When I used to lead product and analytics teams, I would ask a team member pitching a new product feature or data idea, "So what, who cares?" The newbies would look at me with a puzzled look on their face (some of you might be thinking I am a real jerk right about now).

For the record, I was always nice when asking this question, but my point was a simple one. I wanted them to consider why people should care about the data or feature they wanted to add to the product roadmap. Was it rooted in good analysis, and would it help a user accomplish their goals? 

If so, great, let's do it! If not, it went onto the interesting but irrelevant scrap heap. That last part might sound harsh, but the reality is that many ideas and data points are interesting but don't help us achieve our goals. That doesn't mean we can't discuss them, but they shouldn't be at the heart of our decision-making process.

In fantasy football, our goal is to win. To achieve this, we need to target the right players. To put it even more clearly, we need to target the right *types of players*. I have dedicated thousands of hours researching which data points matter for future fantasy performance.

That doesn't mean I will get everything right. There will be misses. Football is a cruel game played with an elongated sphere that can bounce in the most unpredictable ways. The critical thing to remember is that we are playing a game of probabilities.

If we can get more things right than wrong, we have a great chance of beating our opponents. The best way for me to do that is by following the data.

So far, we have covered QB Rankings and Tiers and TE Rankings and Tiers. Today, we turn our attention to RBs.

One final thought before we move forward: It is a great time to be a consumer of content in the fantasy football space. We have some of the brightest minds in the industry's history using a data-driven methodology to deliver league-winning insights. It's a really cool thing.

Speaking of methodology …

Running Back Rankings and Tier Methodology

This article will group players into tiers based on the following data criteria.

• Fantasy points: PPR points per game
• Volume profile: Snap, attempt, and route shares
• Efficiency: Missed tackles forced and yards after contact
• Age: Rounded up based on Week 1
• Offensive rush quality: offensive quality and commitment to the run game
• Competition for opportunities
• Player average draft position (ADP): Consensus (ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, CBS, RTSports, Underdog)

Fantasy points per game, volume, and efficiency

Like other positions, historical fantasy points per game are the gold standard for predicting future fantasy production. However, unlike WRs and TEs, just getting on the field is a massive win for RBs. Targets don't always follow routes for receivers, but rushing attempts go hand-in-hand with snaps at the RB position, and previous-season volume is the strongest predictor of future volume.

For RBs, the correlation to future fantasy points isn't as strong as for WRs and TEs. Simply stated, predicting RB production is more complex. There is a ton of team context, which will be my primary focus in the player write-ups.

There are efficiency stats that RBs own, but the impact on fantasy is negligible without the volume to go along with it.

Efficiency stats are great tie-breakers for backs with similar volume expectations. If you look at the best RB seasons ever, they typically offer the 1-2 punch of volume and efficiency. Explosive rush attempts fare the best when considering stickiness plus predicting next-season production.

Historical data tells us a couple of essential things to remember.

• Small-sample efficiency doesn't always stick as backs take on larger workloads.
• Prior-season efficiency doesn't correlate strongly with increased next-season utilization.
   

Efficiency: correlation to next-season attempts

• Ten-plus yard attempts: 0.23
• Average yards after contact: 0.14
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.00
   

Coaches have their reasons for dividing up volume, and the data points we currently have don't tell the whole story.

When we put it all together, this is what RB1s, RB2s, etc., have looked like on average over the past three seasons.

It's worth noting that over the last three seasons, defenses have prioritized stopping the pass. Inherently, that also means encouraging offenses to run. While correlation doesn't always imply causation, efficiency has improved over the last three seasons in two of three categories:

• Missed tackles forced per attempt for RB1s: 20%
• Average yards after contact for RB1s: 3.1
• Ten-plus yard attempts for RB1s: 12% 

Running Back Age

As players age, the year-over-year correlation in our data decays. By comparing an RB's best three-year stretch (prime production) versus age buckets, we can see when RBs are at their max powers and fall off.

RB age takeaways:

• Ages 22 to 27 are the overall sweet spot.
• Pre-prime: Ages 21 to 22. Age 22 is often a leap year.
• Prime: Ages 23 to 25. The best years for RB production.
• Post-prime: Ages 26 to 27 are similar to age 22. Post-prime comes earlier for RBs.
• Post-prime: Age 28 marks the first year of drastic decline, but it is similar to that of rookies.
• Decline: Ages 29 to 32 aren't what they once were, but decline stabilizes.

Offensive rush quality and competition for opportunity (environment)

The team environment is a significant factor in fantasy production at the RB position. Getting 60% of the rushing volume behind a great offensive line on a high-scoring offense committed to running the ball is fantastic. Handling 60% on a low-scoring offense forced to pass due to trailing game scripts isn't as appealing.

To decipher this portion of our RB profiles, we will utilize Fantasy Life team rushing projections, which consider team, coaching history, and offensive line.

Caveat: pass-catching backs can offset bad offenses in PPR formats thanks to more targets in trailing scripts.

Player average draft position (ADP)

Never before have we had such robust market data. Thanks to the explosion of this game we love (especially best ball), thousands of real-money drafts have already taken place for the 2025 season. We must leverage consensus fantasy football ADP data.

While one of the goals of the tiers is to unearth mispriced players, I want to challenge myself when takes don't align with the market (ADP). It represents something much larger and infinitely more intelligent than one person. You should be highly skeptical if you see an analyst (including me) repeatedly pounding the table for a player moving in the opposite direction of their ADP. 

In "The Logic of Sports Betting," Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow had this to say:

"Market resistance is a massive red flag that you're missing something, and the best thing you can do is stop betting into the resistance and instead try to figure out what you may have gotten wrong."

Note: Consensus ADP is an average of ESPN (PPR), Sleeper (Half PPR), Yahoo (Half PPR), CBS (Standard, 2WR), RTSports (PPR, 2WR, 2FLEX), and Underdog (Half PPR, 3WR).

Enough methodology talk. Let's talk tiers.

Ranking and Tiering The RBs For 2025 Fantasy Football

As I've done in the previous QB and TE rankings and tiers pieces, below you will find my full list of RB rankings and tiers, followed by player-specific analysis.

Tier 1

Bijan Robinson | Falcons

• Consensus ADP: 3.0 (Round 1)

After suffering through a befuddling 45% rush attempt share as a rookie under smarty-pants Arthur Smith, the second-year back flourished under Zac Robinson. The former No. 8 NFL Draft pick finished fourth in points per game (19.9) and second in Utilization Score (91).

Over the second half of the season (Weeks 9 to 18), the Falcons leaned even more into Robinson.

• Points per game (PPG): 22.1
• Snaps: 79%
• Attempts: 67%
• Targets: 14%
• Attempts inside the five-yard line: 76%
• Two-minute offense snaps: 93%
   

On the efficiency front, Robinson also shined.

• Yards per attempt: 4.8 (RB1-worthy)
• Yards after contact per attempt: 3.0 (RB1-worthy)
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 23% (RB1-worthy)
   

Tyler Allgeier is a competent backup, but he isn't a threat to hold back Robinson from a near-every-down role. Robinson is a do-it-all back behind PFF's No. 8-ranked offensive line, and Brandon Thorn's No. 13 unit.

Robinson checks every box in my process and is my RB1. He should be a top-two pick in 2WR and standard scoring leagues. He should be a top-three selection in 3WR leagues with PPR scoring.

Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions

• Consensus ADP: 4.9 (Round 1)

Gibbs is the best running back in the NFL. Despite a 43% rush share and 50% route share splitting time with David Montgomery in Weeks 1 to 14, he posted 17.9 PPG.

In four games with Montgomery out or limited from Week 15 through the playoffs, he went off for 33.3 PPG. Over that span, he handled 66% of the attempts and notched an elite 18% target share.

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To recap: Gibbs is a mid-range RB1 with Montgomery. Without Montgomery, he is THE RB1.

All of the underlying data from 2023 and 2024 aligns with historical high-end performers.

• Ten-plus yard attempts: 15%, 16%
• Yards per attempt: 5.2, 5.7
• Yards after contact: 3.1, 3.3
• Targets per route: 21%, 20%

I have Gibbs projected for 45% of the attempts with a 51% route share and 21% TPRR. Using those numbers, here are his projections in the ceiling-floor model:

• Floor: 12.7
• Median: 16.2
• Ceiling: 22.6

However, what if the Lions finally decide that Gibbs deserves more run? This is what things look like with 55% of attempts and a 60% route participation with the same TPRR (not unreasonable):

• Floor: 15.3
• Median: 19.6
• Ceiling: 26.5
   

Historically, we want to bet on players like Gibbs. While Montgomery is a fine player, Gibbs is a game-changer, and a larger workload is well within his range of outcomes. Early reports from camp don't guarantee anything, but we will monitor it.

The Lions lost two starters in the middle of their line, Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler. Ragnow was PFF's No. 2-rated run blocker at center, and Zeitler was the No. 4 guard. The team hopes Round 2 pick Tate Ratledge offsets the blow.

Gibbs is a top-six option in 2025 fantasy drafts. If he earns a larger role or if Montgomery suffers an injury, Gibbs will help you hang a fantasy championship banner from the rafters.

Christian McCaffrey | 49ers

• Consensus ADP: 11 (Round 1)

Fantasy managers who selected CMC with the first pick in 2024 might be seething reading this ranking. I understand. The subterfuge from the 49ers around McCaffrey's health situation was infuriating. But I have an announcement to make: right now, McCaffrey is healthy and fully participating in camp.

Including playoff games, in his prior two seasons with the 49ers, CMC was as good as it gets.

• 2022: 22.5 PPG, 49% attempt share (14.7), 22% target share (5.6)
   

• 2023: 25.2 PPG, 63% attempt share (17.2 per game), 20% target share (5.5)
   

In a 49ers offense that is reshuffling the deck with Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk as a massive question mark for the 2025 season, CMC should be the centerpiece of the 49ers' attack. The team has an out on his contract after this season, which could also influence a willingness to give him more touches.

San Francisco is more fragile than in past years. Their best offensive linemen, Trent Williams, is 37, and they have the No. 23 o-line per Brandon Thorn and the No. 13 unit according to PFF. However, they hit big on their Round 3 guard Dominick Puni last year—he ranked No. 7 at the position per PFF.

Still, Kyle Shanahan has offset poor offensive line play in the past. He challenges defenses to guard every inch of the field and is a master of deception and setting up big plays.

The biggest thing going for McCaffrey is his elite target-earning ability. Historically, backs who were high-end target earners have aged well.

Since 2000, here are the backs who were between the ages of 28 and 31 (post-prime) with similar historical production to CMC (e.g., dual threats) who played a minimum of 13 games:

• Priest Holmes | Age 28.9 (2002): 31.6 PPG, 22.4 attempts, 5.5 targets
• Marshall Faulk | Age 28.5 (2001): 29.9, 18.6, 7.2
• Priest Homes | Age 29.9 (2003): 27.8, 20, 5.6
• Tiki Barber | Age 29.4 (2004): 21.7, 20.1, 4.9
• Charlie Garner | Age 30.4 (2002): 21.7, 11.4, 6.6
• Matt Forte | Age 28.7 (2014): 21.7, 16.6, 8.1
• Marshall Faulk | Age 29.5 (2002): 20.4, 15.1, 6.6
• Alvin Kamara | Age 29.1 (2024): 19.0, 16.3, 6.4
• Alvin Kamara | Age 28.1 (2023): 17.9, 13.9, 6.6
• Reggie Bush | Age 28.5 (2013): 17.1, 15.9, 5.7
• LeSean McCoy | Age 29.1 (2017): 16.5, 17.9, 4.8
• LaDanian Tomlinson | Age 31.2 (2010): 14.4, 14.6, 5.3
• Charlie Garner | Age 29.5 (2001): 14.2, 13.2
• Austin Ekeler | Age 28.3 (2023): 13.2, 12.8, 5.3
   

I get it. Health is a big assumption, but RB injuries can strike any of our top options. Even if we argue that McCaffrey's risk is slightly higher, it's hard to ignore this comp group. 11 of 14 (79%) notched 16.5 PPG or higher.

As far as talent goes, CMC is closer to the Holmes/Faulk caliber than the Bush/McCoy range. In our ceiling-floor projection model, no other back offers a higher ceiling than McCaffrey. The model uses my projections as the median. Then we layer in variance over each category that makes up fantasy points at the position, and the quality of the player.

CMC projects for 15.1 attempts and 5.1 targets per game. I am taking a slightly conservative approach, giving Isaac Guerendo almost 30% of the work and sprinkling in Round 5 rookie Jordan James.

Ceiling-Floor Projection Model

• Floor: 14.5
• Median: 18.7 (far lower than his average in healthy games with the 49ers)
• Ceiling: 25.8

The ceiling, median, and floor cases align well with the sample group from above.

McCaffrey is my RB3 because he offers the ability to spike for a massive season, possibly his biggest with the team, considering all the skill-position changes. He is a SMASH pick at the end of Round 1 or early Round 2. Ultimately, clicking on CMC comes down to you. If you are worried about injuries, just take a young stud WR.

Note: McCaffrey goes pick 14 in Sleeper and CBS leagues. HELLO.

Saquon Barkley | Eagles

• Consensus ADP: 3.1 (Round 1)

Barkley shredded opposing defenses for 2,005 yards and 13 rushing TDs last season. His PPG surged from 16.1 to 22.5. His underlying data supported those rushing stats.

• 10-plus yard runs: 13% (career high)
• Yards per carry: 5.8 (career high)
• Yards after contact: 3.2 (second-best since rookie season)
   

Playing behind one of the best offensive lines and most run-heavy schemes in the NFL, we should expect another strong campaign, and I don't blame anyone for taking him over CMC—he is a fine pick.

Barkley is a big-play machine, but there is a chance of regression in the TD department. Including the playoffs, Barkley crossed the goalline 18 times. 10 (56%) of those scores came from 20-plus yards away. Since 2020, 13% of rushing TDs have come from 20-plus yards in the NFL.

With Jalen Hurts leading the NFL in attempts inside the five-yard line (45%), Barkley has serious competition for high-leverage opportunities. Since 2020, 58% of RB scores have come from inside the five.

Ultimately, the tiebreaker between Barkley and CMC came down to passing-game work. Barkley registered a career-low 14% targets per route run (TPRR). In an Eagles attack loaded with strong downfield options like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, targets won't be easy to acquire. The departure of Kenneth Gainwell leaves the door open for more passing-down work if Will Shipley can't step up to assume those duties.

Barkley should go in the first three to four picks in 2WR-1FLEX leagues. He is a top-six selection in 3WR formats.

Tier 2

Ashton Jeanty | Raiders

• Consensus ADP: 10.3 (Round 1)

The Raiders' No. 6 pick in the NFL Draft is primed to take over a massive workload out of the gate. With only Raheem Mostert standing in his way, there is a path to a 75% attempt share.

Oh yeah, Jeanty is a bad mofo. He checks all the boxes as a runner and receiver. Jeanty ranks third all-time in the Rookie Super Model with a 91 rating.

Rookie seasons for Jeanty's closest comps in the Super Model:

• Saquon Barkley (100 rating) → 24.0 PPG
• Leonard Fournette (92) → 17.7 PPG
• Christian McCaffrey (91) → 14.4 PPG
• Bijan Robinson (89) → 14.8 PPG
• Jahmyr Gibbs (87) → 16.3 PPG
   

Three of five immediately became RB1s in fantasy. McCaffrey had Jonathan Stewart, and Bijan Robinson was stuck with psycho Arthur Smith. Those two notched 24 and 19.9 PPG in Year 2. Jeanty has neither of those obstacles in his way; it should be wheels up from the get-go.

Jeanty is worthy of a mid-to-late Round 1 pick as a rookie.

De'Von Achane | Dolphins

• Consensus ADP: 14.0 (Round 2)

The man many lauded as too small to earn more work proved the doubters wrong in Year 2.

• Snaps: 42% → 62%
• Attempts: 34% → 48%
• Attempts inside the five-yard line: 23% → 70%
• Routes: 45% → 61%
• Targets: 11% → 15%
• PPG: 16.6 → 17.6
   

Achane's efficiency fell in Year 2 as he battled a high-ankle sprain he picked up in Week 1 versus Jacksonville. He still managed 4.5 yards per tote while his teammates struggled. Raheem Mostert (3.3) and Jaylen Wright (3.7) fared far worse. Achane's explosive rush rate (10-plus yard attempts) fell from 22% to 10%.

The Dolphins also had zero going in the pass game from Weeks 3 to 7, with Tua Tagovailoa out. In 11 games with Tagovailoa, Achane averaged 22.6 PPG.

The biggest question about the Dolphins is the health of Tagovailoa and the offensive line. Brandon Thorn ranks them among his bottom units, and PFF has them No. 25. Miami lost their best lineman from 2023 in Terron Armstead, who was PFF's No. 4-graded tackle in the NFL.

The Dolphins offense has some questions, but Achane has the profile we are looking for: a pass-catching machine with electric play-making ability. He offers a similar range of outcomes to Gibbs, but you can get him in Round 2 of drafts.

Derrick Henry | Ravens

• Consensus ADP: 10.7 (Round 1)

Henry delivered his fifth 19-plus PPG performance in the last six seasons in 2024. He averaged a career-high 2.4 yards before contact, partnering with Lamar Jackson in a scheme that forces defenses to make impossible decisions. That led to the best yards-per-carry mark (5.9) of his illustrious career at the age of 30.

With Henry as the battering ram, the Ravens kicked down the door to the endzone on 35% of drives—the third most in the NFL. Inside the five-yard line, Henry handled 92% (second in the NFL) of the team's attempts.

While most of Henry's scores came from the five-yard line or closer (53%), he also hit long runs of 44, 43, and 87 yards. He notched the highest explosive rush rate of his career at 14%.

He is susceptible to trailing game scripts, as he is not the passing-down back (5% target share). In the Ravens' losses, when they had to pass more, Henry averaged 13.7 PPG.

The big positive for Henry is his rushing upside in a high-quality run-heavy offense. He is the best bet in the NFL to score 12-plus TDs. The trap door floor scenarios are a) an unforeseen shift to pass-heavy game scripts, which outside forces can influence, or b) age finally catches up with King Henry.

Henry is worthy of Round 1 consideration in standard-scoring formats and is an early Round 2 option in PPR and half-PPR contests.

Tier 3

Bucky Irving | Buccaneers

• Consensus ADP: 20.2 (Round 2)

Irving averaged 14.2 PPG as a rookie, but the real story is how he took over the Buccaneers' backfield down the stretch. After the Week 11 bye, Irving became the No. 1 option in Tampa. In seven healthy games through the Wild Card round, he averaged 19.3 PPG.

• Snaps: 62%
• Attempts: 60%
• Attempts inside the five-yard line: 100%
• Routes: 45%
• Targets: 11%
   

In Week 18 and the Wild Card game with everything on the line, the team gave Irving an even larger workload.

Through Irving's emergence, Rachaad White retained most of the passing-down work. That trend could continue, but don't be surprised if Irving expands his takeover into pass downs. He outperformed White as a receiver on a per-route basis.

• Targets per route run (TPRR): Irving 21%, White 18%
• Yards per route run (YPRR): Irving 1.63, White 1.32
   

Historically, top-six RBs have delivered a 21% TPRR and 1.45 YPRR on average. Both marks that Irving eclipsed.

On the ground, Irving was absolutely electric.

• Ten-plus yard attempts: 13% (high-end RB1 worthy)
• Yards per attempt: 5.4 (high-end RB1 worthy)
• Yards after contact per attempt: 4.0 (high-end RB1 worthy)
• Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.28 (high-end RB1 worthy)
   

Tampa Bay might not have Tristan Wirfs (knee) for the early part of the year, but when healthy, they project as a top-six unit at PFF, according to Brandon Thorn. I have the Bucs projected for regression after a career year from Baker Mayfield, but they still rank 10th in TD projection (43).

Irving is a HIGH PRIORITY in late Round 2. He is an ascending talent playing in a good offense. If he takes over more passing-down work, he offers RB1 overall upside.

Josh Jacobs | Packers

• Consensus ADP: 17.9 (Round 2)

Jacobs has delivered a top-six PPG fantasy finish in two of the last three years.

• 2022: 19.4 (3rd)
• 2023: 14.1 (18th)
• 2024: 17.8 (6th)
   

While he isn't as flashy as some runners, Jacobs has reached a 10% or higher explosive rush rate in five of six years. He is also a trusted option inside the five-yard line. Last season, he handled 70% of those high-leverage opportunities.

The Packers didn't load Jacobs up on passing downs, opting to let Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks ease the burden of the two-minute offense and long-down-and-distance (LDD) snaps. Historically, Jacobs has never shown much upside as a receiver with career YPRR marks in RB3 territory.

Green Bay's offensive line ranks toward the league average for PFF and Thorn. Last year, they were the second-most run-heavy unit (-6.4% DBOE). That is likely to regress toward more passing with Jordan Love healthy. In 2023, they had a 0.2% DBOE.

While that could impact attempts for Jacobs, the Packers have ranked among the league leaders in TDs per drive in two years with Love under center.

• 2023: 26% (7th)
• 2024: 27% (8th)
   

The Packers rank No. 6 in projected TDs in my projections.

Jacobs is locked into the RB1 role in a high-quality offense. He doesn't offer dual-threat upside, but he could score 12-plus TDs. He is a low-end RB1 option.

Jonathan Taylor | Colts

• Consensus ADP: 19.4 (Round 2)

Taylor is in his prime and rarely leaves the field. In 2024, he handled 77% of the Colts' rushing attempts, averaging 102 yards on the ground. He ranked second in snap share (80%) with a healthy 60% route participation, but was rarely targeted (8%).

The sixth-year back feels like a safe bet to easily lead the Colts' backfield in touches again in 2025, with the team waiting until Round 5 to add any competition. DJ Giddens is battling for the RB2 role and could take some of the same work Taylor gave away on passing downs last year.

Indianapolis is committed to the run. They were the third-heaviest run unit based on DBOE (-6.3%). Only the Eagles and Packers ran more.

While all of those things point toward potential big rushing yard production, a laundry list of factors makes Taylor a risky bet in 2025.

1. Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones notched 36% and 45% attempt shares inside the five-yard line last year. Either could poach high-leverage carries away from Taylor.
2. The Colts project for the sixth-fewest TDs (37) in my projection model.
3. The offensive line lost two starters in center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries.
4. Taylor will likely remain an afterthought in the passing attack. The Colts have plenty of receiving weapons, and both of their passers are willing to scramble instead.
5. DBOE isn't highly stable year-over-year. Trailing game scripts could force more passing.
    

Over the last three years, we have seen volatility in Taylor's outcomes from a PPG perspective: 13.8, 15.6, and 17.6. There were some injuries at play along the way, but Taylor isn't a lock to finish as a top-12 option at the position.

For Taylor to make us regret passing on him in drafts, the Colts would need to outperform expectations massively as an offense. While that could happen, it isn't a high probability given their QB situation.

Taylor is a good running back. If he were on the Ravens, he would be a Round 1 pick. But this is the Colts, not the Ravens. I am below consensus on Taylor, given all the question marks. He is a borderline RB1.

Omarion Hampton | Colts

• Consensus ADP: 43.9 (Round 4)

This name should immediately have your attention, given where I have him in the tiers and his Round 4 ADP.

Hampton earned a 79 rating in the Rookie Super Model. Historically, 73% of similar backs have delivered a top-12 finish by Year 3.

While Najee Harris has the skillset to hamper Hampton's early-season outlook, the veteran's return date from a fireworks eye injury is unknown. The door is wide open for the Chargers' Round 1 investment to take over this backfield immediately.

Hampton offers the size/speed combination that should lead to chunk plays and a high rushing TD ceiling. The Chargers ran the ball 65% (8th) inside the five-yard line last year.

Hampton is not an elite passing-game option, but he has the skillset to handle a 10 to 12% target share in an offense that isn't loaded in the passing game. Outside of Ladd McConkey, the Chargers have unknowns at WR and TE.

Historically, Greg Roman offenses haven't targeted the backs often, but many of his quarterbacks have been scramblers. Colin Kaepernick (9%) and Jackson (9.3%) scramble far more often than Justin Herbert. His career scramble rate is 4.5%. That's below the three-year average for a starting NFL QB (5.2%).

The Chargers have invested in their offensive line with three first-round selections since 2021. They added Jets' former Round 1 pick Mekhi Becton to play right guard. The unit ranks in the top 10 for Brandon Thorn and PFF.

Hampton is a PRIORITY TARGET in Round 3 of drafts. He is a borderline RB1 with mid-range RB1 upside.

Chase Brown | Bengals

• Consensus ADP: 28 (Round 3)

Brown erupted in the second half of 2024 after the loss of Zack Moss to a neck injury. Over an eight-game sample, he averaged 20.9 points per game with an 85% snap share.

All around, Brown was a solid contributor on the ground. We didn't see his timed speed show up in the explosive rush department in a big way (10%). As a receiver, Brown was much less involved before the loss of Moss, and the team signed Samaje Perine (passing-down specialist) this offseason. Brown's underlying receiving profile was also lackluster.

• TPRR: 19% (RB2-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.06 (RB6-worthy)
   

The Bengals are a pass-happy offense (No. 1 DBOE of 8%) with one of the worst-graded offensive lines in the NFL, so winning the passing down role is a key component to success for Brown.

Brown appears to be headed for an RB1-worthy workload, but my spidey senses are tingling on this one. He is a fine Round 3 target, but he is not a must-have for me in 2025.

Breece Hall | Jets

• Consensus ADP: 35.6 (Late Round 3)

This one is really straightforward. Hall is a dual-threat playmaker in his prime, y'all!

• Explosive rush rate: 12% (top-six RB-worthy)
• Target share: 14% (top-six RB-worthy)
   

He has averaged 16.7, 17.0, and 15.1 PPG over his first three years, despite playing in dysfunctional offenses much of the time.

There have been rumblings of a larger timeshare with Braelon Allen based on the arrival of OC Tanner Engstrand from the Lions, where they had a 1-2 punch. While we can never rule that out, let's face it, Braelon Allen wasn't good last year. Only 5% of his attempts went for 10-plus yards, and he forced a missed tackle on only 11% of carries. If we see a 1A/1B scenario with the starters in preseason, I will adjust.

The Jets have invested heavily in their offensive line since 2021 with three first-round picks and one second-rounder. This year, they took tackle Armand Membou in Round 1. With the threat of Justin Fields as a rusher, if schemed right, we could see massive efficiency returns for Hall on the ground.

While Fields is a scrambler, which could hurt Hall as a receiver, this passing attack doesn't have a proven No. 2 option behind Garrett Wilson. Hall could be the second or third most targeted option. The fourth-year back has reached a 1.75 YPRR in two of three seasons.

The biggest concern for Hall: I have this offense projected for the third-fewest TDs. The good news is that his receiving skills can offset bad game scripts. I have almost half of their scores coming on the ground.

Hall is a PRIORITY target in Round 3 of fantasy drafts.

Tier 4

• Kenneth Walker III | Seahawks: Walker reached a career-high 16.5 PPG last year. He expanded his role in the passing game to take over the two-minute offense (69%) of snaps and upped his route participation from 36% to 49%. Klint Kubiak takes over as offensive coordinator. He ran outside zone the third-most last season (46%), which is an excellent fit for Walker's jump cut ability. Walker's explosive rush rate (8%) was down last year, but was at 13% and 11% the two years before. Zach Charbonnet is a formidable No. 2 but hasn't been able to unseat Walker in two years. Walker is a PRIORITY Round 4 target in drafts.
   
• Kyren Williams | Rams: Williams has delivered 21.4 and 17.4 PPG over the past two seasons. His yards per carry took a big dip from 5.0 to 4.1, and the Rams added an RB in the middle rounds for the second year in a row (Jarquez Hunter, Round 4). Most smaller backs have explosiveness on their side, which is concerning considering Williams isn't a target earner either. Williams is a high-end RB2, but I would prefer a new contract to feel better about his volume continuing.
   
• James Cook | Bills: Cook delivered his best fantasy season to date with 17.1 PPG, including the playoffs. His explosive rush rate fell to 10% in 2024, but he reached 14% the year before on 237 attempts. The big difference for Cook last season was an improved role inside the five-yard line. His attempt share improved from 15% to 48%. He is still due for TD regression after averaging a score on 8% of attempts (2% and 1% the years before), but this role is highly valuable in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Unfortunately, Cook's route participation fell from 47% to 40% and Joe Brady doesn't seem to be worried about getting him more pass-down reps. Cook is a mid-range RB2 option who offers RB1 upside should his passing-down work expand.
   
• Alvin Kamara | Saints: Kamara averaged a whopping 19.0 PPG despite playing in a terrible offense. He is one of the best target earners in the history of the position, which helps him offset his offensive environment. While his explosive run rate isn't what it once was, it is still in RB2 territory. Kamara is a mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside if the Saints offense surprises. The big question is how valuable he will be if this team is tanking down the stretch.
   
• Chuba Hubbard | Panthers: Hubbard exploded onto the fantasy map with 16.4 PPG last year. Carolina rewarded him with a four-year extension worth $33.2M with $15M guaranteed. The Panthers' offense projects as one of the lower-scoring units, but Hubbard is the clear-cut RB1 heading into Week 1. The team added Rico Dowdle in free agency and drafted Trevor Etienne in Round 4. My biggest concern about Hubbard is his staying power in the passing game. His 12% target share was mostly a product of the Panthers' lack of firepower at WR and TE last season. Hubbard has a 0.81 career YPRR, which is backup RB material. With the addition of Tetairoa McMillan, look for the targets to come down in 2025. Hubbard is a mid-range RB2 with RB3 downside if he loses the passing-down work and the offense doesn't improve.
   
• James Conner | Cardinals: Conner has been a consistent fantasy performer over the last three years with 15.6, 15.5, and 15.7 PPG. He is a plus in the passing game, notching an 11%+ target share in two of the last three years. Despite his age, he has also provided big-play ability with 15% and 14% of his attempts going for 10-plus yards with Drew Petzing as the OC. Conner is a mid-range RB2.

Tier 5

• TreVeyon Henderson | Patriots: New England is primarily made up of move-the-chains guys. They are desperately lacking big-play potential, which is what Henderson offers. Henderson busted 17% of his attempts for 10-plus yards at Ohio State. I have New England's second-round pick projected for a split workload with Rhamondre Stevenson, which makes him a risky volume play. However, given Henderson's profile (my No. 3 RB in the class), a massive workload might not be necessary for him to pay fantasy dividends immediately. Henderson is a borderline RB2 with upside.
   
• RJ Harvey | Broncos: Sean Payton and the Broncos took Harvey a round ahead of where mocks had him going in the NFL Draft with a Round 2 pick (60). Harvey offers a unique blend of elusiveness and explosiveness, touting a 31% missed tackles forced rate (73rd percentile since 2017). He creased opposing defenses for a 10-plus-yard gain on 21% of his attempts (75th percentile). J.K. Dobbins will battle Harvey for opportunities after busting 14% of his attempts for 10-plus yards last year. Harvey is a borderline RB2 with upside.

Tier 6

• D'Andre Swift | Bears: Over the first three years of Swift's career, he flashed the underlying aspects we want in fantasy. He hit explosive runs (11%, 14%, and 13%) and was productive in the passing game (1.58, 1.41, and 1.65 YPRR). However, Swift has delivered 13.5, 12.6, and 12.5 PPG over the last three seasons. Over that span, his explosive rush rate has dwindled: 13%, 10%, 7%. The YPRR has plummeted (0.77 and 1.09). The Bears massively upgraded their offensive line and playcalling situation (Ben Johnson) in hopes of getting Caleb Williams on track. If Swift can somehow find that old version of himself, he could surprise in 2025. If he doesn't, we could see him splitting time or worse. Swift is a borderline RB2.
   
• David Montgomery | Lions: Montgomery has 14.8 and 15.7 PPG in two seasons in Detroit. He isn't an explosive runner and only has one good season as a pass-catcher on his resume (2024). That makes him extremely dependent on volume and TDs. The good news: he plays on an offense that can support the TDs. The bad news: Jahmyr Gibbs is the better back, and we could see Montgomery's role curtailed at any time. Montgomery is an RB3 who needs a precise set of circumstances to pay off. However, if something happened to Gibbs, Montgomery would instantly move into RB1 territory.
   
• Kaleb Johnson | Steelers: Johnson is battling Jaylen Warren for touches in the Steelers' backfield. He falls a tier below Henderson and Harvey for a few reasons. First, only 13% of his attempts went for 10-plus yards in college (31st percentile). Second, he wasn't a strong receiver in college with a 38th-percentile (0.78) receiving yards per team pass attempt. Third, Warren has been a good dual-threat back when healthy. Fourth, Arthur Smith limited Bijan Robinson to a 44% share as the No. 4 pick overall. Johnson has a good chance to lead this team in rushing attempts, but most of the passing work should channel through Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Johnson is an RB3 who could develop into an upside RB2 as the season progresses.
   
• Aaron Jones | Vikings: At the age of 30.8, Jones isn't the back he once was, but that is still better than many backs in the league. The concern is that Jones averaged 14.2 PPG in a role (64% snap share) he is unlikely to see again after the addition of Jordan Mason via trade. Last year, Jones accounted for 60% of the attempts, including 65% of the work inside the five-yard line—both numbers that could easily come down. Jones likely holds onto the passing-down work, but his TPRR dipped to 18% in an offense with plenty of other weapons. Jones is an RB3 who offers RB2 upside if we are wrong about Mason eating into the workload.
   
• Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs: Pacheco averaged 16 PPG once taking over the starting role in 2023 and was off to a hot start in 2024 with the same role with 16.6 PPG before a broken fibula ended his season. Pacheco wasn't the same after he returned, and his playing time suffered. While Kareem Hunt isn't a huge obstacle, early reports out of camp have Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith working in on passing downs, which makes this a situation to monitor in the preseason. While Pacheco has been solid on volume, he offers average explosiveness and is below average as a pass catcher, which could open the door for a committee. My stance on Pacheco has softened with early training camp reports pointing toward a rotation. Pacheco is an RB3 with a chance to lock down the lead role and provide high-end RB2 upside.
   
• Tony Pollard | Titans: Pollard gave us 13.1 and 12.7 PPG the last two seasons. His juice as a pass catcher has evaporated since the tight-rope surgery. The man who delivered marks of 2.01 and 1.51 in 2021 and 2022 managed 0.78 and 0.79 in the last two seasons. On a positive note, Pollard's 12% explosive rush rate was more in line with his pre-surgery numbers. Still, most of Pollard's biggest games came without Tyjae Spears in the lineup. The Titans' coaching staff has repeatedly told us they see this as a committee, but it just didn't play out that way in 2024 due to health reasons. Pollard is an RB3.
   
• Brian Robinson Jr. | Commanders: Robinson is the favorite to lead the team in carries. If the team runs hot, he could punch in double-digit touchdowns, which is his primary path to relevance in 2025 fantasy leagues. The passing down work is doubtful to come his way with Austin Ekeler on the roster and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt already challenging for two-minute snaps in training camp. You are hoping the Commanders have a Lions-like season and Robinson becomes David Montgomery. Robinson is a TD-dependent RB3.
   
• Joe Mixon | Texans: Mixon dominated the Texans' backfield in 2024, but is on the non-football Injury list (NFI) due to an ankle/foot injury that apparently occurred in the offseason. When you add the injury to his age (29), the last-place rank for the Texans' offensive line by PFF and Brandon Thorn, plus the additions of Nick Chubb (free agency) and Woody Marks (via trade up in the draft), this is a situation to avoid unless he falls multiple rounds past ADP. Mixon is a very risky boom-bust RB3.

Tier 7

• Jaylen Warren | Steelers: Warren handled 45% of the snaps in his healthy games in 2024 and will now battle rookie Kaleb Johnson instead of Najee Harris for work. Warren had a 12% explosive rush rate last year, battling injuries. The year before, he was at 16%. He has also been a plus in the passing game with 1.45 and 1.44 YPRR marks in the last two years. Warren will share time with Johnson, but he could make a push for the most significant role of his career. Warren is a mid-range RB3 with the skillset to make an RB2 push if he leads the team in rushing.
   
• Tyrone Tracy | Giants: Tracy will battle rookie Cam Skattebo for the lead role for the Giants. Tracy averaged 13.5 PPG over 13 games as the starter as a rookie. He notched an 11% target share. This battle could go either way or end up in a committee; it's hard to predict. Tracy is a mid-range RB3.
   
• Jordan Mason | Vikings: The Vikings traded away a fifth-round NFL draft pick and swapped sixth-rounders to acquire Mason. Filling in for McCaffrey with the 49ers, Mason averaged 16.8 PPG over the first five weeks before suffering a shoulder injury. Mason will battle Jones for touches and has a sneaky chance to make it more of a 1A/1B scenario. Mason is a mid-range RB3 with RB2 upside.
   
• Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots: Stevenson's points per game have deteriorated over the last three years: 14.8, 12.3, and 11.9. Now, TreVeyon Henderson arrives with Round 2 NFL Draft capital behind him. Stevenson is a low-end RB3.
   
• Quinshon Judkins | Browns: Judkins remains unsigned after an arrest for misdemeanor battery in July. The Browns are unsure of when they will sign Judkins, and there's a non-zero percent chance he doesn't get signed. If he does sign, he is likely to face suspension. Before all of this news, I had the Round 2 pick projected as the lead back for the Browns. Judkins is a stash option who could offer RB2 upside if he takes the field.
   
• Travis Etienne | Jaguars: Etienne has a three-down skillset and is a former Round 1 NFL Draft pick, but battled injuries and fell out of favor down the stretch, averaging a 53% snap share over the final six games. New head coach Liam Coen has worked him some with the starters in training camp, and he has handled passing down reps. Etienne is a borderline RB3.
   
• Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks: Walker established himself as the clear RB1 last year under head coach Mike Macdonald. But Seattle moved on from OC Ryan Grubb to Klint Kubiak, which creates some uncertainty about the backfield split. When given opportunities, Charbonnet has played well. He averaged 18.7 PPG in six games without Walker last year. Charbonnet is an RB4 with contingent RB1 upside.
   
• Tyjae Spears | Titans: Spears averaged 20.7 PPG from Week 15 to Week 17 as the starter for the Titans. Over that span, he posted a 14% target share. He delivered an 11% rush rate on the season despite battling injuries. The year before, he hit 13%. The coaching staff hinted at a 1A/1B scenario last season that never played out due to injuries, but we could see it in 2025. Spears has the explosive pass-catching profile that makes him a PRIORITY RB4 TARGET.
   
• Cam Skattebo | Giants: Skattebo offers the most prolific receiving profile in this NFL Draft class after Jeanty. He notched a best-season 16% target share and registered a 37% missed tackles forced rate (91st percentile). Skattebo also gained 10-plus yards on 18% of his collegiate totes. Skattebo offers a ton of versatility, providing him with multiple outs as a low-end RB3 with RB2 upside.
   
• Dylan Sampson | Browns: Sampson is the youngest back in this draft class and a projection pick based on a strong film rating in the Rookie Super Model. He has a tremendous feel for the game and could be this year's Bucky Irving. With the legal woes surrounding Judkins, Sampson could be starting Week 1. Sampson is an RB4 with RB2 upside and is a PRIORITY TARGET in drafts.
   
• Javonte Williams | Cowboys: Javonte Williams signed a one-year $3M contract, but hasn't been himself since a 2022 ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner injury. Before the injury, Williams was one of the most elusive and explosive backs in the league. He is an RB4.
  • Williams pre-injury:

    • Yards after contact: 3.4 and 3.5 (RB1-worthy)

    • Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.31 and 0.34 (RB1-worthy)
    • 10-plus yard attempts: 12%, 15% (RB1-worthy)
  • Post-injury:
    • Yards after contact: 2.7 and 2.4 (backup-worthy)
    • Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.15 and 0.16 (backup-worthy)
    • 10-plus yard attempts: 10%, 9% (RB2/3-worthy)
• Tank Bigsby | Jaguars: Bigsby took over the early-down work, handling 48% of the rushing attempts in 2024. He was almost non-existent in the passing game with a 2% target share. Early reports out of Jaguars' training camp have Bigsby in a similar role in the new offense. Bhayshul Tuten could eventually turn this into a three-headed monster or take over as the season progresses. Bigsby is a mid-range RB4.
   
• J.K. Dobbins | Broncos: Dobbins isn't your garden-variety late offseason signing—he was a good player in 2024. The sixth-year veteran averaged 4.6 yards per carry and busted 14% of his runs for 10+ yards. Now add in the narrative regarding how much Payton loves to rotate his backs, and we have a recipe for uncertainty. Dobbins is a mid-range RB4 with RB2 upside.
   
• Ray Davis | Bills: Davis operated as the RB2 behind Cook as a rookie, but Ty Johnson also worked in on passing downs. In one start for Cook, Davis scored 18.2 points. Davis is a strong handcuff option, and he may carve out a larger workload in Year 2. He is a mid-range RB4.

Tier 8

• Nick Chubb | Texans: With the uncertainty around Mixon, Chubb could be in line to handle a much larger workload than we anticipated. While he might not be the runner we once knew, Chubb is a fine low-end RB4 target later in drafts.
   
• Jerome Ford | Browns: Similar to Sampson, Ford has an opportunity to play a much larger role than expected due to Judkins' legal situation. Ford has shown skills as an early-down option and in the passing game. Ford is a low-end RB4 with RB2 upside.
   
• Miles Sanders | Cowboys: Sanders never lived up to his Round 2 NFL Draft capital or the free-agent contract he signed with the Panthers, but at age 28, he could still be the answer if Williams' lack of explosiveness or Blue's lack of experience hold them back. Sanders is battling Williams for RB1 duties so far in camp. Sanders is borderline RB4 with RB2 upside.
   
• Najee Harris | Chargers: We don't know when Harris will return from the eye injury he suffered in a fireworks accident. He has been a dependable three-down back over the years and offers the physicality that Jim Harbaugh appreciates. If healthy, Harris is an RB4 with contingent RB2 upside should Hampton struggle.
   
• Tyler Allgeier | Falcons: Robinson has the lead role on lockdown, but Allgeier is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy. If Robinson misses any time, Allgeier would immediately move into the RB2 conversation. Allgeier is an RB5 handcuff option with contingent RB2 upside.
   
• Isaac Guerendo | 49ers: Guerendo handled the starting role in four games, averaging 17.9 points. San Francisco traded away Jordan Mason but added Jordan James in Round 5 of the NFL Draft to compete. Guerendo is an RB5 handcuff with contingent RB1 upside.
   
• Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars: Tuten offers the explosive play-making ability the Jaguars want to infuse into their offense. However, he has worked behind Etienne and Bigsby to this point in camp and has a hamstring injury. Tuten could still be the RB1 by the end of the season for Jacksonville, but for now, I have moved him down, expecting a slower start. Tuten is an RB5 upside stash.
   
• Jaydon Blue | Cowboys: Blue had to battle Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks for opportunities at Texas in his first two seasons. Getting more work in his final year would make us feel better, but he has passing-down chops and long speed, leaving the door open for a larger-than-expected impact on the offense. Early in camp, Blue is battling for passing-down duties. Blue is an RB5 upside stash.
   
• Jaylen Wright | Dolphins: The second-year back notched 10-plus yards on 12% of his totes as a rookie, but playing time was limited with Achane and Raheem Mostert. Now, with Mostert playing for the Raiders, Wright steps into the No. 2 role in an offense perfectly designed for his home-run hitting ability (4.38 forty-yard dash). Don't forget that the Dolphins sent their 2025 third-round pick to move up in the fourth round of the 2024 draft to select Wright. Wright is an upside RB5 handcuff.
   
• Trey Benson | Cardinals: Benson didn't do much as a rookie, but Arizona invested a Round 3 pick. Benson is an upside RB5 handcuff.
   
• Braelon Allen | Jets: Allen wasn't good as a rookie (see Breece Hall above), but he is getting all the buzz as the RB2 in camp. Allen is an RB5 handcuff, but Isaiah Davis might keep it from being a 1:1 replacement of Hall.
   
• Roschon Johnson | Bears: Roschon hasn't done much over his first two seasons, but D'Andre Swift has also been lackluster over the last two seasons. Johnson could force a committee and offers contingent RB2 upside if Swift falters.
   
• Tahj Brooks | Bengals: With the release of Zack Moss, the Round 6 NFL Draft Pick becomes the handcuff for Chase Brown. Samaje Perine is also on the team, but his best fit is as a passing-down helper. Brooks is a mid-range RB5 handcuff.
   
• Austin Ekeler | Commanders: Ekeler will battle Jacory Croskey-Merritt for passing down work. Ekeler is a low-end RB5 option in PPR formats.
   
• Rachaad White | Buccaneers: White fell out of favor for a much better player in Irving. He could still handle the passing down work and will battle Sean Tucker for contingent value if Irving misses time. White is a low-end RB5.
   
• Rico Dowdle | Panthers: Dowdle is the No. 2 behind Chuba Hubbard on the Panthers depth chart, but Trevor Etienne could push him for reps as the season progresses. Dowdle is an RB5.
   
• Will Shipley | Eagles: Shipley is battling A.J. Dillon for the RB2 work. He offers an every-down skillset that would make him valuable if he can win the job. Shipley is an RB5 stash option.

 Tier 9

• Blake Corum | Rams: Corum and Hunter are battling for the RB2 role in a potent offense. Corum is an RB6 stash play.
   
• Jarquez Hunter | Rams: See Corum. Hunter is an RB6 stash play.
   
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Commanders: Croskey-Merritt has earned a ton of buzz out of camp. The Commanders' RB depth chart doesn't have a superstar, leaving the door open for a surprise from the Round 7 rookie. Croskey-Merritt is an RB6 stash.
   
• DJ Giddens | Colts: Giddens is vying for passing-down work and the RB2 role behind Taylor. Giddens has the size/speed combo teams love. The rookie is an RB6 stash.
   
• Woody Marks | Texans: Marks gets a bump back up the ranks with the questions surrounding Mixon. He was a prolific receiver out of the backfield in college with a 22% career TPRR. Marks is an RB6 stash who profiles better in PPR.
   
• Brashard Smith | Chiefs: Smith is getting some training camp love, and given the lack of a superstar in the Chiefs' depth chart, it is worth paying attention. Smith had a 24% career TPRR in college. He was a WR for his first three seasons at Miami before transitioning to RB at SMU. He is an RB6 stash option.
   
• Raheem Mostert | Raiders: Mostert will be 33.5 when the season starts, but looks like the RB2 behind Ashton Jeanty. Mostert is an RB6 for deep leagues.
   
• MarShawn Lloyd | Packers: Lloyd is battling a groin injury. Injuries have derailed his career to this point. He is an RB6 in deep formats.
   
• Trevor Etienne | Panthers: The Panthers' Round 4 pick will challenge Rico Dowdle for the RB2 role. Etienne is an RB6 in deep leagues.
   
• Elijah Mitchell | Chiefs: Mitchell offers the explosive upside Pacheco and Hunt lack, which keeps the door open for a role. Andy Reid compares him to Jerrick McKinnon, who found fantasy relevance for stretches while in Kansas City. Mitchell is an RB6 in deep formats.

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