A Shocking Late-Scratch on Monday Night Football
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy, we dive into Week 1 utilization, the best waiver wire targets, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
MNF started out with a shocker: Christian McCaffrey was a surprise inactive after his calf didn’t feel great in warmups.
The 1.01 overall pick missing his first game (not to mention speculation that he could miss next week too) is certainly cause for alarm.
We got a ton of injuries to update you on today—check the Watercooler for a full roundup and Kendall’s waiver column for the action items (hello, Jordan Mason)—but before we do that I need to offer a mea culpa …
I was on record this summer as refusing to fall for Jameson Williams hype again.
A fool me once, fool me twice kind of thing…
Well, I should have been more open to getting fooled again because Williams looked like a revelation in the Lions’ SNF opener.
He ran 94% of the routes and earned 30% of the targets, while racking up 24.4 PPR points.
When sorting by our brand-new Utilization Score (which is a metric to help predict future fantasy performance), you’ll notice his name alongside some absurd WR company:
Dan Campbell sang his praises all offseason and I really wish I would have done a better job believing him.
The Jamo breakout is here and it’s glorious.
I might not have enough of him in redraft, but you better believe that I’ll be getting even on him in DFS contests over the coming weeks.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: Week 1 trends
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 2 Waiver Wire
- Watercooler: Injury news
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report
UTILIZATION REPORT: Week 1 Takeaways
🚀 Bijan Robinson: Cleared for liftoff.
Despite ranking as the 15th-best fantasy performer at RB in Week 1, Mr. Robinson secured the No. 1 Utilization Score (9.3). He dominated in all utilization phases, handling 82% of attempts and posting an 82% route participation rate with a 23% target share.
While expecting a 90% snap share for the season isn't realistic, this tells us Robinson is clearly ahead of Tyler Allgeier. Since 2020, here are the backs who have reached a 9.0 Utilization Score or better, along with their fantasy points per game.
- Christian McCaffrey (2020): 9.8, 30.1
- Christian McCaffrey (2023): 9.6, 25.2
- Najee Harris (2021): 9.4, 16.9
- Saquon Barkley (2022): 9.3, 17.7
- Christian McCaffrey (2023): 9.3, 19.6
- Dalvin Cook (2020): 9.1, 24.1
- Kyren Williams (2023): 9.1, 20.3
Considering this list, Robinson's Week 1 performance looks more like his floor. Achieving CMC status is never easy, but Robinson has the talent profile and the robust utilization to give it a shot this season.
Bijan Robinson is among the top two players in fantasy football in all formats. Your local Robinson manager isn't going to let him go easy, but the 16 points in Week 1 might make it possible. Kick the tires, and don't be afraid to make a substantial offer.
👜 Keenan Allen still has WR1 upside in his bag.
If Week 1 were any indication, the 32-year-old vet still knows how to cook opposing defensive backs. Allen led the Bears with a 33% target share and a 50% air-yard share.
Fantasy managers aren't happy about Allen's 6.9 PPR points in Week 1, but he could have had a much bigger day. He dropped an easy TD and missed another potential TD where he was overthrown. Drops and overthrows are going to happen—the key is intent—and Allen demonstrated he can still go out and earn targets and air yards.
Allen missed a series at the end of the game after an apparent leg or foot injury that we must monitor. Early indications are that he is OK, but Rome Odunze needs an MRI due to a knee injury—which would bolster Allen's status further. The veteran is a high-risk player due to his age and injury history, but he should be in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes when healthy.
Allen UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 status and morphs into a WR1 if Odunze misses time.
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Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups
Waiver Wire Darling of the Week … Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens (28% rostered; 9.9 Utilization Score)
What the HECK is going on? Why did I pay up for Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews if they were going to do nothing! Why isn't any tight end scoring?!
This was probably your internal (or external) monologue during Week 1, and it is totally fair and valid. Only one tight end had more than 60 receiving yards (Isaiah Likely) AND IT WAS THE ONE ON A LOT OF BENCHES.
Via CBS:
*sigh*
Let's talk about Isaiah Likely.
Yeah, we all saw this coming for waiver wire articles. Mark Andrews managers woke up sweaty and screaming from nightmares featuring Isaiah Likely all Thursday night. Likely finished with nine receptions, 111 yards, one touchdown, and 26.10 fantasy points — Andrews finished with two receptions for 14 yards.
It was not the night we expected, but Andrews managers should not panic (too much). This is an incredible breakdown about why, but essentially the Chiefs made sure to take Andrews out of the game plan. I also want to point out that Andrews was in a car accident and missed a little over two weeks of practice. But, nonetheless, Likely should not be on waivers.
We heard a lot of chatter during the offseason about the Ravens utilizing more 12-personnel and they did just that. According to PFF, Likely and Andrews played 32 snaps out of 12 personnel together (the most snaps taken together in a game).
He had a 69% route participation and a 30% target share on Thursday night. Dwain McFarland has Likely projected for 77 targets, 55 receptions, 637 yards, and five touchdowns the rest of the way.
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🚨 Introducing: The Utilization Score. Shoutout to Dwain.
🚑️ Important injury updates: Rome Odunze, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, Hollywood Brown, Jordan Addison, and Puka Nacua.
🎯 Do you like targets? Then I hope you have this guy on your team.
🥊 Things got heated in the LAC/LV game. Though no one is getting suspended.
🤦 This doesn’t feel like something you should need to confirm? Oof.
⚾️ The KC Royals play in a Guillotine league. Super cool.
Week 1 Sheesh Report
by Ian Hartitz
Week 1 has come and gone. 16 NFL games brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 1 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
Pass-catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
Pass-catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the one-yard line, but didn’t score
Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
Other random sh*t tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
First: The "Sheesh-VP" of Week 1. The "Sheesher of the Week" if you will. The Great Sheesh-ino. The Sultan of Sheesh. OK, sorry, yeah: The award for the player least responsible for having an absolute dud in the box score goes to …
Colts WR AD Mitchell … SHEESH
You've probably seen Anthony Richardson's absurd 60-yard TD to Alec Pierce by now. It was literally off the charts and deserves plenty of praise.
But here's something the mainstream media hasn't told you about: Rookie Colts WR A.D. Mitchell's box score (1 reception-2 yards-0 TD) is a LIE.
Kind of: That box score technically really did happen, but the absence of not one, not two, but three catchable deep balls left the 2024 NFL Draft's 57th overall pick with a whole lot of nothing instead of multiple trips into the end zone.
An illegal contact penalty slowed down Mitchell in what resulted in his second miss (second clip in video), and the third miss was unlikely to go for six points due to the safety coming over the top. Still, it's not unreasonable to believe that even somewhat accurate passes from Richardson could have led to an additional 140 extra yards and two TDs.
Instead: Sheesh. Here's to hoping that next week the Colts' Wild Thing under center can save some of his well-placed deep balls for the team's talented rookie. Mitchell's 131 air yards were the eighth-highest mark of Week 1 when including penalties; he's a great under-the-radar option on the waiver wire (hopefully) set for positive regression and is only rostered in 32% of Yahoo leagues at the moment.
Speaking of air yards …