J.J. McCarthy Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Chris Allen breaks down the details on J.J. McCarthy as a dynasty fantasy football prospect heading into the 2024 NFL Draft.
J.J. McCarthy Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 213.1 overall (QB31), rookie QB4
I’m getting Kirk Cousins vibes looking over J.J. McCarthy’s profile.
Hold up. Before you get upset or pinpoint a specific attribute about Kirk that has nothing to do with McCarthy, let me explain.
Michigan wins the national championship. It’s a 34-13 blowout. Naturally, you’d want to credit the QB on the winning side. It’s what we did for Stetson Bennett the previous two years, Mac Jones in 2021, and Joe Burrow during his historic run.
But McCarthy had 22 dropbacks in that game. His RB, Blake Corum, was the MVP. Like Cousins in his early days, McCarthy has done just enough for anyone to want to build around him. But whether he’s a “floor raiser” or “ceiling maximizer” is still up for debate.
Pros and Cons of J.J. McCarthy
Pros
After laying down a thick layer of skepticism, you might think I believe the kid can’t play. Let’s be reasonable. I put him in the Cousins range, and we’ve gotten productive fantasy seasons out of Atlanta’s new signal caller. Plus, even a casual glance at McCarthy in his element would indicate he has a place in the NFL.
Of course, social media has plenty of similar highlights. But looking at his career as a whole, his metrics start to stand out.
Cautiously Aggressive
Tigers don’t change their stripes.
At least, that’s how the saying goes.
We can get a feel for a quarterback’s style of play (i.e., their stripes) from their college days. Take Jordan Love, for example.
Lobs downfield and attempts to create out-of-structure plays litter the film from his final year at Utah State. More recently, we saw Bryce Young play more from within the pocket and work the middle of the field. Regardless, by looking at McCarthy’s tendencies, we can get a gauge on a stylistic comparison for the former Wolverine.
McCarthy’s 80.0% adjusted completion percentage is the second-highest in his class, with a slightly below-average passing aDOT relative to the last four QB prospect groups drafted early. Plus, Michigan used play-action concepts in 24.1% of his dropbacks, which indicates McCarthy’s schematic versatility. Even better, U of M’s triggerman could attack a variety of areas of the field, which is what many NFL offenses need to target to move the ball downfield.
In short, McCarthy already has the major traits. He can work the intermediate parts of the field with high-end accuracy. And he’s got crossing concepts down. There are even some intangibles to his game that would keep most coaches interested in his future.
Creating Out of Structure
When under pressure, McCarthy had the second-highest completion rate in his class (71.2%). The next closest was Drake Maye, at 65.6%. Even on bad reps, his eyes are still looking toward his pass-catchers.
McCarthy’s ability to process in real-time and create out-of-structure plays is a sought-after trait. With the right infrastructure, a QB with the skillset to buy time for his receivers to convert critical downs and extend drives would be valuable to any team.
Cons
Passing Volume
So, let’s get back to that “Blake Corum MVP” talk from earlier.
It was a single game. DeVonta Smith earned the MVP title in his final collegiate season. It doesn’t always have to be a QB. And that’s true. But Corum’s workload, at the expense of McCarthy’s dropbacks, puts the QB prospect in an unfavorable light amongst his peers.
The other five QBs in this class averaged 489 dropbacks in their final season. McCarthy had 370. Michigan’s passing rate ranked 117th in the CFB. But throwing fewer passes, even with a gap this large, isn’t a major concern by itself. However, when combined with potential mechanical issues, more questions arise.
Ball Placement Issues
Remember, McCarthy’s 80.0% adjusted completion rate was the second-highest in this year’s crop of prospects. But when contextualized for depth, things start to break down.
His ratings when passing to the outside of the left or right hash are nearly night and day. And, to be clear, it’s not a question of arm strength but ball placement. We saw some of it at the NFL Combine.
Subtle mistakes in his footwork can lead to obvious mistakes after the ball leaves his hand. Coaching can help, but if put into a starting role in Week 1 of his rookie season, results may vary.
Fantasy Football Outlook for J.J. McCarthy
There’s no doubt a team has talked themselves into drafting him. Whether it’s in the first round or on Day 2, he has earned consequential draft capital. However, infrastructure and schematic fit will become crucial parts of his fantasy outlook.
Like Cousins, we’ll value McCarthy based on his surroundings. At 203 lbs., defenders will quickly test his desire to scramble despite McCarthy having 39 rushing attempts in his final year. If his slight frame forces him to stay in the pocket, the quality of his pass-catchers will dictate his value.
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