Dynasty Rookie Profile: Nathaniel Dell

Nathaniel Dell

WR Rookie Model Percentile: 65th
Rookie Rank: 29th overall (WR13)
Underdog ADP: 211.0
Landing Spot: Houston Texans (69th overall)

Fantasy Outlook

“Let’s assume he gets Day 2 draft capital. Even with an early-round value, he’ll need to make an impact in his rookie season.” - Me, April 2023.

The good news is a team selected Tank Dell on Day 2. However, it was the Texans. The same team that signed Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown (44.5% slot rate in ‘23) during the free agency period. Plus, John Metchie III is (thankfully) set to return along with Nico Collins.

At best, Dell will be the team’s fifth option with an offensive coordinator that came from San Francisco (23rd in pass rate over expected last season). Without a direct path to targets on a run-first offense, Dell's hardly worth a roster spot until we see how the offense comes together.

Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Waiver wire target

Summary

OK, I messed up. Here’s how I formed my preliminary thoughts about Nathaniel “Tank” Dell.

I got stuck on the nickname. It’s like in Goodfellas, where everyone in the crew earned their moniker from a physical quirk or something they had done. So, I assumed Tank was a big guy. And his collegiate accolades made him seem larger than life.

Dell led the American Athletic Conference in receiving yards during his 2021 season and was the NCAA leader in his final season as a Houston Cougar. Few other receivers in this class can boast top-3 marks in targets, yards, and scores over their last collegiate campaign, but Dell can.

The former Biletnikoff Semifinalist made PFF’s second All-America team with Jordan Addison and Rashee Rice. With all the acclaim, I was confused by the lack of buzz. I thought he was a monster! But then I looked at his athletic testing numbers.

Admittedly, this is my fault. I made assumptions based on a name and some stats. It won’t be the last time I fall prey to the spreadsheets, but Dell’s frame will have folks making priors in the opposite direction. I can see a path, albeit narrow, for Dell to become a valued fantasy asset. Let’s start with what he can do on the field.

Pros

Target magnet

OK, I think I get the “Tank” nickname now. Quick backstory: I used to play role-playing games like World of Warcraft religiously (Alliance tankadin). In those games, the tank role absorbed most of the damage, kept the enemy’s focus (aggro), and was the party leader. Without a doubt, Dell was Houston’s tank.

Targets per route run graph

Ironically, the 5’8” WR stood taller than most of his classmates when it came to earning targets. Over his final two seasons, Dell’s 28.0% targets per route run (TPRR) was the third-highest mark in the class.

In 2021 and 2022, Tank was the only Houston receiver with triple-digit looks. No one else cracked 60. Even better, the types of targets he got made him stand out even more.

While he played 60.1% of his snaps from the slot, he lined up outside too—but not just as a decoy. Dell’s 29.7% slot TPRR aligned with his 25.5% TPRR from the perimeter. He’ll need to work on his release against tight coverage but produced independent of his alignment.

Wins at all three levels

My other assumption was that Dell could only be useful on short or deep attempts. He’s so small, play-callers would have to either scheme him open early on slants or have him get free down the seam. Again, Tank plows through my priors.

Yards per route run graph

Dell was at or above the class’s average yards per route run (YPRR) at all three yardage depths. And his success with intermediate patterns wasn’t much of a surprise.

His speed can create the 1-2 yards of space needed to haul in a comeback or curl route. Matt Harmon found the same when putting together Dell’s profile for Reception Perception.

Weaving through traffic on in-breaking routes may be a flaw, but a teachable one. Regardless, again Dell highlights that he can be more than a gadget receiver as he can work against coverage all over the field.

Cons

He’s a glass cannon

You already know Dell’s weakness. Just look at him.

His size makes him a liability when placed into contested-catch situations. Dell’s 46.4% contested catch rate ranked 13th in the class, reinforcing the idea that he struggles to work through defenders. Plus, he’s easy to bring down once someone catches up to him.

Dell produced 926 yards after the catch out of his 2,383 receiving total. At 5.3 YAC per reception, he was fourth-worst in creating YAC with only 30 avoided tackles. Teams will need him to fight for those extra yards, and Dell has yet to show he can do it consistently.

Fantasy Impact

Despite his frame, Dell can win at all three levels of the field. His acceleration makes him a nightmare on short-yardage routes, while the same quick-twitch ability instantly creates windows on intermediate patterns. And, of course, he can stop and go on a dime for an explosive gain. The ceiling potential for Tank is limitless, but he has some hurdles to clear.

No, I wasn’t taking a parting shot at his height. But it’ll be a constant talking point throughout the draft process.

Let’s assume he gets Day 2 draft capital. Even with an early-round value, he’ll need to make an impact in his rookie season. However, his new offense will need to deploy him like Houston did until he expands his skills as a route runner.

A pass-friendly offense needing an interior speedster with special teams experience would best fit Dell’s optimal path to becoming a fantasy star. Preferably one with veterans to surround the diminutive (speed) demon. Think Dallas, Cincinnati (with Tyler Boyd likely gone in ’24), or the 49ers.

With a team who knows what he is and can be, Dell could become the exception rather than the rule regarding small prospects.

This could make him an intriguing late-round dart in best ball drafts. You can take a flyer and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 by signing up for Underdog Fantasy below to start drafting today!

Nathanie]l Dell