Chasing Records, Christmas Wishes, and More For Week 17

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

If you’ll allow us a quick moment of mush, we wanted to say thank you for spending your time with us this year, and send season’s greetings and happy holiday wishes to you and yours — however and wherever you celebrate.

In today’s newsletter, we have some fun links, including weekly rankings (championship week on Christmas? Bah!), analysis for today’s games (on Netflix!), and some general assorted holiday cheer.

The best Christmas gift this year? Jameis Winston. He arrived at just the right time, he was must-see TV, he said all the right (unexpected) things, and he turned Jerry Jeudy into a beast. So, in honor of the Netflix games today, we re-imagined some holiday classics with Winston as the protagonist.

It’s a Winstonful Life: Jameis wonders aloud if things would be better had he never signed with the Browns. A guardian angel shows him what a disaster the team—and Cedric Tillman—would be without him. He sees the light and discovers “Jeudy’s petals” in his sideline jacket pocket just as snow falls. He runs back to the stadium gleefully greeting Cleveland landmarks along the way.

Jameis, Actually: Jameis is elected prime minister and fixes all the country’s problems while also starting new ones, but jokingly apologizes about them in press conferences to an adoring public. In a separate storyline, Sam Darnold teaches himself how to play drums in two weeks to impress a girl.

Christmas in Cleveland: Jameis lies to a dialed-out Browns owner about still being the starting QB and has to put on a giant charade to convince him it’s true, even enlisting his uncle Felix to announce him as the starter from the press box before the game.

We could go on. We’ll stop and get you to your advice …

Psst … one more note … Guillotine League waivers run at NOON EST today, not the normal 3 PM EST (thanks to the two-game slate, bah!). Remember to get your bids in!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Freedman’s Favorites: Top Plays for Week 17
Watercooler: QBs rising up the NFL Draft board
Ian’s Christmas Wishlist: Records are meant to be broken

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 17

Here are three of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 17. Check out his full article and rankings for more.

Jayden Daniels (Commanders) vs. Falcons

Jayden Daniels now is a -20000 Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite following Week 16, which saw him pass for 258 yards and five TDs and rush for 81 yards in a last-minute come-from-behind 36-33 victory over the Eagles, who entered the game with one of the best defenses in football.

No. 1 among all starting QBs with a 12% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report), Daniels has a high weekly floor, and his matchup this week gives him a vaulted ceiling.

The Falcons are No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+3.7).

James Cook (Bills) vs. Jets

Since the Week 12 bye, the usage numbers for James Cook look bad.

Snap Rate: 43%
Rush Share: 43%
Route Rate: 36%

Cook is in a full-blown committee with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Over the past four weeks, he's the No. 30 RB in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (6.1).

Even so, he still has 408 yards and five TDs on 45 carries and seven targets in four games since the bye, and he has impressed as a home favorite since last season (1,597 yards, 10 TDs in 17 games).

Cook missed Week 6 against the Jets, but he had 39 opportunities in two games against them last year. I'm not worried about Cook's workload.

Davante Adams (Jets) at Bills

I don't know if the Jets should want to keep QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams next season … but I do know that Rodgers in four games since the Week 12 bye has endowed Adams with 48 targets, which he has converted into 30-441-5 receiving with a two-point conversion.

Those are some old-school Davante numbers.

In the secondary, the Bills might be without No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee), SS Damar Hamlin (back, ribs), and FS Taylor Rapp (neck), all of whom missed last week.

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES FOR WEEK 17

The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.

Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.

LEARN MORE

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🤝 11 risers for the NFL draft. Two QBs surging up the board.

🪓 The Chopionship is here … get up to speed on playoff Guillotine League rules.

👑 They say defense wins championships. Well, then here are your keys to the crown.

🧐 Video link here

🤔 Cooterdoodle and Jake Trowbridge have some opinions on league punishments.

📆 Christmas wagering? You’ve earned it. Here are our favorite bets for today’s games.

🤹Want an underrated, heartwarming 22-minute Christmas movie from 1945? “Star in the Night” is on YouTube. Thank us later.

Ian’s Christmas Wishes For Week 17

Wish No. 1: Saquon Barkley takes down Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record

Nothing against the Hall of Famer, but Dickerson's 2,105-yard mark is in sight! Let's get this thing! Already at 1,838, Barkley is a manageable (for him) 268 yards away from history. Hell, he racked up 255 in Week 12 alone against the Rams earlier this season.

Nick Sirianni doesn't exactly strike me as the type of coach to not gun for records, and it hardly seems like their remaining two home spots are the biggest obstacles in the world:

Week 17 vs. Cowboys: Dead last in EPA allowed per rush this season, even the second-half return of all-world EDGE Micah Parsons hasn't fixed this defense's long-time deficiency against the run. Barkley surprisingly only received 14 carries in his first relative dud (14-66-0 rushing) against this defense back in Week 10; don't be surprised if that carry total is doubled this time around.

Week 18 vs. Giants: A revenge game against the Giants to potentially break the all-time single-season rushing record? And you SERIOUSLY think the NFL isn't scripted???

While Barkley has already easily surpassed his contract incentives, there are still plenty of players who have a LOT to play for. As Geoff Ulrich pointed out in his great article on contract incentives and player milestones, guys like Tony Pollard and J.K. Dobbins could try extra hard to gut through existing injuries.

Still, there's another RB fantasy managers REALLY need to come through this week.

Wish No. 2: Bucky Irving fulfills his prophecy and leads fantasy managers to championship glory

Just the RB44 in pre-draft ADP; Irving wasn't anything more than a fun late-round handcuff in August as a day-three pick fully expected to work behind incumbent starter Rachaad White.

Fast forward roughly a million broken tackles, and Irving is the captain now.

It'd make sense if offensive coordinator Liam Coen doesn't exactly go out of his way to correct this split after White lost a fumble to ice the Bucs' Sunday night loss to the Cowboys.

And why would they? With all due respect to White, who is a plus receiving threat and putting up career-best efficiency numbers on the ground, Irving has emerged as one of the league's most lethal ball carriers.

Irving among 40 RBs with 100-plus carries:

Yards per carry: 5.5 (No. 3)
Yards after contact per carry: 4.2 (No. 1)
Yards per route run: 1.6 (No. 4)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 28% (No. 4)
Explosive run rate: 12.5% (No. 10)

Bucky couldn't ask for a better matchup against the league's single-worst fantasy defense against RBs. The rookie torched this group for a season-high 152 yards at the beginning of December. Let's do it again with the fantasy season on the line, please.

5 MORE CHRISTMAS WISHES FOR WEEK 17