Oh boy, are you guys in for a fantastic treat or what? 

My computer is on the fritz, which means I can't open any of my crazy Excel spreadsheets or data tools for this exercise. Every time I try that, my machine crashes. After hours of trying to troubleshoot with the help of ChatGPT, I am throwing in the towel. So two things are happening:

1. A new computer is on the way, so I can get back to nerding out.
2. Y'all get a vibes-based sleeper column.

When I say vibes-based, it doesn't mean my data process won't still be driving the ship. It means that I am not going to talk in super technical or data terms. But all of that is already baked in. My process is behind the players I have gravitated toward most often after pick 100 in fantasy drafts.

Let's get one thing straight. When I target sleepers, I am looking for players who could provide astronomical returns. That means rookies and young players will often be at the heart of our conversation.

Fantasy Football 2025 Sleepers To Target

1. Emeka Egbuka | WR | Buccaneers

• Consensus ADP: 116
• Exposure: 27%

Yes, I was already drafting Emeka Egbuka while everyone else was crying about target competition and how that doused the fire of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rome Odunze in their rookie seasons. Why?

1. Talent: Egbuka earned targets at an early age against multiple Round 1 and future Round 1 NFL Draft picks.
2. Mike Evans is entering his 12th season in the NFL. Things can change fast in that range: See my write-up on Davante Adams in my WR Tiers article.
3. Chris Godwin still isn't practicing due to an ankle injury.
4. If everyone is healthy and still looking spry, the Buccaneers should have one of the better passing attacks in the league.

Egbuka is going later than Odunze and JSN in their rookie seasons, and honestly has more outs. But, Dwain! What if he suffers the same fate as JSN and Odunze!?!?

Who cares!!! He is a Round 9 pick. We want players who can bend the trajectory of our season toward a championship banner. Picking high-talented players and letting the chips fall where they may. That's just my game.

Egbuka is my third-most drafted WR. Tombstone is my most-watched movie of all time. Why not give it a watch and draft Egbuka tonight?

2. Matthew Golden | WR | Packers

• Consensus ADP: 103
• Exposure: 27%

Golden comes at a slightly higher price than Egbuka, but you still get to buy a Round 1 NFL draft pick after selection 100. While I don't think Golden is a fantastic prospect for a first-round pick, the Packers' depth chart lacks a leader. 

The naysayers will point toward his lack of targets in college, but he still graded out in a good range of the Rookie Super Model (81 rating on a scale of 50 to 100). Almost half of Golden's comps notched a top-24 finish by Year 3. I think he will get his opportunity to take over a full-time role immediately, and am fading the old Packers will "spread-it-around" narrative.

Could that happen? Absolutely. But it doesn't matter where you get to draft Golden. If you want to follow a narrative, why not just follow the draft capital? When an NFL team invests a first-round pick in someone, they want that player to succeed. Preferably, immediately. That means Golden just has to do his part.

Remember last year when you could get Ladd McConkey in this range of drafts? Well, Ladd McConkey was one of Golden's top comparisons in the Rookie Super Model. No guarantees here, guys—Ja'Lynn Polk was another. But that's OK given the price! You can cut the guy after a couple of weeks if his underlying utilization isn't encouraging.

Bonus: Jayden Reed (15%) and Tucker Kraft are also targets (9%) 

3. Tyler Warren | TE | Colts

• Consensus ADP: 118
• Exposure: 27%

Let's run our lines together for this one.

You: I don't know Dwain. Anthony Richardson sucks, this team loves to run the ball, and the target competition is pretty stiff.

Me: Those things are all true, and reasons why we get to draft Tyler Warren after pick 100. Remember last year when Brock Bowers would never be a success as a rookie because he played with Davante Adams and bad quarterbacks?

You: Well, he got lucky when Davante Adams left.

Me: First, he wasn't too bad with Adams, averaging 12.6 PPG. Second, that is the beauty of betting on talent. Once the season starts, chaos ensues. Who knows how healthy the Colts' receiving corps will be? Keep in mind, none of them are Adams caliber! Finally, this scheme is tailor-made for Warren.

You: Sigh …

Me (again, before you can say anything): Also, who cares if he busts? The point is to take a swing at a player that can provide a massive payout if things work in their favor. We can cut him if he misses and grab a player similar to the replacement-level player you are considering at this pick! (You can tell this part was custom-made for me by how many words I am saying in this scene.)

Ron Burgundy (Anchorman) put it best.

Bonus: My exposure to Colston Loveland isn't as high (11%), but all the same logic applies. Loveland is a fantastic upside target at low cost (Consensus ADP: 124). When I wait at TE, I want one of these Round 1 guys on my bench if nothing else.

4. Dylan Sampson | RB | Browns

• Consensus ADP: 156
• Exposure: 25%

For a Round 13 pick, you can secure a rookie back who might lead the Browns' rushing attack in Week 1. Sampson is the youngest back in this strong rookie class. While he wasn't a huge producer in college, his film grades in the Rookie Super Model were high.

• Lance Zierlein: 6.33 (eventually a plus starter)
• PFF Career Composite Grade: 79.4 (69th percentile)

Sampson has an incredible feel for the RB position. Zierlein notes his "feel for timing, spacing, and blocking" as strengths, along with a nose for the end zone despite weighing 200 pounds. Zierlein's comp is Brian Westbrook, which is high praise. Sam Monson, on Check The Mic with Steve Palazzolo, describes Sampson as the best back in the class behind Jeanty when it comes to stringing together moves.

The Rookie Super Model rating (69) also accounts for production (after accounting for schedule, teammate competition, and age) and speed.

Over half of his comps collected a top-36 finish within their first three seasons, with one in five reaching the top-12. Historically, we have seen a wide range of outcomes on players who graded out so highly in the film department (85) with a production rating below 70. But here are some names that had a similar difference in their production vs. film rating:

• D'Andre Swift
• Javonte Williams
• Derrius Guice
• Alvin Kamara

Sampson is going to get an opportunity to show his stuff early, and the Quinshon Judkins saga has a LONG way to go. Even if the team comes to terms with Judkins, a suspension is on deck. There is a better than 0% chance that Judkins doesn't play football in 2025. If he does return around midseason, Sampson could already be cemented into a significant role.

I don't mind mixing in some Jerome Ford (5%). He has some dual-threat skills as well, and we can never be sure how these things will go. Still, if I get to put my chip down on one guy who might surprise as a top-12 option, give me Sampson.

5. Tyjae Spears | RB | Titans

• Consensus ADP: 123
• Exposure: 25%

Spears averaged 20.7 PPG from Week 15 to Week 17 as the starter for the Titans. Over that span, he posted a 14% target share. 

Want more cool tools and data like this? Use Code: Dwain to get 20% off a Fantasy Life+ subscription.

Spears delivered an 11% explosive rush rate on the season despite battling injuries. The year before, he hit 13%. So, we have a back who can work across all three downs and hit the long ball.

There is a broader range of outcomes for the Titans' RB touches than most projections portray. The coaching staff hinted at a 1A/1B split between Spears and Tony Pollard last preseason, but both backs were rarely healthy together. We could see that come to fruition in 2025, and might be Spears in the 1A seat over Pollard.

If Pollard were to miss time, Spears offers massive contingency value, as we saw at the end of 2024.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jayden Higgins | WR | Texans: 126 ADP, 20% exposure
• Jaydon Blue | RB | Cowboys: 136 ADP, 18% exposure
• Trevor Lawrence | QB | Jaguars: 141 ADP, 18% exposure
• Cedric Tillman | WR | Browns: 161 ADP, 20% exposure
• Jaylen Wright | RB | Dolphins: 157 ADP, 24% exposure

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