Last week, I wrote a piece on the five season-long fantasy football projections that surprise me the most. Naturally, I'm now writing a piece on the six projections that my gut most agrees with.

Why five projections for one piece and six in another?

In the words of Nate Bargatze's George Washington: “Nobody knows.”

By the way, our 2025 fantasy football projections, as well as our 2025 fantasy football rankings (applicable for best ball, redraft, and Guillotine Leagues), are available via our FantasyLife+ package. Check it out.

Anyway, here are the six projections my gut agrees with the most, ordered by Underdog ADP (as of Sun., 6/22, via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool). 

All fantasy points are half PPR.

Fantasy Football Projections For 2025 That My Gut Agrees With

RB Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

• ADP: RB4 (8.2 overall)
• Projection: RB2 (247.5 points)

On the one hand, a big part of me wants to project Christian McCaffrey as if he's the No. 1 RB.

In 2023, he had a position-high 9.5 Utilization Score (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). When healthy, McCaffrey has an elite ceiling/floor combo that other players simply have no access to—and all reports indicate that he's healthy now after an injury-plagued 2024 campaign.

On the other hand, McCaffrey is 29 years old, and it would feel borderline irresponsible to project someone his age as the No. 1 RB.

So I've "compromised" with myself and projected him as the No. 2 RB.

That feels reasonable and right.

RB Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

• ADP: RB8 (20.8)
• Projection: RB13 (201.3)

Jonathan Taylor enjoyed a bounceback season in 2024 with 1,567 yards and 12 TDs from scrimmage in 14 games, but his ADP feels high given that …

• He has additional backfield competition from Khalil Herbert and DJ Giddens.
• The team lost C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries in free agency.
• QB Daniel Jones might be a downgrade from departed QB Joe Flacco.

Plus, Taylor has averaged just 2.3 targets per game with offensive HC Shane Steichen. 

For a two-down player on a team slated for just 7.5 wins in the betting market (DraftKings), Taylor should be projected (just) outside the top 12 at his position.

WR Garrett Wilson (Jets)

• ADP: WR14 (26.2)
• Projection: WR32 (161.3)

I guess I'm planting a flag on this projection. 

Wilson is one of just 10 NFL players to start his career with three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, and he's done that while getting most of his targets from QBs Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, and Chris Streveler. He's undoubtedly talented.

And he played with new QB Justin Fields in college, so they theoretically already have an established connection.

I don't think Wilson will have a terrible year.

But it's hard to project him anywhere close to his ADP.

You can make the case that Fields is coming off his best season as a passer (7.2 AY/A), but it's also a year in which he started just six games and got benched. And now he's on his third team, playcaller, and head coach in three years … and OC Tanner Engstrand has never called plays before in the NFL, and defensive HC Aaron Glenn has never been the top coach at any level of football.

And then you add in the fact that Fields is a big-time runner.

With all that together, I have the Jets projected for a league-low 459 pass attempts, which will impact the raw number of targets (and thus receptions and yards) Wilson will get.

I hate to say it, but Wilson is one of the 32 players I'm fading this year.

WR Davante Adams (Rams)

• ADP: WR19 (31.1)
• Projection: WR12 (204.5)

Davante Adams turns 33 years old in December, so it might seem reckless to project him as a top-12 positional player, especially when he's on his third team in less than 12 months.

But great players can extend their careers longer than the average "good" player can, and Adams is a great WR.

His efficiency has declined since he left the Packers (9.2 yards per target in 2020-21, 7.5 in 2022-24). Adams is no longer a first-team All-Pro.

Still, he has 3,723 yards and 30 TDs receiving on 10.3 targets per game over the past three years. He's still an alpha.

And most importantly, he has a strong passer in QB Matthew Stafford and an elite playcaller in HC Sean McVay, who have proven themselves capable in the past of supporting two high-end pass catchers.

Even though Adams will now almost certainly be behind WR Puka Nacua in target priority, he's still a No. 1 WR in fantasy.

Adams is one of the 32 players I most want to draft this year.

QB Jared Goff (Lions)

• ADP: QB14 (117.3)
• Projection: QB10 (298.6)

Gone is OC Ben Johnson—Ben Goneson, as it were—but the Lions still have WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta, and RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Jared Goff enters the season with probably the league's best supporting cohort of skill-position players.

Gone is C Frank Ragnow—Frank Ragnot, as it were—but the team just drafted Tate Ratledge in Round 2, and he should be able to replace Ragnow on the interior of the offensive line, whether he starts at C or lands at RG and allows Graham Glasgow to shift over to the pivot. The Lions should still have one of the league's best OLs.

For his career, Goff has a 7.6 AY/A. With the Lions, a 7.8 AY/A. And over the past three years, an 8.2.

Goff offers nothing as a runner, but as a passer, he has an underappreciated ceiling/floor combo. With his throwing ability and all the players around him, Goff should project as a low-end No. 1 QB.

TE David Njoku (Browns)

• ADP: TE11 (128.5)
• Projection: TE3 (163.8)

As I noted in my recent piece on fantasy football ADP values, David Njoku has been a borderline-elite producer over the past two seasons … at least when starting QB Deshaun Watson (Achilles) has been out. 

Without Watson, the dynamic Njoku has 107-1,085-9 receiving on 167 targets in 18 games (including playoffs).

Watson almost certainly will never play for the Browns again, and the team has vast uncertainty at the WR position behind Jerry Jeudy, so Njoku once again projects to be the team's No. 2 receiver—and (as I mentioned in my piece on surprise 2025 projections) I expect the Browns (with two-time COTY HC Kevin Stefanski) to run a lot of plays from a trailing (and thus pass-leaning) game script, which means enhanced usage for Njoku.

Additionally, Njoku is reunited with QB Joe Flacco, who relied regularly on him in his abbreviated 2023 CPOY stint. In their six previous games together, Njoku had 37-483-4 receiving on 56 targets and a position-best 9.5 Utilization Score.

It's admittedly aggressive to project Njoku as a top-three TE, but if he can approach the non-Watson usage he's had over the past two seasons, then that mark is well within his range of outcomes.

Premium

Go FantasyLife+

Your league is unique. Your advice should be too. Get personalized tools, rankings, and projections tailored to your fantasy football league settings.

Learn More