When I used to lead product and analytics teams, I would ask a team member pitching a new product feature or data idea, "So what, who cares?" The newbies would look at me with a puzzled look on their face (some of you might be thinking I am a real jerk right about now).

For the record, I was always nice when asking this question, but my point was a simple one. I wanted them to consider why people should care about the data or feature they wanted to add to the product roadmap. Was it rooted in good analysis, and would it help a user accomplish their goals? 

If so, great, let's do it! If not, it went onto the interesting but irrelevant scrap heap. That last part might sound harsh, but the reality is that many ideas and data points are interesting but don't help us achieve our goals. That doesn't mean we can't discuss them, but they shouldn't be at the heart of our decision-making process.

In fantasy football, our goal is to win. To achieve this, we need to target the right players. To put it even more clearly, we need to target the right *types of players*. I have dedicated thousands of hours researching which data points matter for future fantasy performance.

That doesn't mean I will get everything right. There will be misses. Football is a cruel game played with an elongated sphere that can bounce in the most unpredictable ways. The critical thing to remember is that we are playing a game of probabilities. 

If we can get more things right than wrong, we have a great chance of beating our opponents. The best way for me to do that is by following the data.

• QB Tiers
• RB Tiers
• TE Tiers

One final thought before we move forward: It is a great time to be a consumer of content in the fantasy football space. We have some of the brightest minds in the industry's history using a data-driven methodology to deliver league-winning insights. It's a really cool thing.

Speaking of methodology …

REMINDER: You can access all the tools in the Utilization Report, my rankings, projections, and more with a FantasyLife+ subscription. Use code DWAIN for 20% off.

Methodology For Establishing My Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers

This article will group players into tiers based on the following data criteria.

• Fantasy points: PPR points per game
• Talent profile: Target share, yards per route run (YPRR), air yards share
• Experience: Years in league
• Passing offense quality: Fantasy Life projections
• Target competition: Teammate target-earning history and projections
• Consensus average draft position (ADP): ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, CBS, RTSports, Underdog

Fantasy points per game and talent profile

I love advanced data, but fantasy points per game are still the gold standard for predicting future fantasy production. However, we can gain a superior understanding of talent by going one level deeper.

For the record, I tested everything I could find, including all the ESPN Receiver Tracking Metrics, man and zone coverage data. While many data points were interesting and provided additional context, these were the strongest.

So what does a WR1, WR2, or WR3 look like?

Experience

As players age, our data's year-over-year correlation decays. By comparing a WR's best three-year stretch (prime production) versus experience buckets, we can see when WRs are at their max powers and fall off.

As you can see, most WRs break out over their first five seasons. For a full understanding of the things we are looking for in breakouts, we have you fully covered with a three-part series:

• The Process: How to identify breakouts
• Year 2 and 3 Breakout Candidates
• Late Breakout Candidates

Passing offense quality and target competition

The final step is to assess a player's environment. Even good WRs have struggled to put up elite numbers in bad offenses.

Since WRs are part of the equation, some chicken-or-the-egg stuff is happening. We account for that in the Fantasy Life projections when forecasting team passing yards, which is the source for passing offense quality.

From a target competition standpoint, we prefer teams with fewer mouths to feed, and having an offensive coordinator willing to push the cheat code buttons is a bonus.

Player average draft position (ADP)

Never before have we had such robust market data. Thanks to the explosion of this game we love (especially best ball), thousands of real-money drafts have already taken place for the 2025 season. We must leverage consensus ADP data.

While one of the goals of the tiers is to unearth mispriced players, I want to challenge myself when takes don't align with the market (ADP). It represents something much larger and infinitely more intelligent than one person. You should be highly skeptical if you see an analyst (including me) repeatedly pounding the table for a player moving in the opposite direction of their ADP.

In "The Logic of Sports Betting," Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow had this to say:

"Market resistance is a massive red flag that you're missing something, and the best thing you can do is stop betting into the resistance and instead try to figure out what you may have gotten wrong."

Note: Consensus fantasy football ADP is an average of ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, RTSports, and Underdog.

Enough methodology talk. Let's talk tiers.

Ranking and Tiering The Wide Receivers For Fantasy Football 2025

As I've done in each of the previous three tiers pieces, the table below will show my nine total tiers and wide receiver rankings. See below the table for player-by-player analysis of my first six tiers.

Tier 1: Proven WR1 Alphas in Their Prime

Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals

• Consensus ADP: 1.6 (Round 1)

Chase has delivered 20.1, 16.4, and 23.7 PPG, and nearly all of his underlying data points scream WR1. He plays in a pass-heavy offense with one of the best young QBs in the NFL. Joe Burrow projects for the most passing yards and TDs in the NFL.

He does have decent target competition from Tee Higgins, but Chase ripped opponents for 24.7 PPG in games with Higgins in 2024. Without a high-end third target-earner, this is a highly consolidated offense.

Chase is the 1.01 in the 2025 drafts.

CeDee Lamb | Cowboys

• Consensus ADP: 7.1 (Round 1)

Lamb's PPG fell from 23.7 to 17.6. But Dak Prescott played only seven full games. In Prescott's last two healthy seasons, he compiled 266 (2023) and 278 (2021) yards per game. The Cowboys project for the fourth-most passing yards in our projection model.

Lamb grades out highly across all of the most important data points beyond fantasy points, AND he gets work in the run game. The sixth-year WR averages almost one attempt and five yards per game as a rusher over the last two seasons.

George Pickens adds target competition. But this is a pass-first attack that moves Lamb all over the formation. He operated from the slot 55% of pass plays over the last two years. 

Lamb is my WR2. He is a top-half of he first-round pick, and a top-three option in PPR formats that start three receivers.

Puka Nacua | Rams

• Consensus ADP: 10.7 (Round 1)

Nacua delivered 18.4 and 17.9 PPG in his first two seasons, including the playoffs. If you only include his healthy games in a full-time role, he averaged 20.4 last year. He is a first-down (38%), target (30%), and YPRR (2.56) machine.

The addition of Davante Adams raises some concerns about target competition, but the Rams don't have a high-target-earning No. 3 option. Similar to Nacua's days with Cooper Kupp, expect most of the attack to flow through two players. Nacua and Kupp combined for a 54% target when on the field together in 2023 and 2024.

Nacua has a high-end WR1-worthy profile and gets a slight bump ahead of Justin Jefferson, who is week-to-week with a hamstring injury.

Justin Jefferson | Vikings

• Consensus ADP: 10.7 (Round 1)

News flash: Jefferson is a fantastic football player. He has compiled 21.0, 20.4, and 18.2 PPG over the last three seasons. All of his underlying data points support the idea that he is an alpha in his prime.

J.J. McCarthy is an unknown, but Kevin O'Connell resurrected Sam Darnold's career to the tune of 254 yards and 2.1 passing TDs per game. I have the Vikings running the ball slightly more this season as McCarthy eases in, but O'Connell is known for his pass-first approach (+3.4% dropback rate over expectation).

Jefferson is a high-end WR1; we just need to monitor the hamstring injury (week-to-week).

Nico Collins | Texans

• Consensus ADP: 14.8 (Round 2)

Collins notched 17.2 and 17.8 PPG over the last two campaigns. He checks WR1 marks across the board. He leads all WRs with at least 500 routes with a 3.00 YPRR. That is Julio Jones territory, y'all.

The Texans lost Stefon Diggs but added Jayden Higgins (Round 2 of the draft) and Christian Kirk (free agency) to compete for looks. Collins should dominate this attack, and if C.J. Stroud looks more like his rookie season, the fifth-year WR could be the No. 1 in fantasy.

Collins is a Tier 1 alpha WR who could finish as the WR1 overall—he shouldn't be sliding into Round 2 of drafts.

Malik Nabers | Giants

• Consensus ADP: 12.1 (Round 1)

Let's keep this one simple. Here is a list of the WRs to reach 17 fantasy points per game as a rookie since 2000 (minimum eight games) and what they did the next two years:

• Odell Beckham Jr: 24.6 → 21.3, 18.5
• Ja'Marr Chase: 18.0 → 20.1, 16.4 (Burrow injured)
• Anquan Boldin: 17.7 → 12.3, 20.8
• Puka Nacua: 18.4 → 17.9
• Justin Jefferson: 17.1 → 19.5, 21.0
• Michael Thomas: 17.1 → 16.2, 24.3

Not too shabby, y'all.

You won't find a player in the tier tables with darker blue marks in targets first-down share (37%), target share (35%), and air yards (46%).

Russell Wilson takes over as the starting quarterback, which isn't ideal. Still, Nabers went off with Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Drew Lock.

Originally, Nabers was in Tier 2. But after digging deeper, there was no way to keep him out of Tier 1. He checks every box, and his historical comps were amazing.

Tier 2: Ascending WR1 Talents and Alphas With Questions

Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions

• Consensus ADP: 11.1 (Round 1)

St. Brown is a proven commodity who has 16.7, 20.4, and 18.9 PPG campaigns over the last three seasons. The Lions' offense is more crowded with Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta challenging for targets. If either of those players takes a significant step forward, it could hinder St. Brown.

While I believe in the Jims and Joes over the X's and O's, we don't know if the loss of Ben Johnson will have an impact. St. Brown operated from the slot on 55% of routes and was in motion 17% over the last two seasons.

The Lions' offense overall is due for some passing regression after Jared Goff hit multiple career marks, but they still project as one of the top passing units.

St. Brown is a solid late Round 1 selection, but comes with a couple of questions we didn't have last year.

Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars

• Consensus ADP: 16.3 (Round 2)

Thomas is deserving of this tier without any additional context, but I will go ahead and provide some. He didn't take over a full-time role until Week 9, but dealt with a shoulder injury. Once healthy, he took his game to a new level. From Week 13 to 18, with Christian Kirk sidelined, Thomas went bonkers.

With Kirk and Evan Engram gone, expect a highly consolidated attack that flows through Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter. Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence have a fantastic duo to scheme in a variety of ways.

If you were to ask me which Round 2 WR has the best chance of finishing WR1 overall, I would say Thomas.

Thomas is good enough to go in Round 1 of drafts and is a SMASH pick in Round 2.

Drake London | Falcons

• Consensus ADP: 21.2 (Round 2)

London always had the underlying data that screamed WR1 potential (London is an excellent example of why that stuff is helpful), but was derailed by terrible quarterback play over his first two seasons. In Year 3, that all changed with a 16.5 PPG campaign.

He is a target magnet (29%) and first-down monster (34%). Those numbers, combined with his 29% air yards share, tell us he is more of a possession archetype. That isn't a bad thing—Michael Thomas, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald were similar players—he just offers slightly less big-play upside than guys like Thomas.

Over his final three games with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback (small sample alert), we saw a QB willing to pepper his big-bodied WR. Over that span, London had a 99 (out of 100) Utilization Score, averaging 23.1 PPG with a 39% target share.

London is a low-end WR1. But Penix could unlock another level in London's game thanks to his willingness and arm strength to push the ball into tight spaces.

Ladd McConkey | Chargers

• Consensus ADP: 21.2 (Round 2)

From Week 7 through the Wild Card game, McConkey earned WR1 playing time with a 90% route participation. Over that span, he averaged 18.4 PPG.

The Chargers added Tre Harris (Round 2) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Round 5) to challenge Quentin Johnston for reps, but McConkey is the clear-cut favorite to lead the Chargers in targets in 2025.

Playing with one of the best signal callers in the league, McConkey offers a similar profile to Amon-Ra St. Brown. He is great in the short and intermediate game, but also provides the ability to win deep occasionally. Three of his eight TDs came from 40-plus yards.

McConkey is a low-end WR1 and is a PRIORITY TARGET in the middle of Round 2.

A.J. Brown | Eagles

• Consensus ADP: 20.6 (Round 2)

Brown has the skillset of the Tier 1 WRs. He just plays in a run-oriented offense with two other talented pass catchers. Despite the presence of DeVonta Smith—who would be a WR1 on many teams—Brown still garnered a 33% target share. He accounted for 40% of the first downs and notched a 2.99 YPRR.

I know. I know. You can see all that in the chart above. But it bears repeating. That is impressive stuff. If the Eagles' offense looks more like the 2022 or 2023 version when Hurts averaged 227 and 247 passing yards, Brown could spike a massive rebound season. He averaged 17.1 and 17.2 PPG in those campaigns. But honestly, he has the goods to collect a 20-plus PPG season if variance works in his favor.

Brown is a high-end WR1 talent that grades out as a low-end WR1 in fantasy, but his talent provides him with giant upside.

Tier 3: WR2 Profiles

Tyreek Hill | Dolphins

• Consensus ADP: 30.9 (Round 3)

Hill was a top-three selection in most fantasy drafts in 2024 but was a colossal bust. He only managed 12.8 PPG. All of his underlyings were also down.

• PPG: 23.3 → 12.8
• First-down share: 39% → 22%
• Target share: 32% → 22%
• YPRR: 3.82 → 1.75
• Air yards share: 43% → 39%

He was slightly better in his 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, with 14.9 PPG. The lack of a QB for multiple games was undoubtedly a factor, especially for YPRR. However, his massive decrease in overall involvement is concerning.

If you reference the Prime Production table, we see that seasons eight to nine are where the first significant decline typically occurs. Since 2011, we have had three examples of receivers falling from WR1 status to WR3 or worse in Year 8, 9, or 10 and rebounding with a WR1 the following year.

• Brandon Marshall: 13.8 → 21.2
• Andre Johnson: 13.6 → 18.5
• Steve Smith: 7.9 → 16.5

It didn't work out as well for Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Jordy Nelson, and Wes Welker. Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald posted respectable seasons, but not high-end WR1 performances. Ultimately, the results have been mixed.

Drafters shouldn't expect Hill to return to the 21.9 PPG we saw during his first two years in Miami. It's at the outer range of outcomes, but so is a complete bust. If Hill can get to 75% of that 21.9, it would be 16.4 PPG. That would be a low-end WR1 season.

The Dolphins are a highly consolidated offense. Mike McDaniel has consistently dialed up the WR cheat-codes for WRs during his time in Miami.

• Play action: 32% (1st)
• Motion at the snap: 73% (1st)
• Two-WR sets: 38.5% (3rd)

Hill needs McDaniel at his best, a full season from Tagovailoa, and some luck with the age curve to post an outlier rebound season. It could happen, but you have to pass a proven dual-threat QB to take him in Round 3. I have him ranked behind all four of those.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks

• Consensus ADP: 36 (Round 3)

Smith-Njigba notched a lowly 8.8 points per game as a rookie (WR5), but got things back on track with 14.9 to land a WR2 rebound in Year 2. He was particularly effective after an injury kept DK Metcalf off the field in Weeks 8 and 9.

• Weeks 1 to 7: 21% target share, 1.10 YPRR, 13.4 PPG
• Weeks 8 to 18: 27% target share, 2.41 YPRR, 17.7 PPG

The 2025 season brings drastic changes to the Seahawks' offense.

• New offensive coordinator: Klint Kubiak replaces Ryan Grubb
• New quarterback: Sam Darnold replaces Geno Smith
• New WR: Cooper Kupp replaces Metcalf

Darnold was a bust before playing under Kevin O'Connell within a loaded offense, but he is willing to push the ball into tight windows. That formula helped JSN excel with Smith.

Kupp could challenge for targets, but we shouldn't expect a big season at this point, given his age and injury history. Still, if he wins the slot role, it could take some easy looks away.

Ultimately, I want to bet on ascending talent, so I am above consensus on JSN. There is a clear path to 150-plus targets for Smith-Njigba in this offense. He is a WR2 with WR1 upside.

Tee Higgins | Bengals

• Consensus ADP: 30.9 (Round 3)

Higgins notched his best fantasy season ever in 2024, averaging 18.7 points. That was three better than his previous mark of 15.7 in 2021. The sixth-year wide receiver has been tough to figure out as a target earner. After adjusting for games missed, Higgins has notched three mediocre seasons and two good ones.

• 2020: 19%
• 2021: 24%
• 2022: 19%
• 2023: 18%
• 2024: 24%

The Bengals see Higgins as a top-notch talent after signing him to a four-year, $115 million contract. However, as fantasy players, we have to consider the idea that Higgins ran into a spike target share season just in time for a massive payday.

Not only did Higgins hit it big in targets, but he also almost doubled his previous TDs per route rate.

• 2020: 1.2%
• 2021: 1.2%
• 2022: 1.3%
• 2023: 1.3%
• 2024: 2.2%

Higgins scored a mouth-watering 10 receiving touchdowns in just 12 games. While we love the Bengals' offensive environment and Higgins has been consistently good at generating touchdowns, 2.2% is outlier territory, making it unlikely to repeat.

Higgins has three top-24 finishes in five years, making him a strong WR2. However, we have to pay a low-end WR1 price tag due to his TD boom in 2024.

Davante Adams | Rams

• Consensus ADP: 37.3 (Round 3)

Adams posted a strong rebound campaign with 17.7 PPG, reuniting with his old pal, Aaron Rodgers. Now heads back to the West Coast to partner with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

Adams is entering his 12th season. That is a range where dramatic cliff seasons can occur out of the blue. Since 2011, we have seen nine WRs put up numbers in Adams' range or higher in Year 11. Below is how they fared in Year 12.

• Steve Smith: WR1 → WR2
• Andre Johnson: WR1 → WR3
• Keenan Allen: WR1 → WR3
• Julian Edelman: WR2 → injured
• Anquan Boldin: WR2 → WR2
• DeAndre Hopkins: WR2 → WR5

The good news is that most of these players were usable the following year. The bad news is that none of them delivered a WR1 campaign.

The Rams project as one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, and Sean McVay is a cheat-code maniac. Still, we are pushing the edge of the envelope in the age department for Adams and Stafford. Plus, Nacua is a young alpha.

Adams is a decent WR2 target, but he comes with several red flags. I am lower than consensus on his outlook for 2025, and I prefer the elite QBs in that range.

Garrett Wilson | Jets

• Consensus ADP: 40.1 (Round 4)

Garrett Wilson has been one of the greatest loves of my life. Just kidding, but you get the point. Wilson is a very talented receiver who has been unlucky. His first downs (30%), targets (27%), and air yards (35%) all point to a WR1.

However, he played two seasons with Zach Wilson. When he was catching fire with Aaron Rodgers, the team added Davante Adams. Now, the Jets turn the reins over to Justin Fields, who has been atrocious as a passer. 

Fields has averaged 180 passing yards for his career in games where he played at least 90% of the snaps. Bro! I have the Jets projected for the fewest passing yards per game (192).

Yes, the targets should come with almost nothing standing in the way. But since 2011, there have been 24 WRs who have run at least 400 routes in an offense that passed for 175 to 199 yards per game.

• WR1 seasons: 0%
• WR2 seasons: 4%
• WR3 seasons: 21%
• WR4 seasons: 12%

Wilson is a WR1 talent playing in a WR5 offense. He ranks in my WR2 range, but that is more to do with the rest of the receivers in this range of the draft than Wilson's outlook. A finish outside the top 24 is a likely outcome. Don't take this man over an elite dual-threat QB.

Mike Evans | Buccaneers

• Consensus ADP: 41 (Round 4)

Evans was an absolute alpha by all accounts in 2024. With Chris Godwin injured, he took on a more diverse route tree and morphed from a deep threat into a do-it-all receiver.

The big question is if he can keep it up heading into Year 12 (see Davante Adams above). The Bucs project as one of the more potent offenses, but Baker Mayfield is due for regression after setting multiple career highs. 

Evans averaged 14.3 PPG in games with Godwin. 

While Godwin (ankle) has yet to practice at training camp, he is expected to play in 2025. Plus, Tampa Bay added Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.

The 32-year-old has provided us with 14.9, 16.8, and 17.5 PPG over the last three years. So, it is hard to argue with him as a WR2, but the questions are mounting as he ages.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | Cardinals

• Consensus ADP: 39.9 (Round 4)

Harrison averaged 11.7 points per game, barely sneaking in a WR3 finish after costing drafters a Round 2 pick as a rookie. If we exclude his Week 6 game, when he only played 15% of the snaps due to a concussion, his average was 12.4 (WR3).

His underlying data is all over the place.

• First downs: 22% (WR3-worthy)
• Targets: 23% (WR2-worthy)
• Air yards: 43% (WR1-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.63 (WR4-worthy)

We need more short and intermediate routes for Harrison to unlock a new level in his game. While he underperformed as a WR3 as a rookie, we have seen that cohort notch a top-24 finish 69% of the time in Year 2. In 26% of the cases, Year 2 culminated with a WR1 finish.

Harrison had a bad first season but has a strong chance at improving in Year 2. He is a reasonable target based on his WR18 price tag, but that doesn't leave us with much margin.

Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers

• Consensus ADP: 68 (Round 6)

This rank is above McMillan's ADP, but I expect him to become the top option for the Panthers immediately. The eighth pick in the NFL Draft was a massive target earner over his final two collegiate campaigns with 30% and 34% shares. He notched an elite rating (92) in the Rookie Super Model.

The NFL Draft has produced 17 top-10 picks at WR since 2011.

• WR1 seasons: 3 of 17 (18%)
• WR2 seasons: 3 of 17 (18%)
• WR3 seasons: 5 of 17 (29%)
• WR4 seasons: 3 of 17 (18%)

McMillan is the No. 29 receiver (WR3 territory) based on consensus ADP. His draft-capital peers have paid that price off or beaten it 65% of the time.

McMillan is a PRIORITY TARGET based on his current ADP. 

Rashee Rice | Chiefs

• Consensus ADP: 48.1 (Round 4)

Rice is due for an estimated two to four-game suspension due to his role in a multi-car accident in 2024. He is also recovering from an LCL injury he suffered in Week 4 of last season, but he is participating in training camp and should be ready to go after the suspension is served.

You won't have him for the early portion of your season, but it is hard to ignore what Rice has done in his first two years as Patrick Mahomes' favorite weapon. Since taking over the starting role in Week 14 of 2023, Rice has averaged 17.8 PPG.

Xavier Worthy picked up steam at the end of last season and will have some runway to establish himself early in the year. But even if Worthy gets going, that doesn't mean Rice can't pay off. We are talking about Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. That duo can support multiple weapons.

I am ahead of ADP on Rice. Once on the field, he is still a better PPG bet than the other WRs going in this range.

Tier 4: WR3 Profiles

DK Metcalf | Steelers

• Consensus ADP: 51.3 (Round 5)

Metcalf's fantasy product has headed in the wrong direction over the last three seasons with 14.9, 14.1, and 13 PPG. But now he has a new home in Pittsburgh, where there is little proven competition for targets from Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers isn't what he once was, but he is good enough to support one fantasy weapon. Davante Adams averaged 17.7 PPG with Rodgers. The question is whether Metcalf can level up his game to an Adams-like level. Historically, he has been a good downfield target (41% air yards), but hasn't been an elite target earner (22%) who can work all layers of the field (19% first-down share).

Still, he has the big-play ability, and there is a chance they scheme him up as more than a vertical threat. Pittsburgh projects as a run-heavy team, and we could see weird playing time splits under Arthur Smith.

Metcalf is a borderline WR2 who could pull off a WR1 season if he can finally grow into a more well-rounded player.

Terry McLaurin | Commanders

• Consensus ADP: 38 (Round 4)

McLaurin has asked for a trade from the Commanders, which clouds his outlook. He enjoyed a career season with Jayden Daniels. The veteran scored 15.9 fantasy points per game, fueling a WR14 finish. McLaurin notched WR31, WR25, and WR38 campaigns in the previous three seasons while posting very similar underlying numbers.

• 2021: 1.81 YPRR, 24% targets, 12.6 points per game
• 2022: 2.04 YPRR, 23% targets, 13.5 points per game
• 2023: 1.56 YPRR, 22% targets, 12.3 points per game
• 2024: 1.98 YPRR, 23% targets, 16.2 points per game

So what changed? You got it, touchdowns. McLaurin scored a whopping 13 with a per-route rate of 2.4%, almost three times what we saw over the previous three seasons.

• 2021: 0.9%
• 2022: 0.9%
• 2023: 0.6%

While Daniels unlocks a new ceiling for McLaurin as a scorer, luck also played a role, and we should expect TD regression. The team added Deebo Samuel, who will gobble up some of the short looks. If McLaurin gets traded, we want a pass-heavy team with a lackluster receiving corps.

McLaurin is a high-end WR3 in Washington.

Xavier Worthy | Chiefs

• Consensus ADP: 56.7 (Round 5)

Worthy averaged 10.7 points per game in the regular season, delivering a WR4 finish. However, he came on strong once given a full-time role. He barely played in Week 18 with starters resting, but in the other seven games from Week 14 through the Super Bowl, he averaged an 87% route participation and put up considerable numbers.

• PPG: 19.0 (WR1-worthy… no pun intended haha)
• Targets: 25% (WR1-worthy)
• Air Yards: 21% (WR5-worthy)
• YPRR: 2.13 (WR2-worthy)

He also averaged 1.1 rushing attempts per game over that stretch, as the No. 1 playmaker for the Chiefs. There was virtually no competition for targets outside of an aging Travis Kelce, who was offering very little after the catch when given opportunities.

We don't know how Worthy's numbers will look once Rashee Rice returns, but there is room for two valuable fantasy WRs with Mahomes. He is a high-end WR3 with upside.

Jameson Williams | Lions

• Consensus ADP: 63.7 (Round 6)

Williams has averaged 2.6, 6.7, and 13.8 (WR2) points per game over his first three seasons. However, last year is the only one we can count. He only played six games as a rookie due to injury and then ended up in the doghouse (51% routes) after a suspension in Year 2.

In his first opportunity as a starter, Williams came through with a WR2-worthy finish in a crowded Lions offense. Even after Sam LaPorta's return to health and a full-time role in Week 12, Williams kept the party going with 14.4 points per game.

There is some boom-bust to Williams' profile. On the boom side, he could be ready to break out and earn a larger role, or could just go nuclear on efficiency. On the bust side, the Lions' offense is crowded, and if passing touchdown regression hits and Williams is target-landlocked by the Sun God and LaPorta, things could get dicey.

Williams is a borderline WR2 who offers WR1 upside if he continues to progress in the targets department. He is a PRIORITY TARGET in Round 6.

George Pickens | Cowboys

• Consensus ADP: 65.9 (Round 6)

Pickens has averaged 9.6, 12.2, and 12.4  points in his first three seasons. While he has yet to break into the WR2 category, his underlying data profile suggests he could blossom into more. He checks every box and now moves to a pass-heavy team.

Yes, he will have to battle target-hog CeeDee Lamb for looks. But the Cowboys project for almost two extra games' worth of dropbacks versus the Steelers' run-heavy offense. Jake Ferguson got paid, but he isn't a high-end target earner. 

Dak Prescott will be the best QB Pickens has ever played with. In Prescott's last two healthy years, he averaged 272 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per contest. There is room for Lamb as the No. 1 with Pickens as the No. 2 and Ferguson as the No. 3 in this attack.

Going back to 2011, post-third-year breakouts have often (53%) been accompanied by a significant offensive environment change. Pickens is in a great spot.

Pickens is a borderline WR2 with high-end WR1 upside.

Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins

• Consensus ADP: 80.1 (Round 7)

Waddle has produced a WR2 season in three of four years with 15.5, 15.0, 13.6, and 9.7. While last year was a letdown, he averaged 12.4 in 10 games where he and Tua Tagovailoa were healthy.

The underlying data in 2022 and 2023 aligned with WR2 and WR3-worthy data points.

• First downs: 25%, 27%
• Targets: 21%, 23%
• YPRR: 2.59, 2.69

Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins rank first in play action (32%), motion (73%), and third in two-WR sets (39%). The former first-round draft pick out of Alabama gets a ton of help from the scheme. One question is if defenses have caught up with some of Miami's creativity or if the 2024 let-down was mostly tied to the absence of Tagovailoa. The truth might be somewhere in the middle. Waddle had a 1.76 YPRR with Tagovailoa.

Waddle's underlyings are WR1-worthy based on 2023 and 2024, and there is potential for a change in team environment that could open the door to a WR1 fantasy finish.

• Tagovailoa plays the majority of games.
• The departure of Jonnu Smith helps (assuming Darren Waller is not in a full-time role).
• Tyreek Hill hits the age cliff.

Davante Adams was a Year 5 WR1 breakout with Aaron Rodgers returning to health after only playing seven games the season before. That same season, Jordy Nelson left, and Randall Cobb played only nine games.

Waddle is a major BOUNCEBACK candidate for a strong WR2 finish and offers WR1 contingent upside.

DJ Moore | Bears

• Consensus ADP: 50.3 (Round 5)

Moore's fantasy production has been sporadic over the last three seasons with 11.8, 17, and 14 PPG. Heading into Year 8, he is at the point where his best days could be behind him.

• First Downs: 36%, 39%, 25%
• Targets: 27%, 29%, 27%
• Air Yards: 48%, 43%, 24%
• YPRR: 1.74, 2.31, 1.44

Moore registered a career-low average depth of target (aDOT), which tanked his air yards in 2024. His three-year average is 11.1.

This is a WR that plays a variety of roles. Yeah, the fantasy production and YPRR were terrible in 2024, but that can be said for all the Bears' receivers. It's unknown if last year is the beginning of the end or if it was a blip. Moore is advancing along the experience curve, but he is at a spot that doesn't preclude him from a rebound season.

The team moved on from Keenan Allen, but added TE Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. They join 2024 first-rounder Rome Odunze.

Moore seems overpriced, given that a rebound season is most likely not a WR1 season, given all the factors.

• Impressive target and first-down history, but 1.84 YPRR over the last four years
• He is in the post-prime era on the experience curve
• Caleb Williams must prove that he can ball consistently (Ben Johnson, a revamped offensive line, and two strong rookies are big positives)
• Some combination of Loveland, Odunze, and Burden could ball out

Moore offers versatility that provides multiple paths to success, but his upside case is likely a WR2 season, and there are paths to a bummer WR4-type season.

Travis Hunter | Jaguars

• Consensus ADP: 69.2 (Round 6)

Hunter earned an 88 rating in the Rookie Super Model, which is the 14th-best mark since 2018. However, his rating would be even higher if we knew a role as a full-time WR was on the table.

Hunter can attack all layers of the field and was a strong target earner in college. That combination is the bedrock of WR1s all over the NFL. Of course, even great prospects sometimes underperform, especially as rookies. And Hunter has the massive question of playing time hanging over his head. When he is on the field, targets should funnel through Hunter and BTJ.

I have him at a 78% route participation, which might be a tad high. We will use the preseason to find clues that help us better estimate his role. He projects as a top-36 WR using 78%, but if that number approaches 85 to 90% we can't rule out high-end WR2 upside.

Hunter is a WR3 with WR1 upside. He also has several easy paths to WR5 territory.

DeVonta Smith | Eagles

• Consensus ADP: 59.7 (Round 5)

After a WR4 start to his career, Smith has delivered three consecutive WR2 seasons with 15.1, 14.4, and 15.3 PPG. Brown is the alpha in Philly, but some of Smith's underlying data from the last three years suggest WR1 upside.

• First Downs: 29%, 25%, 33%
• Targets: 27%, 23%, 28%
• YPRR: 1.98, 1.79, 2.11

Smith is probably a WR1 in an offense without A.J. Brown that throws the ball more. The Eagles will almost certainly pass more this year after a league-low 48% dropback rate last season. That number is rarely repeated, even with teams led by dual-threat quarterbacks. Despite projected regression, they still profile as a run-oriented operation.

Smith has delivered WR2 production in a run-heavy offense with high target competition, and his underlying data suggests WR1 upside. That's an impressive combination. The contingent/variance upside is substantial in this one.

Courtland Sutton | Broncos

• Consensus ADP: 58.6 (Round 5)

Sutton has procured 10.5, 12.3, and 14.2 PPG over the last three years. Last season, his underlying data profile pointed to a player much more involved in the offense.

• First Downs: 25%, 26%, 35%
• Targets: 24%, 20%, 26%
• Air Yards: 31%, 33%, 45%
• YPRR: 1.55, 1.66, 1.84

His YPRR isn't WR1 material, which isn't what you would expect looking at first downs, targets, and air yards. Sutton has demonstrated TD upside but isn't very efficient with his workload. His 2.4 YAC is 42% below the NFL average for WRs with a similar average depth of target (aDOT).

That makes me wonder if the same amount of volume will flow through Sutton again in 2024. Low-efficiency players can lose looks when the team dynamics change. The Broncos added Evan Engram in free agency and drafted Pat Bryant in Round 3.

Sutton is a mid-range WR3 due to my concerns about a setback season and most likely a lack of realistic WR1 upside. My Fugazi sensor is buzzing, buddy.

Zay Flowers | Ravens

• Consensus ADP: 72.9 (Round 7)

Flowers tallied WR3 finishes in back-to-back seasons with 12.8 and 12.3 points per game. In his 15 healthy games, Flowers averaged 13.4 points in 2024.

We also saw progress in three of four categories in Year 2.

• First downs: 25% → 24%
• Targets: 25% → 27%
• Air Yards: 23% → 30%
• YPRR: 1.64 → 2.25

The Ravens are a run-centric offense (-4% DBOE), but outside of the tight ends, the target competition isn't strong. He dominated the Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely duo in 195 pass snaps together with a 31% target share.

He has the skillset to work downfield more often. But to this point, his aDOT has been a limiting factor on his TD production. His aDOT cohort has averaged 4.7 scores since 2011. Flowers is at 4.5 per season.

Some of his closest breakout comparisons heading into Year 3 were Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel, Antonio Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Kendall Wright.

Flowers has some WR1 traits but profiles as a WR3 with WR2 upside.

Calvin Ridley | Titans

• Consensus ADP: 72.9 (Round 7)

Ridley has notched 13.2 and 11.8 PPG over the last two seasons. He didn't play the year before due to a suspension. His data profile offers a mixture of WR1, WR2, and WR3 level traits.

• First downs: 26%, 25%
• Targets: 23%, 22%
• Air Yards: 37%, 44%
• YPRR: 1.57, 1.86

The former Alabama star's underlying data suggests an incomplete WR. However, the competition for targets in Tennessee is low, and Cam Ward offers upside over Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

Last season, Ridley notched a 26% target share and 14.1 PPG after the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans added Tyler Lockett in free agency and took a pair of WRs in Round 4 of the NFL Draft.

For the most part, Ridley hasn't demonstrated the underpinnings of a WR1. That means we can't assume he is going to maximize the lack of competition for targets. But the opportunity for an outlier season is undoubtedly there.

Tier 5: WR4 Profiles

Chris Olave | Saints

• Consensus ADP: 84.9 (Round 7)

Olave has put up 13.3, 14.3, and 9.8 PPG, but the underpinnings of this man's data profile have massive high-end WR2 to low-end WR1 vibes. If you take away two games where he played 4% and 12% of the pass plays due to injuries, Olave averaged 12.5 PPG.

• First downs: 28%, 31%, 28% (40% in healthy games)
• Targets: 26%, 26%, 19% (26%)
• Air Yards: 42%, 40%, 24%, (34%)
• YPRR: 2.42, 2.07, 2.13

Olave has far more in common with WR1s than WR3s. The concerns are health (concussions) and a terrible offensive environment. He has four confirmed concussions since 2022. His season ended in 2024 after he suffered his second concussion of the season in Week 9.

Kellen Moore takes over a solid group of weapons, but the QB room is a red flag. Tyler Shough isn't the ideal rookie prospect you want taking over your team. He could hit, but the probabilities are low, and Spencer Rattler wasn't ideal for fantasy production last year.

Olave offers WR2 upside if the Saints somehow put together a 225-yard-per-game passing attack and he stays healthy. Those things may feel like a stretch, but Olave has the No. 1 trait we want—he is talented. That means when unexpected things in his offensive environment go well, he can pay off in a way many other WRs can't.

Jauan Jennings | 49ers

• Consensus ADP: 97.3 (Round 9)

Jennings headlined waiver wire pick-ups after a 46.5 explosion in Week 3. What is more interesting is how well he played without Brandon Aiyuk, who could miss significant time. From Week 10 to 18, he averaged 14.1 PPG with a 28% target share.

Jennings backed those numbers up with a 26% first-down share, 34% air yards share, and a 2.26 YPRR (WR1-worthy). Jennings fits the bill for a late-career WR2 breakout, where we often see a dramatic change in offensive environment unlock unknown upside in a player.

With Samuel gone, Aiyuk recovering, and Ricky Pearsall still living in the "prove it" bucket, this could be a ripe opportunity for Jennings. He has a shot to be the No. 1 or No. 2 option in an offense that could boom.

I am ahead of ADP on Jennings, making him a VALUE TARGET at a price later than my rank. He is a borderline WR3 with sneaky WR1 breakout potential.

Rome Odunze | Bears

• Consensus ADP: 84.7 (Round 7)

Odunze averaged a pitiful 8.6 points in his rookie year—the third-worst mark for any top 10 NFL Draft selection to play at least eight games since 2011. Only Corey Davis (6.5) and Mike Williams (2.1) were worse.

He was given a full-time role immediately, with a 91% route participation rate, but was unable to register any other high-end underlying data points.

• First Downs: 22%
• Targets: 19%
• Air Yards: 33%
• YPRR: 1.18

The Bears' offense could look dramatically different in 2025 with Ben Johnson calling plays, but Caleb Williams must take a big step forward. Keenan Allen and his 27% targets are up for grabs, but Chicago drafted pass catchers in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden Jr. with their first two picks in the NFL Draft.

As bad as Odunze was, his closest breakout comparisons notched a top-36 finish or better 50% of the time in Year 2. We saw 33% secure a WR2 campaign.

Odunze is a WR4 with WR2 upside.

Matthew Golden | Packers

• Consensus ADP: 102.3 (Round 9)

Some look at this Packers group and say they don't want anything to do with them because the team will just spread it around. That is the wrong way to think about it. The reason we haven't seen a target hog is that no one has been good enough (yet) to take this attack over.

The team has several intriguing options that could make that step this year. Matthew Golden was a reach according to the Rookie Super Model, but the Packers are invested. They want him to succeed, so the path to a full-time role is ripe for the taking. If Green Bay is right about his talent as a Round 1 selection, Golden could boom in Year 1.

Golden is a WR4 with high-end WR2 upside.

Jakobi Meyers | Raiders

• Consensus ADP: 92.4 (Round 8)

Meyers posted 12.9, 13.3, and 14.1 PPG over the last three years. He surged last season after the trade of Davante Adams to the Jets, averaging 15.4 PPG over 13 games. 

• First Downs: 28%, 27%, 29%
• Targets: 22%, 21%, 25%
• Air Yards: 28%, 26%, 36%
• YPRR: 1.90, 1.52, 1.76

Meyers' second-half blowup is notable because Brock Bowers also dominated over that period with a 26% target share. They were able to coexist, and now get an upgrade at QB in Geno Smith. Smith peppered a similar archetype player (JSN), dropping dimes in tight coverage.

Meyers is a borderline WR3 who provides a safe floor. While he accumulates volume, he isn't a maximizer, which limits his ceiling, but a WR2 campaign isn't outside the range of outcomes.

Jerry Jeudy | Browns

• Consensus ADP: 79.5 (Round 7)

Jeudy has tallied 13.7, 8.9, and 13.9 PPG in the last three seasons. His underlying data suggests an erratic performer.

• First Downs: 28%, 19%, 34%
• Targets: 22%, 20%, 24%
• Air Yards: 28%, 33%, 47%
• YPRR: 2.18, 1.65, 1.72

It's hard to know who the real player is within this data, but there is certainly boom-bust potential. Still, talent competition could be challenging. David Njoku and Diontae Johnson are proven target magnets, and Cedric Tillman outperformed Jeudy in four healthy games together.

On a passing offense dependent on Joe Flacco remaining the starter as long as possible, layers another complicating factor. Flacco has proven capable of supporting fantasy production, but if the Browns are losing, they could pull the plug early to get a look at Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders. If you are an optimist, you see that as three arrows in the quiver, which is better than one. Are you an optimist?

Jeudy is a boom-bust WR4 that needs several things to break his way for a big campaign.

Ricky Pearsall | 49ers

• Consensus ADP: 104 (Round 9)

Pearsall averaged only 8.5 PPG, but was recovering from a preseason gunshot wound. His underlying data wasn't better, but he did flash in a full-time role over the last two games of the year with 23.8 PPG and a 22% target share.

The 49ers have a first-round pick invested in Pearsall, and the door is open for him to establish himself early with Aiyuk still recovering from his knee injury. In a scheme that ranks No. 2 in pass-play motion (64%) and two-WR sets (39%), the second-year player could see plenty of fantasy-enhanced routes.

Pearsall is a WR4 with upside, but must boom early to hold onto a significant role once Aiyuk returns.

Jayden Reed | Packers

• Consensus ADP: 101.5 (Round 9)

Reed has delivered 12.4 and 11.5 PPG in two seasons. His underlying data is underwhelming, but he hasn't played a full-time role to this point. He has route participation rates of 63% and 73%.

• First downs: 16% → 17%
• Targets: 17% → 17% (WR5-worthy)
• TPRR: 23% → 19% (WR2- and WR3-worthy)
• Air Yards: 20% → 16%
• YPRR: 2.05 →  2.25
• Rush attempts: 3% → 4%

The rushing attempts help offset some of the playing time challenges, but Reed's YPRR hints at a potential WR1 profile. The bull case for Reed is the Packers removing the governor on his playing time and a 2023-type season for Jordan Love.

We must remember that we often project player roles incorrectly. Last year, the perfect example was De'Von Achane. He was a fade for many because he would never get the attempts inside the five-yard line (he's too small). However, his share inside the five climbed from 23% to 70%.

Despite some of the discouraging underpinnings above, Reed graded out as a strong breakout candidate. We saw 54% of his comparisons notch a top-24 season, and 27% found top-12 success in Year 3.

Reed is one of my favorite WR targets in Rounds 8 to 9 this season. As consensus WR44 in ADP, there is plenty of room to secure a significant profit.

Khalil Shakir | Bills

• Consensus ADP: 101.2 (Round 9)

The Bills extended Shakir with a $53M contract, and he has improved every season.

• PPG: 2.9, 7.5, 12.1
• Routes: 26%, 54%, 75%
• First downs: 4%, 13%, 21%
• Targets: 4%, 9%, 23%
• TPRR: 13%, 14%, 25%
• Air Yards: 6%, 8%, 15%
• YPRR: 1.14, 1.84, 2.15

Shakir's low aDOT (5.5) might cap his TD upside, but he could easily offset that in PPR and half-PPR formats if his playing time expands. It's another example where we can't assume that previous-season role = next-season role—especially for ascending players like Shakir.

The Year 3 WR is the only option on the team with proven target-earning ability, and he plays with Josh Allen. If we get a season where the Bills decide to return to a more pass-heavy approach, it would be the cherry on top.

Shakir is seen by many as a floor play, but we have seen similar archetypes like Rashee Rice and Chris Godwin thrive when the situational factors are unlocked. He is a WR4 with WR2 upside.

Deebo Samuel | Commanders

• Consensus ADP: 88.1 (Round 8)

Samuel is in the post-prime window, and his PPGs (13.4, 14.8, 10.4) and underlying data point to a WR4 without his rushing production:

• First downs: 17%, 19%, 16%
• Targets: 24%, 22%, 19%
• Air Yards: 17%, 19%, 15%
• YPRR: 1.69, 2.32, 1.60
• Rush Attempts: 12%, 7%,10% 

If Samuel loses his rushing volume in Washington, he loses most of his appeal. He could surprise, but this doesn't look like a WR profile that can turn a lack of competition into a massive season. He just doesn't have the versatility, or at least hasn't demonstrated it in his past roles.

The silver lining for Samuel is that Kliff Kingsbury's offense emphasizes aspects that complement Samuel's skills.

Samuel is a high-end WR4 with some hope for upside. His talent profile is limited, which isn't ideal at his age. That makes him extremely dependent on the scheme, creating manufactured looks. If he isn't washed, it could be a fascinating combination with Jayden Daniels.

Stefon Diggs | Patriots

• Consensus ADP: 97.4 (Round 9)

Diggs is in his post-prime era, coming off a mid-season era, which isn't a profile I want to attack heavily. But it is hard to argue with him as a WR4 option given the lack of proven talent in New England and his underlying data.

Is it headed in the wrong direction? Yes. Does that mean he is unusable in fantasy? No.

• PPG: 19, 15.4, 14.5
• First Downs: 35%, 29%, 30%
• Targets: 28%, 29%,
• Air Yards: 34%, 36%,
• YPRR: 2.49, 1.99, 1.84

Diggs isn't an ascending option, and the cliff could hit at any time, which keeps me from pushing him higher, but he is still a WR4 with WR2 upside.

Chris Godwin | Buccaneers

• Consensus ADP: 77.6 (Round 7)

Godwin continues to deal with an ankle injury that has kept him from practicing, and Round 1 rookie Emeka Egbuka continues to shine in training camp. That combination has forced me to push the veteran down the ranks.

• PPG: 15.3, 12.1, 19.7
• First Downs: 25%, 28%, 35%
• Targets: 22%, 23%, 27%
• Air Yards: 17%, 26%, 23%
• YPRR: 1.76, 1.86, 2.36

While last year's blowup is hard to ignore, the offensive environment has changed. Liam Coen is no longer in town. I expect that Josh Grizzard keeps using the things that worked, but he is unproven as a playcaller. Additionally, even if healthy, Godwin is entering Year 9, and Egbuka is a high-quality prospect who can do many of the same things.

Godwin remains overpriced as the consensus WR34 given all the factors. He isn't a complete fade for me. When I can draft him as a WR4, it is much more palatable. 

Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers

• Consensus ADP: 118.7 (Round 10)

Egbuka is my most-drafted WR through 72 drafts on Underdog, as you can see in our Best Ball Player Exposure tool.

Tampa has a crowded WR room, which could be a challenge for Egbuka in a way similar to what Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rome Odunze dealt with as rookies. Still, it's hard not to like the Ohio State product at his WR48 price—we have seen 56% of his Rookie Super Model comps notch a top-24 campaign in their first three years, and 19% climbed into the top 12.

While Egbuka isn't a player we won't want in our early-season lineups, he has a lot of reasonable outs that make him a highly valuable fantasy asset as the season progresses.

1. The Bucs offense could go nuclear and utilize three wide receiver sets as their base personnel.
2. Chris Godwin could struggle early as he recovers from a dislocated ankle.
3. Mike Evans will be 32 this year, and cliff years can come abruptly.

Egbuka is a WR4 with high-end WR2 upside in the right runout of events.

Jordan Addison | Vikings

• Consensus ADP: 81.2 (Round 7)

Addison pleaded guilty to a DUI. The NFL's policy on first-time substance-abuse offenses is three games. Our buddy, Drew Davenport—the best in the business on legal situations—sees two to three games as the sweet spot.

Addison improved across the board from his rookie season to Year 2.

• PPG: 13.0 → 13.7
• First downs: 17% → 21%
• Targets: 18% → 21%
• Air Yards: 27% → 30%
• YPRR: 1.50 → 1.74

A static snapshot of last season has WR3 vibes, but Addison might still be ascending. His closest breakout comparisons snagged a top-24 finish 64% of the time. Still, Addison faces significant target competition from Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

The most realistic path to a big season from Addison is distancing himself from Hockenson as the clear-cut No. 2 in the offense. Jefferson is going to get his.

Addison would be in the WR3 conversation without a suspension. With one, he is a WR4 target that offers WR2 upside.

Tier 6: WR5 profiles

• Jayden Higgins | Texans: Nico Collins is the alpha in Houston, but Higgins could win the No. 2 job. He is a strong target if you need upside after waiting at the position or if your roster is veteran top-heavy in the early rounds.
   
• Cooper Kupp | Seahawks: Kupp is in the decline phase of his career. While a rebound can't be ruled out, betting on aging WRs with a downward trajectory in the underlyings isn't a strong bet. Especially when leaving one of the most prolific WR schemes in the NFL. My favorite time to draft Kupp is when my early WR picks are upside guys with questions.
   
• Josh Downs | Colts: Downs has flashed WR1 potential in his underlying data. However, he faces a crowded receiving room and needs more playing time. The addition of Tyler Warren, who is custom-made for this RPO and play action game, could dominate many of the designed layup touches thanks to his ability after the catch. Downs faces similar challenges to Jayden Reed, but in a less stable QB environment. Downs is a WR5 with upside but faces numerous obstacles.
   
• Michael Pittman | Colts: Pittman has registered 13.6, 15.5, and 13.1 PPG. He is a solid target earner, but the competition is on the rise. Pittman's YPRR data has been influenced by poor QB play. It has been erratic (1.44, 2.04, 1.68). He is a possession receiver who could lose layup targets to more talented options that can add more after the catch. Pittman is a WR5 with WR3 upside.
   
• Brandon Aiyuk | 49ers: Aiyuk could miss a large chunk of the season. Once healthy, it could take some time for him to ramp up. Additionally, if Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall play well earlier, the team won't feel the need to rush. It is within the range of outcomes that, at less than 100%, Aiyuk ends up in a three-way rotation. Aiyuk is a WR5 with proven WR2 upside. I prefer him in builds where I have fewer questions about early-round options and try to avoid stacking him with other injured/suspended players.
   
• Luther Burden | Bears: Burden missed a large chunk of the offseason due to a hamstring injury, but still has time to acclimate. He is a movable chess piece that a play-design aficionado like Ben Johnson could heavily scheme touches. Burden will battle Chicago's last two first-round picks (Odunze and Colston Loveland) for his spot in the pecking order. Burden goes considerably later than some of the other rookie WRs, making him a value to target if you need some young upside.
   
• Rashid Shaheed | Saints: Shaheed averaged 12.6 PPG with a 25% target share and 2.04 YPRR in six contests before missing the rest of the season with a meniscus injury. He is healthy and practicing, making him my favorite for the WR2 job in New Orleans. This offense could be a complete mess, but if one of the young QBs and Kellen Moore can find a way to steady the ship, Shaheed could significantly outperform ADP.
   
• Darnell Mooney | Falcons: Mooney was a perfect fit with an anticipatory thrower like Kirk Cousins. He is a silky route runner but wins via timing, not brute force. Michael Penix Jr. fed the big-bodied London with the targets to close out the season. Penix and Mooney could improve their rapport through a full offseason, but Mooney isn't practicing (shoulder) and is at risk of missing Week 1. Mooney is a WR5 with WR3 potential.

Tier 6: WR6 profiles

• Tre Harris | Chargers: The Round 2 draft pick is battling Quentin Johnston and fellow rookie KeAndre Lambert-Smith for the WR2 role. Lambert-Smith has been a camp darling. The Chargers have also had Keenan Allen in for a visit. There is a path to a full-time role and the No. 2 target option for Justin Herbert.
   
• Keon Coleman | Bills: Coleman was underwhelming as a rookie, but the Bills have a second-round pick invested. His breakout comparables fell in the "so you're telling me there's a chance" range, but he isn't drawing completely dead.
   
• Christian Kirk | Texans: Kirk isn't a high-end target earner but could see favorable reps from the slot. He could also beat out Higgins for some of the work outside. Typically, I only target Kirk when I need a veteran who can serve as a placeholder until one of my young upside plays hits.
   
• Kyle Williams | Patriots: Behind Stefon Diggs, the Bills don't have any high-end target earners. We could see the Round 3 NFL Draft pick earn a full-time role early in the season. Williams is an upside WR6 stash.
   
• Cedric Tillman | Browns: Tillman averaged 18.1 points in four healthy games as a starter in 2024. Yes, those performances were supercharged by the Jameis Winston effect. Still, Tillman notched a 22% target share and saw 40% of the endzone targets. The Browns' passing attack is riddled with QB concerns and target competition, but Tillman is a nice WR6 stash.
   
• Marvin Mims Jr. | Broncos: Mims has flashed big-play upside with downfield TD strikes and schemed looks. To take his game to the next level, he must show he can do the things in between. We could see his backfield reps dwindle. RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins are a much more formidable duo than Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Mims is a WR6 stash.
   
• Hollywood Brown | Chiefs: Brown hasn't looked like the same player in recent seasons, but he is in line for plenty of reps on a good offense. If his lackluster profile is mostly injury-associated, he could become fantasy-relevant in deeper leagues.
   
• Romeo Doubs | Packers: Doubs is a starter on paper, but is in danger of a reduced role. I rarely draft Doubs except when stacking Jordan Love in best ball.
   
• Xavier Legette | Panthers: Legette is a long-shot breakout dart.
   
• Quentin Johnston | Chargers: Believe it or not, Johnston offers a similar breakout profile to Flowers and Reed from a purely numerical standpoint. The addition of Tre Harris and a recent visit from Keenan Allen aren't big votes of confidence, but Johnston is a late-round stash option assuming Allen doesn't sign.
   
• Rashod Bateman | Ravens: Bateman spiked with a nine-TD season. His 2% TD-per-route rate dwarfed his career average of 0.9%. His key underlying data remained in WR6-plus territory. He is going to run routes and find random spikes, which makes him a best-ball only play.
   
• Pat Bryant | Broncos: The Round 3 pick is battling for an opportunity. Denver doesn't have an established WR2, making Bryant a late-round dart.
   
• Joshua Palmer | Bills: Palmer's underlying data has never been strong, so it's hard to expect a significant boost to his fantasy standing. Playing with Josh Allen in an environment shakeup does keep the door open for a surprise season—that is the recipe.
   
• Adam Thielen | Panthers: Thielen will try to hang onto a starting role. The arrival of Tetairoa McMillan dampens the target upside, which is a massive requirement for the aging slot WR. He has been a fantasy value the last two seasons and could offer early-season startability.
   
• Dont'e Thornton | Raiders: The rookie fourth-rounder is a classic size-speed Raiders receiver. He is running with the starters and appears to have a starting role as the field stretcher. It makes a lot of sense given that Bowers and Meyers are underneath targets. Thornton is a fun late-round dart.
   
• Keenan Allen | Chargers: Allen averaged 12.3 PPG with a 27% target share last season. He is on the downswing of his career but should land with a team. He can easily pay off a WR6 price tag.
   
• DeMario Douglas | Patriots: Josh McDaniels' offenses have a long history of utilizing the slot, and the Patriots competition behind Diggs is wide open. Douglas is a WR6 option in PPR formats.
   
• Darius Slayton | Giants: Slayton got paid and figures to be on the field most of the time. He isn't a high-end caliber player, but he meshes well with Russell Wilson's deep ball prowess. Slayton is my most-drafted late-rounder in best ball, where you just need one or two spike games to pay off. In redraft, he is a much tougher click.
   
• Wan'Dale Robinson | Giants: Robinson's stock could take a hit if Wilson focuses more on the downfield attack. He was a strong target earner last season in the underneath game, but didn't add much value with his touches. Wan'Dale is a late-round floor in PPR.

Join Our Newsletter

Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.

Email Address

Subscribe

By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.