It’s almost Scott Fish Bowl SZN…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Plarium:

• The fruits of projection labor… TWO ADP STEALS!!!
• Optimal Roster Construction: How to Draft WRs
• Team Preview: SUPERCHARGED
• Updated rankings, you say!?!?
• It's 6/28. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…

Over the last three weeks, I have spent way too much time staring at a computer screen. It’s projections season. And in order to do it right, it takes a lot of digging to understand the context surrounding player performance.

Why did this player get better? Why did that player drop off?

Of course, some of these deep dives are just dead ends. In a sport like football, with so many variables — including a ball that can bounce in weird ways — variance is always a factor.

However, there are always things that I discover working through the process. Today, I want to share two of the takeaways that really stood out…

🔥 Don’t Quit Antonio Gibson

After the loss of J.D. McKissic in Week 8, Gibson saw his route participation surge to 57% before an injury in Week 16. During that stretch, Brian Robinson Jr. was the primary early-down runner, but Gibson still managed almost 30% of the carries.

The former college WR has always demonstrated exceptional target-earning ability, and the Commanders don’t have any passing-down competition. He was one of only five RBs to post a 24% target rate or higher with at least 200 routes in 2022.

Since 2011, we have seen several RBs with similar roles and abilities provide significant fantasy value.

• Alvin Kamara, 2020: RB1
• Austin Ekeler, 2019: RB4
• Kenyan Drake, 2018: RB14
• Dion Lewis, 2018: RB27
• Christian McCaffrey, 2017: RB9
• Danny Woodhead, 2015: RB3

Gibson isn’t likely to see 50% of the team’s rushing attempts, but neither did these players. The highest was Kamara at 40%. Instead, they delivered thanks to their average target rate of 25% and average route participation of 62%

With McKissic gone, the fourth-year back could finally be allowed to do what he does best — gobble up targets out of the backfield. Gibson is currently the RB34 on Underdog.

🎯 Tyler Higbee = THE Late-Round TE Target

Higbee had an 84% route participation before offensive line injuries caused him to spend more time staying in to block. After the casualties mounted, his route participation slipped to 63%.

His 24% target rate was borderline elite for the position, and he delivered a 28% target share in his six games with a route participation of over 80%. Four of those games were with Cooper Kupp.

The Rams didn’t invest much in their receiving corps for 2023, but they did add guard Steve Avila out of TCU with their first selection at pick 36. With a healthier unit and reinforcements, Higbee is my favorite to finish second on the team in targets.

You can snag Higbee as the 16th TE off the board on Underdog and land an option with a shot to perform as well as names like David Njoku and Evan Engram, who are going over 40 picks sooner.

For another late-round TE gem, be sure to read Ian’s Chargers’ preview below!!!

Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate. What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2? Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds? The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends. Luckily Dwain is here to break it all down…

WIDE RECEIVER

⚖️ Supply and Demand

Last year, we saw a WR craze take over on Underdog, and that momentum has carried through to the 2023 season.

Note: plus means earlier ADP (closer to pick one), and minus means later.

Not only are drafters willing to take the best WRs earlier, but they also remain steadfast by selecting later-round options sooner.

These trends can create significant roster construction challenges when we wait on WRs on Underdog for a couple of reasons:

It is hard to make up for the quality we miss out on at the top of drafts – Round 5 WRs today aren’t as good as the Round 5 WRs we drafted two years ago.

It is difficult to make up with quantity because drafters don’t quit clicking on the WRs.

📝 WR Strategy Overview

Preferably, we want to draft five WRs in the first nine rounds due to the supply and demand challenges AND the value we can pick up later at RB and TE.

However, going with four WRs in the first nine rounds is also an option because it allows us to try different types of builds.

For example, there are several high-end RB values in late Round 2 and early in Round 3 that offer more upside than their WR counterparts. We need some exposure to 2-RB builds with names like Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson.

When we end up light at the position in the early rounds, we don’t have substantial value pockets, but there are a few names we can get aggressive with to ensure we end up with one or two.

🏛 Building Pillars – Values

🎯 Christian Watson | Round 4

The second-year WR doesn’t have the same draft pedigree or rookie-season sample size as Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. However, once healthy and playing in a full-time role after Week 9, Watson was a SMASH. He delivered a 23% target share and an astounding 41% air yards share, averaging a WR1-worthy 17.2 points per game.

Jordan Love is likely a downgrade at QB, but it wasn’t Aaron Rodgers’ best season last year, and Watson was able to produce still. Watson’s ability to score from anywhere on the field and lack of significant target competition helps offset offensive environment concerns. He should go closer to Wilson and Olave, offering immense upside in Round 4.

Watson is my second-most drafted WR in the first four rounds of drafts, behind Amon-Ra St. Brown at 17%.

🎯 Diontae Johnson | Round 6

Johnson was unlucky in the TD department last year but remained a high-end target earner with a 25% share. That is a WR1-worthy mark based on data back to 2011.

Johnson scored five, seven, and eight TDs in his first three campaigns. Additionally, over the last 12 seasons, WRs between 130 and 170 targets have averaged 7.8 TDs per campaign. Johnson has 141, 166, and 139 targets in his last three seasons. The 27-year-old is a good bet to score five to six TDs this season, even if Kenny Pickett doesn’t make huge strides.

Johnson projects more like a Round 4 WR but goes two rounds later, making him a high-priority target in Round 6. I have him well ahead of ADP in my rankings, and he is my most-drafted player on Underdog after 111 drafts.

🎯 Nico Collins | Round 11

Collins took a step forward in 2022 by registering a WR3-worthy target share and a WR1-worthy air yards share. Even when Brandin Cooks was on the field, Collins was demanding looks.

Additionally, the Texans' WR room isn’t particularly strong, and the team upgraded their QB situation by drafting C.J. Stroud second overall in the NFL Draft.

When I leave the first nine rounds feeling weak at WR, I am willing to reach for Collins in Round 10 to ensure I get him. There aren’t many young WRs who have exhibited upside with a clear path to routes later in the draft due to supply and demand constraints, but Collins fits the bill.

📋 Draft Capital Guidelines

These are only guidelines, not hard and fast rules. The basic rule of thumb is to spend less later if you spend more early and vice versa. Everything works on a sliding scale.

Drafted WR5 or WR6 before Round 9

Draft like you nailed your selections – you have ground to make up at other positions.

This is probably an eight-max WR draft but could get to nine under the right circumstances.

Don’t take another WR in Rounds 9 to 12 – those rounds are the sweet spot for upside RBs and QB stacks.

If you missed TEs, don’t take the bait in Rounds 9 to 11, but Round 12 is okay if the value is right. If not, you can make up for it with volume later.

Drafted WR4 before Round 9

Ideally, you already have an elite QB and/or three strong RBs in this scenario because you will need to pass on value at one of those spots in Round 10 or 11 if you want access to upside options like Nico Collins and Jonathan Mingo.

BUT… don’t overdo it on WRs in Rounds 9 to 12 because the value isn’t strong; instead, be prepared to pile on more after and consider taking as many as 10.

Once again, you don’t have to detour for TEs unless you get a great value in Round 12. You can make up for it with volume later.

Get the complete WR strategy HERE!

🎩 How about that rushing upside? He must be a magician.

🧠 Imagine having to remember all of this. Lmao.

😢 Rest in peace, Ryan. Gone way too soon.

❓ Are late-round RBs really better bets than WR? Hmm.

📈 Dwain’s updated rankings are LIVE. Over 250 players!

💯 All Scott Hanson. All the time.

☀️ Celebrate Best Ball Summer. Ian & Jordan draft at 4pm ET.

📰 Beat report favorites. Which ones will be fantasy relevant?

🤓 This is a trade-off we often see in college. Now in the NFL?

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Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Chargers, who could boast one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL…

⚡️ TE: Gerald Everett (Ian’s TE11), Donald Parham (TE55)

The six-year veteran enjoyed career-best marks in targets (87), receptions (58) and receiving yards (555) alike in 2022, and that doesn’t even include his sterling 6-109-1 performance in the Chargers’ ill-fated Wild Card loss to the Jaguars.

It’s hard to overstate just how impressive that latter performance was. Everett demonstrated some truly ridiculous YAC ability on multiple occasions during the performance, looking like a juiced-up WR with the ball in his hands.

Yes, Everett benefited from both Allen and Williams missing time in 2022, although neither has exactly been a model of good health during their respective careers.

Also yes, Everett was regularly forced into playing a suboptimal part-time role in an offense that made sure to keep the likes of Parham, Stephen Anderson and/or Tre’ McKitty (meow) also involved under ex-OC Joe Lombardi.

One of the main knocks on Everett is seemingly in reference to the time that he was too tired to make a play on the football against the Chiefs, leading to a game-altering pick-six by Herbert. Remember:

This happened in Week 2 and didn’t impact Everett’s playing time for the rest of the season.

Everett was tired in the first place because he had just caught back-to-back passes for 33 yards to get the offense on the goal line in the first place.

The veteran TE literally asked for a breather before the play and shouldn’t have been leaned on in that position in the first place.

One single PPR point separated the TE9 and TE15 on a per-game basis last season; the TE2 landscape is generally a shit show, so don’t be afraid to wait on someone like Everett, who combines proven YAC goodness inside of one of the league’s best overall offensive environments.

My most-drafted TE of the offseason: Everett is a full-time role away from vying for weekly top-eight treatment at the position, and even without one, he’ll be tough to slide too far down the TE2 ranks thanks to his ability to provide true boom weeks inside of this loaded offense.

What about the rest of the Chargers’ offense?!

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