For this research, our focus is on Years 2 and 3. Rookies are extremely important—they are the third-best hit-rate bucket for WR1 breakouts and the second-best bucket for WR2 breakouts—but I have you covered with the Rookie Super Model.

My rookie rankings utilize the model to compare the 2025 class to previous years, providing hit rates for prospects. If that isn't enough, I have also run the rookie RBs and WRs through our ceiling-floor projection model so we can get a feel for their range of outcomes.

Okay, back to Year 2 and 3 breakouts, but before we dive in, let's recap what we have learned so far:

1. Years 2 and 3 are huge years for WR breakouts.
2. WR1s typically come from players with WR2 or WR3 performances on their resume.

3. WR2 breakouts are more diverse, providing opportunities for slow-start rookies to improve.

If a wide receiver has already notched a WR1 season, they are not eligible for this analysis. Still, don't forget the Year 2 jump from our Prime Production research table. Malik Nabers (18.1 PPG) and Brian Thomas Jr. (16.5 PPG) notched WR1 campaigns as rookies, and they are good bets to keep on keepin' on in 2025 or push higher.

Below are the WRs to reach WR1 status as rookies since 2011 and how they fared in their next two seasons:

• Odell Beckham Jr.: 24.8 PPG, 21.3, 18.7
• Mike Evans: 16.3, 14.2, 18.8
• Michael Thomas: 17.3, 16.2, 20.0
• Justin Jefferson: 16.9, 19.5, 21.5
• Ja'Marr Chase: 18.0, 20.5, 16.4
• Puka Nacua: 17.6, 18.8

When players post WR1 numbers as rookies, it is usually an excellent sign for future production. Nabers and Thomas are great late Round 1 picks this year.

Note: Consensus ADP is an average across ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, RTSports, and Underdog.

For a quick reference guide for WR1, WR2, and WR3 points per game since 2011, see below:

WR1: 16+ PPG
WR2: 13.5 to 15.9
WR3: 11.5 to 13.4

Early WR Breakout Candidates

Ladd McConkey | Chargers

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR2 (WR1 most of rookie season)
• Consensus ADP: WR11, Mid-to-late Round 2 pick on most sites

McConkey averaged 14.9 points in 2025, but he didn't take over a starting role in two-wide sets until Week 3. From Week 3 through the Chargers' Wild Card contest (15 games), he averaged 16.9 points per contest and notched a 26% target share with a 77 Utilization Score.

McConkey also sported a 2.38 YPRR, which is a WR1-worthy mark based on data since 2011, and an astounding number for a rookie. That mark bested Nabers' (2.17), ranking 11th in the NFL. Here are the other rookies who have reached a 2.30 YPRR or higher:

• Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75)
• A.J. Brown (2.67)
• Justin Jefferson (2.66)
• Puka Nacua (2.59)
• Ja'Marr Chase (2.51)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (2.45)
• Chris Olave (2.42)
• Rashee Rice (2.39)

Brown, Olave, and Rice were the others to post WR2 finishes in Year 1.

The Chargers added Tre Harris in Round 2 of the NFL Draft to battle with Quentin Johnston and Mike Williams for the WR2 role. While one of those options could surprise us with a decent target share, McConkey projects as the apple of Justin Herbert's eye in 2025.

McConkey's range of outcomes in our ceiling-floor model is appealing, but it assumes I am getting his median projection correct.

• Floor: 12.7 (WR3)
• Median: 16.1 (WR1)
• Ceiling: 20.9 (WR1)

Since 2011, receivers with similar profiles to McConkey have fared well, with 58% reaching WR1 or WR2 status.

• WR1 finishes (16+ PPG): 33%
• WR2 finishes (13.5 to 15.9): 25%
• WR3 finishes (11.5 to 13.4): 8%

Brandin Cooks, Terry McLaurin, and Jaylen Waddle all profiled similarly to McConkey (minus elite YPRR) as rookies but remained WR2s in their second year.

Final Verdict: McConkey is my favorite WR1 breakout candidate, making him worthy of a Round 2 pick, but the market is hip to his upside, sapping some of the value. Still, he is my most-drafted WR inside the first two rounds through 36 drafts (19%).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR2 (WR1 late in Year 2)
• Consensus ADP: WR14, Mid-Round 3 pick on most sites

Smith-Njigba notched a lowly 8.8 points per game as a rookie (WR5), but got things back on track with 14.9 to land a WR2 rebound in Year 2. He was particularly effective after an injury kept DK Metcalf off the field in Weeks 8 and 9, perhaps allowing the young wideout to gel with Geno Smith at a new level.

• Weeks 1 to 7: 21% target share, 1.10 YPRR, 13.4 PPG
• Weeks 8 to 18: 27% target share, 2.41 YPRR, 17.7 PPG

The 2025 season brings drastic changes to the Seahawks' offense.

• New offensive coordinator: Klint Kubiak replaces Ryan Grubb
• New quarterback: Sam Darnold replaces Smith
• New WR: Cooper Kupp replaces Metcalf

It's hard to know how these changes will affect JSN, but Sam Darnold is willing to push the ball into tight coverage like Smith. Smith-Njigba often wins in small windows when working downfield (57 ESPN Open Score), so it is an important trait. Kupp could challenge the third-year receiver for looks underneath, but is 32 and has battled injuries the last two years. Even if Kupp bounces back, this should be a highly consolidated offense, and there isn't a third target earner on the roster.

Smith-Njigba's range of outcomes in the ceiling-floor model compares well to McConkey's:

• Floor: 11.8 (WR3)
• Median: 15 (WR2)
• Ceiling: 20.3 (WR1)

Receivers with similar historical profiles to Smith-Njigba have garnered a WR2 or better season 64% of the time (19 of 30).

• WR1 finishes (16+ PPG): 27%
• WR2 finishes (13.5 to 15.9): 37%
• WR3 finishes (11.5 to 13.4): 17%

Final Verdict: Smith-Njigba offers a similar profile to McConkey, a round later, which makes him an excellent breakout candidate to target. He is my third-most drafted WR inside the first three rounds through 36 drafts (17%).

Marvin Harrison Jr. | Cardinals

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR3
• Consensus ADP: WR18, Mid-Round 3 to Round 4 pick

Harrison averaged 11.7 points per game, barely sneaking in a WR3 finish after costing drafters a Round 2 pick as a rookie. If we exclude his Week 6 game, when he only played 15% of the snaps due to a concussion, his average was 12.4 (WR3).

If we go to the underlying data points for assistance, Harrison did flash some WR2-level data points.

• Targets: 23% (WR2-worthy)
• Air Yards: 43% (WR1-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.63 (WR4-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 77.2 (WR2-worthy)
• Man targets per route run (TPRR): 28% (WR1-worthy)

It is also important to point out that Year 2 receivers coming off of a WR2 finish as rookies didn't fare dramatically better than WR3 finishers.

• WR2 rookies in Year 2: 33% WR1, 25% WR2, 8% WR3
• WR3 rookies in Year 2: 26% WR1, 43% WR2, 17% WR3

We have seen a WR2 or better finish from 69% of the WR3 comp group.

However, it is worth noting that some of those WR3s who leaped to WR1 status received help from departing teammates (e.g., Mike Wallace for Jarvis Landry, Jeremy Maclin for Tyreek Hill, and T.J. Hockenson, who was traded mid-season, for Amon-Ra St. Brown). Still, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, and DK Metcalf all got there on static offenses.

How is that for some conflicting data points? Isn't fantasy football fun?

The Cardinals' offense will look almost the same as last year from a personnel standpoint, which isn't all that bad from my perspective. While I would love more creativity from Drew Petzing to give Harrison some easy wins, the only target competition is Trey McBride. This has the chance to be a highly consolidated offense.

Harrison's range of outcomes in the ceiling-floor model:

• Floor: 10.4 (WR4)
• Median: 13.4 (WR3 - borderline WR2)
• Ceiling: 18.1 (WR1)

Final Verdict: Harrison is slightly overpriced on Underdog as the WR15, but as the WR19 on ESPN, Yahoo, and RTSports in Round 4, he is a reasonable target.

Xavier Worthy | Chiefs

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR4 (WR1 late as a rookie)
• Consensus ADP: WR24, Round 5

Worthy averaged 10.7 points per game in the regular season, delivering a WR4 finish. However, he came on strong once given a full-time role. He barely played in Week 18 with starters resting, but in the other seven games from Week 14 through the Super Bowl, he averaged an 87% route participation and put up considerable numbers.

• PPG: 19.0 (WR1-worthy … no pun intended, haha)
• Targets: 25% (WR1-worthy)
• Air Yards: 21% (WR5-worthy)
• YPRR: 2.13 (WR2-worthy)

He also averaged 1.1 rushing attempts per game over that stretch, as the No. 1 playmaker for the Chiefs. There was virtually no competition for targets outside of an aging Travis Kelce, who was offering very little after the catch when given opportunities.

We don't know how the Chiefs will handle Worthy in 2025, but Rashee Rice is likely to challenge for many of the underneath looks. Worthy challenged defenders deep in college on 28% of his targets, but his intermediate game will need to develop further if Rice regains the gimme looks. 

Still, we sometimes get too far in the weeds on these sorts of issues. A year ago at this time, the question was how Ladd McConkey would put up fantasy points in a run-first offense where he might only play in three-wide receiver sets. The bottom line is that Worthy made a big impression to finish 2024, and we shouldn't ignore that. There are many paths to success for him—especially in an offense with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid pulling the strings.

The ceiling-floor model feels pretty, pretty, pretty good about Worthy's upside.

• Floor: 10.0 (WR4)
• Median: 13.1 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 19.1 (WR1)

Worthy's closest comparisons achieved a WR2 or better finish 69% of the time in Year 2 and rode the escalator to WR1 status 26% of the time.

Final verdict: Worthy grades out in a similar range to Harrison as a breakout candidate, but his consensus ADP is 20 picks later. The former Longhorn is a priority breakout target.

Zay Flowers | Ravens

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR3
• Consensus ADP: WR26, Round 5

Flowers tallied WR3 finishes in back-to-back seasons with 12.8 and 12.3 points per game. However, he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 17 that limited his activity, and he was knocked out of the Week 18 game due to a knee injury. In his 15 healthy games, Flowers averaged 13.4 points (borderline WR2).

We also saw progress from Flowers in multiple underlying categories in Year 2.

• Targets: 25% → 27% (WR1-worthy; only healthy games each year)
• Air Yards: 23% → 30% (WR2-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.64 → 2.25 (WR1-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 73.9 → 83.8 (WR1-worthy)

In an alternate simulation of 2024, Flowers might have made a WR1 jump similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown based on his underlying data. It will be challenging for the Ravens offense to run as smoothly as it did in 2024, but it should remain a quality offense. 

While we like Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, they were 20% and 18% TPRR players, respectively. Flowers should overcome that again, especially given that the two TEs played only 195 pass snaps together. By the way, on those plays, Flowers dominated with a 29% target share. With Rashod Bateman, Flowers had a 31% target share. This isn't a crowded passing attack—Flowers is the focal point.

The bigger challenge is the run-leaning nature of the offense, with a -4% dropback rate below expected (DBOE). The Ravens ran the third-fewest dropbacks last year. Players who operate at Flowers aDOT don't put up big TD numbers—WRs with a similar aDOT and targets per game averaged 4.7 since 2011. Flowers scored four last year.

While we can overstate our ability to predict how an offense will run, the Ravens have an elite dual-threat QB who turns dropbacks into scrambles on a unit that wants to pound the rock anyway. Historically, that has been the formula for a low-pass volume offense.

Our ceiling-floor model places Flowers in a range near Harrison and Worthy.

• Floor: 10.1 (WR4)
• Median: 13.1 (WR3)
• Ceiling: 18.5 (WR1)

The breakout rates for Year 3 receivers without a best-year WR2 finish on their resume aren't great. Only 28% (4 of 14) reached WR1 or WR2 status.

• WR1 finishes (16+ PPG): 14%
• WR2 finishes (13.5 to 15.9): 14%
• WR3 finishes (11.5 to 13.4): 21%

However, the majority of the cohort did not possess the WR1 to WR2 underpinnings like Flowers. Those who did possess some of those traits had a higher hit rate, with four out of five breaking out.

• Chris Godwin and Deebo Samuel → WR1 breakouts
• Antonio Brown and Garrett Wilson → WR2 breakouts
• Kendall Wright → WR3 finish

Final Verdict: Flowers flashed WR1-worthy traits last season, and that keeps the light on for a breakout. The Ravens' run-heavy ways might make a WR1 blowup difficult, but it is in play, and a WR2 finish is well within reach. Once again, the market has a pretty accurate price, with Flowers as a borderline WR2 in drafts.

Rome Odunze | Bears

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR5
• Consensus ADP: WR37, Round 7

Odunze averaged a pitiful 8.6 points in his rookie year—the third-worst mark for any top 10 NFL Draft selection to play at least eight games since 2011. Only Corey Davis (6.5) and Mike Williams (2.1) were worse.

He was given a full-time role immediately, with a 91% route participation rate, but was unable to register any other high-end underlying data points.

• Targets: 19% (WR4-worthy)
• Air Yards: 33% (WR2-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.18 (WR7-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 65.3 (WR7-worthy)

The Bears' offense could look dramatically different in 2025 with Ben Johnson calling plays, but Caleb Williams must take a big step forward. Keenan Allen and his 27% targets are up for grabs, but Chicago drafted pass catchers in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden Jr. with their first two picks in the NFL Draft.

We did get one boom game (23.4 points) from Odunze last season when Allen missed Weeks 2 and 3.

Odunze comes out as a player with WR2 upside in the ceiling-floor model.

• Floor: 8.4 (WR6)
• Median: 10.9 (WR4)
• Ceiling: 15.6 (WR2)

The historical hit-rate data for similar players (18) agree, while the rates are low, the best-case scenarios have been WR2 finishes.

• WR1 finishes (16+ PPG): 0%
• WR2 finishes (13.5 to 15.9): 33%
• WR3 finishes (11.5 to 13.4): 17%

DeAndre Hopkins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenny Golladay, John Brown, Courtland Sutton, and Allen Hurns (lol) bucked the odds to notch WR2 campaigns.

Final Verdict: We have seen 50% of Odunze's comps notch a WR2 or WR3 season, and he is priced as a low-end WR3. Not a ton of value, but a Round 7 pick isn't going to destroy your draft if you miss, which makes it palatable.

Jayden Reed | Packers

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR46, Round 10

Reed averaged 11.5 points (WR3) in 2024, which was a step down from his 13.5 (WR2) as a rookie. He was slightly more productive in games where Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson were out or limited, matching his 2023 13.5 points per game.

To this point, the Packers have been unwilling to give Reed a full-time role, limiting him to a 74% route participation last year. However, he has one strong TPRR year and two good YPRR seasons under his belt.

• Targets: 17% → 17% (WR5-worthy)
• TPRR: 23% → 19% (WR2- and WR3-worthy)
• Air Yards: 20% → 16% (WR6 worthy)
• YPRR: 2.05 →  2.25 (WR2- and WR1-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 76.0 → 70.1 (WR2- and WR3-worthy)

Those data points align with the fantasy production to this point, but the YPRR points toward potential upside if Reed can ever get on the field in two-WR sets. While we would rather have more routes, Reed's 11 (3%) and 20 rushing attempts (4%) are a bonus.

The Packers added a first-round WR in Matthew Golden. Christian Watson is recovering from a Week 18 ACL injury, placing the first half or more of his season in jeopardy, and Doubs hasn't shown to be a high-end target earner. Even with the arrival of Golden, it would make sense to give Reed more opportunities, but his playing time is impossible to predict. 

On a positive note, the Packers should pass more in 2025, and Jordan Love flashed upside in 2023. Their 52% dropback rate ranked third-lowest last year, a number rarely achieved in consecutive years without a running quarterback. They were at 61% in 2023, and I have them projected for 57%.

In the floor-ceiling model, Reed compares favorably versus many names in the same range of the draft and offers WR1 upside.

• Floor: 8.2 (WR6)
• Median: 10.8 (WR4)
• Ceiling: 16.4 (WR1)

This may sound off, but Reed's historical comps fall within the same range as Smith-Njigba. 

He is a Year 3 WR with one WR2 finish on his resume. 

• WR1 finishes (16+ PPG): 27%
• WR2 finishes (13.5 to 15.9): 37%
• WR3 finishes (11.5 to 13.4): 17%

Despite the lack of an intense stretch like JSN demonstrated in Year 2, Reed's YPRR data is strong. They are similar players; Reed just needs more routes, and if that happens along with a Packers increase in pass attempts, Reed or Golden will likely be one of the steals of 2025 fantasy drafts.

Final Verdict: Reed is a high-priority target; he offers a strong breakout profile, especially considering the market's overconfidence in his role remaining static.

Jordan Addison | Vikings

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR2
• Consensus ADP: WR36, Round 7

Addison bumped his average points from 13.0 (WR3) to WR2 territory at 14.2 in Year 2. Most of his underlying data points track with those finishes.

• Targets: 18% → 21% (WR3-worthy)
• Air Yards: 27% → 30% (WR2-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.50 → 1.74 (WR3-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 69.7 → 74,.2 (WR2-worthy)

With Justin Jefferson as the clear-cut WR1, Addison's fantasy production has relied on big plays and touchdowns more than a high-end target share. He will battle T.J. Hockenson for the No. 2 role in the passing game with J.J. McCarthy taking over as the starting quarterback.

Addison is also dealing with a potential suspension due to a DUI arrest from July 2024. His trial is scheduled for July 15th.

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 9.1 (WR6)
• Median: 11.9 (WR4)
• Ceiling: 16.9 (WR2)

Year 3 receivers with a WR2 finish on their resume have recorded a WR2 or better finish 64% of the time (19 of 30), with 27% (8) reaching WR1 lore in Year 3. However, most of the hits from the comp group offered much stronger target, YPRR, and PFF Receiving Grade profiles.

Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and CeeDee Lamb were stronger candidates, but Diontae Johnson and Calvin Ridley were closest comps for Addison, and they notched a WR1 campaign. However, that is a significant difference between a group that went on to dominate and those who have been more like WR2s to WR3s. The other closest comp was Brandin Cooks.

Final Verdict: Addison offers WR1 upside, but his profile looks more like a WR3 when digging deeper. He is a name I don't often target in Round 7.

Josh Downs | Colts

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR3
• Consensus ADP: WR50, Round 10

Downs' average points jumped from 9.2 to 13.1 to land a WR3 finish in his second season. In seven full games with Joe Flacco under center, that number jumped to 15.5.

To this point in his career, he has been limited to three-receiver sets, capping his route participation at 75%. However, his underlying data suggests a dynamic, ascending player.

• Targets: 18% → 26% (WR1-worthy)
• TPRR: 19% → 28% (WR1-worthy)
• Air Yards: 17% → 17% (WR7-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.60 → 2.20 (WR1-worthy
• PFF Receiving Grade: 71.0 → 85.3 (WR1-worthy)

Downs operated primarily underneath last season with a 6.7 aDOT, which is an area that Daniel Jones likes to pepper with targets. Jones as the starter is probably the best case scenario for all the pass catchers, but he isn't a franchise saver. At some point, if healthy, the team will likely want one more look at Anthony Richardson.

The Colts added Tyler Warren, a versatile player around the line of scrimmage, which will increase competition for targets. Michael Pittman Jr. has been a strong target earner for his career as well, so this passing attack is getting crowded.

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 8.2 (WR6)
• Median: 10.6 (WR4)
• Ceiling: 14.5 (WR2)

Downs grades in a very similar range to Flowers from a historical hit rate perspective. While Year 3 guys without a WR2 finish on their resume haven't been great, the ones that have hit have profiled similarly to Downs' in YPRR, TPRR, and PFF Receiving Grade.

Final Verdict: Downs undoubtedly offers upside at his WR50 price tag thanks to his talent profile. However, he will need to run pure to overcome the trifecta of 1) lack of playing time, 2) questionable QB play, and 3) a crowded receiving room.

Ricky Pearsall | 49ers

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR5
• Consensus ADP: WR45, Round 9

Pearsall averaged 8.5 points as a rookie, after suffering a gunshot wound before the season that kept him out until Week 7. 

His underlying data points weren't strong with a 14% target share, 1.31 YPRR, and a 64.1 PFF receiving grade. However, he did shine in the final two games of the season when given a larger role, with 87% route participation. Over that span, he earned a 22% target share and an 88 Utilization Score on his way to 23.8 points per game.

With Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk's (knee) in question to start the year, Pearsall could pick up where he left off as a key component to the 49ers' passing attack. Once Aiyuk is healthy, things could get murky, but if Pearsall pops early, the team could take their time with Aiyuk, and there could be a slower ramp-up upon his return.

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 8.2 (WR6)
• Median: 10.2 (WR4)
• Ceiling: 15.2 (WR2)

The hit rates for WRs with such a slow start aren't great, but the former Round 1 pick came to a loaded team and dealt with an early-season injury, so his grade is incomplete.

Final Verdict: Pearsall offers early-season value, but carries some risk late in the season when Aiyuk returns. Still in Round 9, betting on a former Round 1 pick that showed out to finish the season on a quality offense is a bet I am willing to sprinkle into the portfolio.

Cedric Tillman | Browns

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR6
• Consensus ADP: WR67, Round 15

We only got four healthy games from Tillman after the trade of Amari Cooper last season, but they were terrific. The former Round 3 NFL Draft pick averaged 18.1 points.

Over that span, he out-targeted Jerry Jeudy 22% (WR2-worthy) to 20% and gobbled up 31% (WR2-worthy) of the air yards and 40% of the endzone targets. Sure, Jameis Winston is a helluva drug for WRs, but Tillman did his part, demonstrating a strong ceiling.

Jeudy is locked into playing time, but Tillman pencils in as the No. 2 heading into camp. Diontae Johnson is a wild card—he has the target-earning talent to earn more playing time, but he could also self-implode. Based on his strong showing, I have Tillman projected for an 87% route participation.

The quarterback situation should remain fluid, but Flacco is capable of supporting fantasy-relevant weapons, and they have two backup options between draft picks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 7.9 (WR6)
• Median: 10.3 (WR4)
• Ceiling: 14.3 (WR2)

Historical hit rates:

• WR1: 17% (2 of 14) → Eric Decker, Nico Collins (both got QB upgrades in Peyton Manning and C.J. Stroud)
• WR2: 7%: (1 of 14)
• WR3: 17% (2 of 14)

Final verdict: Tillman is one of my most-drafted late-round receivers (14%). He has a solid path to playing time opposite of an erratic performer in Jeudy and flashed boom potential last year.

Keon Coleman | Bills

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR6
• Consensus ADP: WR51, Round 10

Keon Coleman suffered a Week 9 wrist injury that may have hampered his second half of he season. Unfortunately, he was gift-wrapped a full-time role early in the season and was unable to get much going with 9.1 points per game before injury.

In all, Coleman notched six games with a route participation of 80% or higher. He averaged only 8.2 fantasy points in those games. 

Season data:

• Targets: 13% (WR6-worthy)
• TPRR: 17% (WR5-worthy)
• Man TPRR: 26% (WR2-worthy)
• Air Yards: 27% (WR3-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.71 (WR4-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 69.4 (WR4-worthy)

At Florida State, the big-bodied WR did much of his best work from the slot, but on a Bills team filled with inside options, he operated outside 89% of the time. That is unlikely to change in 2025 with Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Elijah Moore all vying for slot reps. On a positive note, no one has stepped forward as a target bully in Buffalo, leaving the door open for Coleman.

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 6.3 (WR7+)
• Median: 8.4 (WR6)
• Ceiling: 12.2 (WR3)

Historical hit rates:

• WR1: 1 of 15 (7%) → Alshon Jeffery (7.9 PPG, 18% TPRR, 1.41 YPRR)
• WR2: 1 of 15 (7%) → Michael Pittman Jr.
• WR3: 4 of 15 (27%) → Robbie Chosen, Michael Floyd, Kenny Stills, Jamison Crowder

Alshon Jeffery and Michael Pittman are similar archetype players to Coleman stylistically and analytically. This is a Lloyd Christmas special.

Final Verdict: The odds are long, but Coleman is the WR51 off the board. He isn't someone to build a portfolio around, but you should have a little exposure.

Quentin Johnston | Chargers

• Year: 3
• Previous high: WR3
• Consensus ADP: WR71, Round 15

Johnston improved from 5.5 PPG to 11.6 in his second year. While his playing time was a bit unpredictable, he was productive in six games where he played closer to a full-time role. In contests with an 85% route rate or higher, he posted 14.9 points per game.

Johnston made improvements across the board in Year 2.

• Targets: 11% → 22% (WR2-worthy)
• TPRR: 13% → 22% (WR2-worthy)
• Man TPRR: 12% → 28% (WR1 worthy)
• Air Yards: 18% → 28% (WR3-worthy)
• YPRR: 0.88 → 1.77 (WR3-worthy
• PFF Receiving Grade: 58.7 → 71.6 (WR3-worthy)

The Chargers added Tre Harris in Round 2 and signed Mike Williams to compete, but if the former Round 1 pick can lock down the No. 2 role in camp, he has shown upside when given playing time. Currently, I have QJ projected for a 65% route participation, rotating with Harris (65%) mostly and a dash of Williams (40%).

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 6.1 (WR7+)
• Median: 8.1 (WR6)
• Ceiling: 12.2 (WR3)

Historical hit rates:

• WR1: 2 of 14 (14%)
• WR2: 2 of 14 (14%)
• WR3: 3 of 14 (21%)

Final Verdict: While it may not feel right, Johnston is similar to Flowers and Reed. His underlyings are slightly less appealing, but he made significant strides in Year 2. With a Round 15 price tag, he is worth a dart, and you can cut him early if the playing time isn't there.

Xavier Legette | Panthers

• Year: 2
• Previous high: WR6
• Consensus ADP: WR65, Round 14

The Round 2 rookie delivered 7.8 points per game, but he improved slightly after the departure of Diontae Johnson in Week 7. He picked up a groin, hip, and wrist injuries, which spoiled the last four weeks of the season, but before that, he had a 94% route participation and produced 9.1 points per game (WR5). While that isn't great, he posted a respectable 21% target share (WR3-worthy).

Season data: 

• Targets: 17% (WR5-worthy)
• TPRR: 19% (WR4-worthy)
• Air Yards: 25% (WR4-worthy)
• YPRR: 1.19 YPRR (WR7-worthy)
• PFF Receiving Grade: 59.4 (WR7-worthy)

The Panthers added Tetairoa McMillan in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, which could hamper Legette's upside, but the door is wide open for a No. 2 target-earner to step forward in the offense. Adam Thielen is the early-season favorite, but at age 34, he remains an age-cliff candidate. Jalen Coker also flashed as a rookie and will compete with Legette for routes.

Ceiling-floor model projections:

• Floor: 6.1 (WR7+)
• Median: 8.1 (WR6)
• Ceiling: 12.4 (WR3)

Historical hit rates (same as Keon Coleman)

• WR1: 1 of 15 (7%)
• WR2: 1 of 15 (7%)
• WR3: 4 of 15 (27%)

Legette ranks below Coleman because he is attached to Bryce Young rather than Josh Allen, and the Panthers added big-time competition in McMillan in Round 1.

Final Verdict: Legette is a long-shot breakout dart for 2025, but it's affordable to take a swing on in Round 14.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jalen Coker | Panthers | Year 2 | WR6

  • PPG: 10.5 PPG (WR4-worthy) after Diontae Johnson's departure

  • TPRR: 18% (WR5-worthy)
  • YPRR: 1.66 (WR4-worthy)
  • Full-time role starting in Week 10 (missed games returned W15)
• Dontayvion Wicks | Packers | Year 3 | WR6

  • TPRR: 23% (two years → WR2-worthy)

  • YPRR: 1.72 (two years → WR4-worthy)
• Roman Wilson | Steelers | Year 2 | Injury

  • Round 3 NFL Draft Pick

• Adonai Mitchell | Colts | Year 2 | WR7+

  • Round 2 NFL Draft Pick

  • TPRR: 25% (WR1-worthy)
  • YPRR: 1.51 (WR5-worthy)

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