Week 2 Dynasty Breakout Watch. Roschon Johnson looks like a steal.

We are back! Week 1 was fun; let’s make Week 2 even better.

Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.

For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.

Roschon Johnson - RB, Chicago

It wasn’t the day Bears fans wanted as Green Bay continued their dominance of their neighbors to the south. However, not all is lost, as rookie RB Roschon Johnson flashed the type of talent that could make him the steal of the draft.

Selected in the fourth round, Johnson spent his time at Texas living in the shadow of Bijan Robinson. For savvy dynasty managers, it was probably for the best. Johnson was as good (or better) than Robinson in many facets.

Back in March, Eliot Crist noted, “The man is a nightmare to try to tackle. Since 2015, (Roschon) Johnson's missed tackles forced per touch is the highest in the NCAA at 0.394; numbers two and three are Javonte Williams and (Bijan) Robinson.”

In Week 1, Johnson handled just 26% of the RB rushing attempts but 46% of the RB targets. His final line of 5/20/1 on the ground and 6/35 on seven targets gives a glimpse of his potential featured-role in this Chicago offense.

On paper, the Bears RB room is a muddled, three-way mess. I tabbed Johnson as my preferred dynasty option back in May while decoding this backfield. His dynasty ADP sits at RB38 and, at just 22-years old, that ranking is only going to climb.

Both D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert are replacement-level players. Neither possesses the talent of Johnson.

It could take a few weeks, and the rushing prowess of QB Justin Fields will always complicate things, but dynasty managers should be scooping up Johnson before the breakout game inevitably comes.

Nico Collins - WR, Houston

Every once in a while, I scour our incredible data-base of content at Fantasy Life and look for recurring themes, trends, and players.

Isn’t there a saying about two points being a line and three points being a trend?

Nico Collins is starting to become a trend.

Okay, okay, it’s been just one game, but hear me out.

I’m counting last season as one point, this preseason as another, and Week 1 as a third. That’s three points. Let me have some fun.

Aug 27, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) and tight end Dalton Keene (40) celebrates a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Collins showed up in our writings repeatedly this offseason. Here are just a few examples:

Last season, we saw the emergence begin.

This preseason, Dwain specifically noted, “In nine drives with C.J. Stroud, Collins has been the clear-cut No. 1 WR in Houston:

91% route participation
30% target share
34% air yards share”

There’s definitely a trend, and Collins only furthered his case in Week 1.

He led the team with 11 targets (26% target share), 80 receiving yards (33% yards share), 165 air yards, and 2.05 yards-per-route run.

As CJ Stroud gets more comfortable, the opportunities for Collins to produce for fantasy managers will only increase.

Sporting a dynasty ADP of WR51, and at just 24-years old, Collins is a perfect trade target for dynasty managers.

Act now before the fantasy points start piling up.

Trey McBride - TE, Arizona

A tradition unlike any other; fantasy managers desperately looking for the next breakout TE.

Unfortunately for us, Week 1 saw Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts score just 17.9 PPR combined.

Absolutely brutal.

Trey McBride, a second-year TE for the Cardinals, carries a dynasty ranking of TE22 but checks a lot of boxes I look for when chasing the elusive breakout.

He was the first TE drafted in 2022 (55th overall), won the 2021 Mackey Award, led all TEs with 1,121 receiving yards, and earned first-team All-American honors.

His 1,121 yards were the fourth-most by a tight end in a single season in the FBS since 1996.

McBride also made the most of his opportunity last season after Zach Ertz went down with an injury.

From Weeks 11 to 18, McBride saw his snap count jump up to 60 snaps per game compared to just 34 snaps per game in the first 10 weeks.

Over the second half of 2022, McBride posted modest per-game totals:

5.0 targets
3.5 receptions
33.4 receiving yards
7.7 PPR points

In Week 1, Ertz hauled in six of his 10 targets while McBride brought in both of his. Perhaps more importantly, 40% of the targets went to the TE position. We know this offense won’t be good, but volume is something we’ll take right now.

Ertz has two years remaining on his three-year / $31,650,000 contract, but Arizona has an out after this season.

If Ertz struggles with injury, we could see McBride start to take that coveted leap. The 23-year old is worth a stash on your dynasty bench while his price remains suppressed.

Elijah Moore - WR, Cleveland

It feels like a lifetime ago when then-rookie WR Elijah Moore went on a seven-week stretch in 2021 where he averaged:

8.1 targets
5.0 receptions
67.4 receiving yards
5 total TDs
17.6 PPG

Injuries derailed chunks of both his rookie and sophomore season. Now with Cleveland, it’s looking like Moore could become the player so many hoped he could be when he was drafted in the early second round.

His dynasty ranking has been quite the roller coaster ride in recent years. It got as high as WR15, but has been on a steady decline ever since.

Positional Rank

The Browns dominated the Bengals in Week 1 and Moore very much looked the part of a resurgent wideout.

His 24% target share tied fellow WR Amari Cooper for the team lead but Moore paced the group with a 28% receiving yard share.

If QB Deshaun Watson can return to form, the Watson/Moore stack could become quite potent in dynasty. Also, can you believe that Cooper is already 29-years old? It’s Moore time.

Moore’s dynasty ranking sits at WR39 and he’s still only 23-years old. He has the talent profile, draft capital, and situation to turn his career around and dynasty managers need to capitalize while there’s still time.

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Week 2 Dynasty Breakout Watch. Roschon Johnson looks like a steal.

Roschon Johnson - RB, Chicago

Nico Collins - WR, Houston

Trey McBride - TE, Arizona

Elijah Moore - WR, Cleveland

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