1.04 Draft Strategy for Fantasy Football 2025: Target CeeDee Lamb As Your Cornerstone
Chris Allen breaks down his ideal draft strategy from the 1.04 draft slot in 2025 fantasy football drafts.
As I get older, the need to warm up has become stronger.
I can’t just switch topics like I’m in my 20s. Whether it’s sports or video games, or even writing, I need to take a beat and think through my first move. Otherwise, I’ll move too quickly and (likely) hurt my back in the process.
Drafting from the 1.04 is like stretching before a run. You get time to acclimate to the draft room. Size up your competition. Maybe see who might be available after the first three selections. But even with fewer options available to you once you get on the clock, it doesn’t decrease your chances of building a championship roster.
The 1.04 Debate In Fantasy Football Drafts
Honestly, I think I was onto something in the intro.
I mean, definitely take part in razzing your leaguemates who pick before you. You didn’t want Ja’Marr Chase or Bijan Robinson anyway. The guy you’re going to take fourth overall is going to be the key to your success. And by fantasy football ADP, you’ve got two options.
On the one hand, I understand the concerns surrounding Justin Jefferson as a sure-fire option in the first round. Minnesota will be on its third QB in as many seasons. Their offseason actions point toward a team focused on running the ball. DC Brian Flores is still in charge of a unit that limited opposing offenses to the fifth-fewest PPG in ’24. However, despite all this, Jefferson has still been able to shine.
- Target Share: 29.8%, 2nd (out of 29 qualifiers – min. 20.0% target share)
- Yards per Route Run: 2.51, 2nd
- Air Yard Share: 37.5%, 9th
Sure, we don’t know what J.J. McCarthy will be. But HC Kevin O’Connell has structured offenses ranking 3rd, 6th, and 6th in pass rate over expectation. In other words, the volume will come. And Jefferson will capitalize on his opportunities. At the same time, if his systemic risk doesn’t appeal to you, the other NFC WR with a similar ADP should be right up your alley.
It’s easy to use the final image of Dallas, a loss to a Marcus Mariota-led Commanders’ offense, as a preview for 2025. We do the same copy/paste process for outlier performances. But it’s different for CeeDee Lamb.
First, Lamb wasn’t even on the field in Week 18. His shoulder injury kept him on the sidelines for the final two games. Neither was Dak Prescott. And while Lamb, like Jefferson, maintained a healthy workload as Cooper Rush piloted the Cowboys’ passing game, everything else crumbled around him.
- Passing Yards per Game: 254.1 (w/ Prescott), 203.2 (w/out Prescott)
- Passing Success Rate: 44.1%, 40.5%
- Points per Game: 20.5, 17.6
Fewer yards meant fewer trips to the red zone and fewer TDs for, well, everybody. But now, Prescott is back healthy. Dallas added a true outside threat in George Pickens. Lamb won’t be the focus of every defense. So let’s build around him.
- Multiverse 1: CeeDee Lamb, Robust RB
- Multiverse 2: Justin Jefferson, Hero RB
- Multiverse 3: CeeDee Lamb, Balanced
Since we’re starting with a WR in the first round, I wanted to see how each roster construction approach might affect each team. Sure, we had to consider the same things when drafting Ja’Marr Chase from the 1.01. But Jefferson and Lamb don’t (might not?) have the same ceiling as Chase. Either way, let’s apply some of the same draft tenets to flesh out the rest of the early rounds.
The Rest of the Early Rounds After Drafting From 1.04 in Fantasy Football
I have two loose goals for the first six rounds.
- Grab one QB or TE.
- Build starter power at the core positions.
The tough part is your position. Having the fourth-overall pick almost leaves you in a dead zone. It’s hard to leverage the turn with six picks before your next selection. Meanwhile, we still consider 1.04 an early slot. However, you can tilt the draft in your favor. I’ll use a simulated draft courtesy of our free Mock Draft Simulator in Draft Champion to explain.
I started to notice QBs slipping midway through the third round, but figured someone would break the seal before me. Instead, three more TEs went off the board. In normal situations, my priorities would be more reactive:
- Consider the last of the viable early-round TEs (i.e., Mark Andrews)
- Draft a WR
- Take a QB
It’s not wrong to see options at a specific position dry up, and the fear of missing out takes over. You had a dream. Your leaguemates are ruining it. I was in the same spot as I was gunning for a TE. However, since I didn’t have to wait until the very end of the fourth to make my selection, I could tilt things back in my favor.
Admittedly, I wanted Xavier Worthy (or insert the name of your favorite WR with the same ADP) at 45 overall. At the moment, I was reacting to the board and the deficiencies of my squad. Put another way, my Plan B is to build out my core starters. But in this case, I could do two things at once.
I noticed nobody else had taken a QB. Plus, the three teams drafting after me already had two or three WRs. I could bank on missing out on a few receivers while tacking on an elite QB. As a result, I got the best of both worlds.
Through six rounds, the Robust RB squad has the makings of a contender. I’ll need some luck at WR, but RB and QB are easy starts with plenty of options to fill the TE slot in the mid rounds. We’ll come back to that one in a bit, but let’s check in on the other two teams.
Mid-Round Approach From The 1.04 In Fantasy Football Drafts
The Hero RB roster was simple to build. However, when assessing the team, I found a few holes.
- Strong RB2 or two RB3s with upside
- A TE
- Consider a second QB or streaming options
To sum up that first bullet, I’ve got a Josh Jacobs problem. I realize he earned 301 carries in 2024. He was the RB6 in PPR leagues. But he also scored 15 TDs on the ground. That worked out to be 30.7% of his total fantasy points. And while it sounds like I’m knocking a guy who found the end zone a lot, I’m actually highlighting how reliant he was on his ground game with so little passing volume.
- Target Share: 12th (out of 16 qualifying RBs – min. 50.0% team rushing rate)
- Route Rate: 11th
- Targets per Route Run: 10th
At the same time, Jacobs was at or slightly below average in multiple rushing metrics. Out of the 16 RBs with more than 50.0% of their team’s carries, Jacobs ranked 10th in rushing success rate. I’m harping on this stat as it has a strong connection to generating fantasy points.
Success rate eliminates the “extra credit” of generating explosive plays. Jacobs wasn’t outstanding in this area either (8.1% explosive play rate, 10th out of 16 RBs). So, yet again, we’re relying on him to waltz into the end zone another 15 times. However, he’s on the same team that just invested first-round draft capital into a WR and has raved about their YAC-monster TE. Simply put, Jacobs, without a strong receiving profile, doesn’t fit the mold for a Hero RB build. My solution was multi-pronged.
- Isiah Pacheco: Entrenched starter on an efficient team with pass-catching upside.
- Tyjae Spears: Small week-to-week viability; upside if starter goes down.
- Najee Harris: Projects for short-yardage touches in a run-oriented offense.
Between those four, I could cobble together enough top-24 weeks at RB to keep me in contention. I’d have to tack on another dart in the late rounds (think Ray Davis, Tahj Brooks, etc.). Either way, by addressing the RB through volume, the outlook of my team didn’t hinge on the strength of my WRs.
The Balanced team wins. A Lamb-Thomas-Brown open is potent. For now, I’ll assume having Terry McLaurin as my WR3 isn’t an issue. But before you critique, remove the names. Instead of McLaurin, I could’ve taken Davante Adams. Swap Bo Nix for Baker Mayfield. You can make small tweaks within positions to get the team you’d like more. However, the process should remain the same for you to construct a strong roster from the 1.04.
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