In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity, we're looking at 15 stats to know for the Week 4 slate.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Xfinity:
Staring blankly into the endless void of my NFL spreadsheets, looking for ways to make these intros fresh and fun—suddenly it hit me like a ton of Excel bricks.
Who runs across more cool stats that never get shared than me? It felt like time to change all that … so here are 15 stats to know for Week 4:
In just one game under center for Kevin O’Connell, the newest Viking QB Carson Wentz trails only Lamar Jackson in EPA/attempt (+0.60) and passer rating (129.8). Are J.J. McCarthy truthers worried?
Not a single RB with 30+ attempts averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry … except for the Bengals’ Chase Brown. He’s down at 2.0—yikes. How long until Tahj Brooks’ number gets called?
Patrick Mahomes boasts a 16.0% scramble rate, higher than Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen … and everyone else for that matter. (whispers) He’s #1. Is Mahomes the new dual-threat QB?
No TE over 95 routes run earned fewer than 17 targets in 2025—with the exception of Tampa’s Cade Otton, stuck at seven. Positive regression incoming?
Seven quarterbacks rushed for more than 30 yards a game last season—that number’s already up to 12, with three more over 25. A new age may be upon us.
Considering all the offseason shenanigans, Quinshon Judkins may have less professional experience than anyone in the NFL—yet his league-leading 62.7% touch per snap rate mirrors that of proven veterans. That’s RB1 frequency.
Despite running the 25th most routes, Kansas City’s Tyquan Thornton racked up more air yards per game (151) than anyone besides Malik Nabers (177). Will it last as the Chiefs’ weapons return?
Dallas’ Javonte Williams earned more targets (15) through three weeks than Tony Pollard (6) and Travis Etienne (8) combined. What?!? Are you kidding me?
Only two quarterbacks (Will Levis, Caleb Williams) took sacks at a double-digit rate in 2024—that’s now quadrupled year-over-year thus far. Those are drive killers that will impact league-wide scoring.
Quentin Johnston’s four red zone targets amount to more than Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Calvin Ridley and Tyreek Hill all put together. Oh, fantasy football.
No team outside the New York American Football Giants has allowed more than 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards per game to slot WRs. Makes for a spot to target with FLEX adds as byes approach.
Three RBs tie for second place with two slot receptions (De'Von Achane, Bijan Robinson, Javonte Williams) behind Christian McCaffrey … who’s got six. Wow! Guy’s a fantasy gold mine.
Only three TEs command over 20% of team targets and team air yards: Trey McBride, Hunter Henry and Juwan Johnson. Didn’t see the last two coming, did you?
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For most of Thursday Night Football, the Seattle defense was suffocating the Cardinals, holding the Redbirds without a touchdown until over nine minutes had passed in the fourth quarter. That’s when Marvin Harrison Jr. high-pointed a pass from Kyler Murray in the end to cut the deficit to 20-13. Murray would throw another TD to Emari Demercado with 33 seconds remaining to tie the game. But the Seahawks marched down and set up Josh Myers for a 52-yard field goal as time expired for a 23-20 win.
Sam Darnold passed for 242 yards and a score. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 4 balls for 79 yards. Kenneth Walker IIl led the Seahawks with 110 scrimmage yards. Here’s more that happened:
We’re close to the quarter mark of the season. This is just another reminder of how fast the NFL season flies by. Hopefully, you are enjoying your fantasy season. If there is anything that you should take away from this column, it is never to be afraid to be bold.
Keep in mind that you should not take our “Bold Start 'Em, Sit 'Em” as the place to start, but more as the place to land for a start and a place to give further examination for a sit. They are bold for a reason, but they are always backed by logic and explanation …
START: Nick Chubb, RB, HOU vs Tennessee Titans
Few players in the game today come across as more infectiously likable than the Texans Nick Chubb. Once widely recognized among the NFL’s very best pure runners, the former 35th-overall pick posted insane underlying metrics through his first +500 carries—0.03 EPA/attempt, 5.3 yards/rush, 3.8 yards after contact/carry, 12.7% explosive rush rate, 102.7 scrimmage yards/game. Even a piece of that production would feed families right now.
Fast forward to 2025, where a free agent departure plus a handful of serious injuries leaves fantasy gamers wondering just what grade of octane’s fueling Chubb’s tank. If your instinct’s to answer that query with this year’s data (-0.04 EPA/attempt, 4.1 yards/attempt, 2.1 yards after contact/carry, 5.9% explosive rush rate)—well, as my daughter would say, that ain’t it, Chief. The bear case rests right on the surface.
Turn your attention instead to Chubb’s matchups in both directions. The Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars represent a good chunk of the toughest run-stopping units in the league, combining to allow a measly 3.8 yards per rush and just a single +20-yard carry in 36 quarters of play. I’d argue that trio of defenses might make a lot of RBs look old.
Now it’s stoppable force meets movable object, as Houston sets up to face a Titans squad in full tailspin—only the Ravens and Bengals allowed more fantasy points to RBs in 2025. As a touchdown underdog, Tennessee should do its part in keeping the game script positive long enough for the Texans’ backfield to finally produce. I hope.
Queue up Nick Chubb’s first RB1 finish of 2025 with a similar deep-league boost for Woody Marks into flexworthy territory on Sunday.
GEOFF ULRICH: I won’t pretend that I was a fan of the Raiders taking Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 overall in the draft. They needed help elsewhere, but especially on the O-Line, where they’ve been a mess to date and rank dead last (32/32) in Run Block Win Rate (viaESPN Analytics).
The poor O-Line has, unshockingly, hurt Jeanty, who has averaged just 3.1 YPC to date and has yet to break a run of longer than 18 yards. For fantasy purposes, he’s now down to RB33 in terms of year-to-date scoring. Gross.
Still, if you’re thinking of benching him for his poor start, I’d recommend some patience because the matchup in Week 4 vs. the Bears is as pristine as it gets for a bell cow back.
Through three weeks, Chicago ranks the following defensively against the rush (viaRBSDM.com):
EPA per play vs the rush: 23rd/32 (-0.028)
Success Rate vs the rush: 28th/32 (46.2%)
FP allowed to opposing RBs: 29th/32 (26.5 FP per game)
Even last week, in a poor game script, the Cowboys RB tandem of Javonte Williams and a semi-washed Miles Sanders went for 117 yards on the ground (6.15 YPC) vs the Bears.
If you took Jeanty early and have been struggling, you owe it to yourself to get him in the lineup this week. If he goes off, you can still trade him next week, with his value higher, and if he somehow busts in this A+ spot, well … at least you can go to sleep Sunday night knowing you tried.
Prediction: Jeanty goes for 100+ yards rushing, averages over 5.0 YPC and scores a TD (and you still sleep well). — Ulrich
