy of playing a man named Shepard during the month the Good Shepherd was born (sorry to get political). 

🏆 The Creative "Chalk" Stack (49ers)

• QB Brock Purdy ($6200)
• RB Isaac Guerendo ($5400)
• Min 2: WR Jauan Jennings ($5200), WR Deebo Samuel ($5900), George Kittle ($5800)

The worst-kept secret in fantasy sports right now is the massive role Guerendo is stepping into with CMC and Jordan Mason disappearing from our lives. He is going to be overwhelmingly popular in DFS this weekend, but that doesn't mean we can't play him!

The key is to find creative ways to utilize him so our Guerendo rosters are differentiated from the field's Guerendo rosters. 

And considering how abysmal this Niners offense has looked of late, my hunch is that the field will largely play Guerendo as a one-off. But think of it like this … if Guerendo smashes at high ownership, it means this Niners offense is succeeding. And if that's the case, then other pieces in this offense—pieces who will be mostly unused by the field—are likely to have solid games as well.

This all leads me to the idea of playing Guerendo as part of a Niners stack with Purdy and a pass catcher or two.

Purdy is going to go completely overlooked in this price range and players gravitate to Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Kyler Murray. Previous to the disaster snow game in Buffalo, Purdy had delivered four Top-8 QB finishes and once just outside (QB13) over the past five weeks. The floor and ceiling are still intact here, especially with him now healthy (he's been practicing in full this week).

I like pairing Purdy and Guerendo with one or two of Jennings, Kittle, and Samuel. While the fantasy points haven't been there, the usage has still been rock solid. Over the past three weeks:

• Jennings: 32% targets
• Samuel: 23% targets
• Kittle: 19% targets

If Purdy succeeds, he is likely to bring at least one pass catcher along for the ride. I know everyone has been burned by Samuel, but this is the exact spot I expect them to leverage his rushing abilities with a few extra manufactured touches.

TLDR: Don't resist the Guerendo value, swerve into the skid. 

🏆 The "Vomit" Stack (Raiders)

• QB Aidan O'Connell ($5600)
• WR Jakobi Meyers ($5600) AND Brock Bowers ($6500)

OK, these first two stacks weren't especially hard sells (I think), so let me alienate the crowd with our weekly vomit stack—AKA a stack so gross that when I mention it you feel a little throwup in your mouth.

The name most likely to induce such a reaction is Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell. But before you grab a mint (actually go ahead, I'll wait), what if I told you that he's actually been pretty decent? He's got 567 passing yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT on the year. He hung with the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Black Friday. And best of all, he gets a Bucs defense that ranks No. 32 in defensive dropback success rate (51.1%) and has allowed the second-most passing yards per game on the slate.

In addition to the matchup, AOC (sorry to get political again) has one of the cleanest double stack setups you'll see with Bowers and Meyers. 

Meyers has been a usage monster since Davante Adams left, averaging 15 points per game with a gaudy 29% target share and 37% end-zone target share.

Bowers has been dominant, too. He's coming off three straight games with target totals of 16, 9, and 13. He is No. 1 in the league with 84 receptions. And that's not just among TEs … that's all pass catchers. Truly absurd stuff for a rookie. 

Outside of the random deep shot to Tre Tucker, you know where the ball is going in this offense. And the matchup couldn't be any better. 

The Bucs are banged up everywhere in their secondary and have been giving up big games to opposing WRs (10th-highest boost) and TEs (No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs). 

Similar to the field using Guerendo as a one-off, I expect most DFS players to use either Meyers or Bowers as one-offs in their lineups this week. Differentiate yourself by going all in on the entire Raiders trio.

***

If you'd like my favorite plays and sleepers for Underdog contests, I'll be posting a strategy video on the Deposit Kingdom channel on Friday afternoon. 

Good luck this week. 

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