Hide your kids, hide your wife: Week 1 is officially here. It's time to win a fantasy matchup, people!

What follows are my abbreviated early Week 1 fantasy football rankings (PPR) along with some key questions and answers ahead of the season's first slate of action. Note that the referenced 2024 ranks refer to PPR per-game scoring. Check out our Fantasy Life Rankings for full ranks from our squad of alleged expert rankers (code "Ian" for 20% off!).

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings - Early Look

Quarterback

Are we positive we'll be getting the same Baker Mayfield in 2025?

On the one hand, Baker has been pretty awesome over the last two seasons on his way to throwing for an NFL-high 69 TDs (nice).

On the other hand, his 2025 environment has several different challenges that he must overcome:

• Wunderkind OC Liam Coen took his talents to the Jaguars.
• LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) and WR Chris Godwin (ankle) are expected to miss the first month of the season.
• The regression Gods could be coming for Mayfield in both the passing (career-high 7.2% pass TD rate in 2024) and rushing (career-high 22.2 rush yards per game) departments.

A matchup against a Falcons defense that Mayfield shredded for six TDs last season isn't one to be scared of; just realize I'm hesitant in immediately treating the 30-year-old gunslinger as the top-five fantasy option that he finished 2024 as.

Does Drake Maye deserve immediate QB1 treatment?

Well, at least for this week against the Raiders' reigning 25th-ranked scoring defense—I'm going with yes!

It'd make sense if this Las Vegas squad is feistier in general on both sides of the football under the ageless Pete Carroll, but ultimately I'm buying into Maye thanks to the pretty ridiculous counting numbers he managed to sustain as a rookie inside arguably the league's single-least QB-friendly environment.

Seriously: Three appearances with under 31% of the offense's snaps skew the per-game numbers a bit, but accounting for this gave the rookie stellar averages of 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game. Giving Maye the benefit of the doubt, here are the only other QBs to clear 220 pass and 35 rush yards per game in a single season in the Super Bowl era (min. eight starts):

• Cam Newton (x4)
• Lamar Jackson (x3)
• Jalen Hurts (x2)
• Josh Allen (x2)
• Mike Vick (x2)
• Daunte Culpepper (x2)
• Randall Cunningham (x2)
• Kyler Murray (x1)
• Russell Wilson (x1)
• Robert Griffin III (x1)
• Donovan McNabb (x1)
• Steve Young (x1)

Note that Jayden Daniels also would have qualified if you remove his two sub-50% snap games from last season. Either way: That's pretty damn great company!

I can't guarantee Maye will be a staple inside the position's top 12, but he is this week with many of the position's QB2 options facing some rough matchups.

Best of the rest

QB13 Justin Fields: An immediate Week 1 revenge game against the Steelers is hardly ideal, considering T.J. Watt and company held opposing QBs to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game last season. Still, high-volume duel-threat QBs simply don't make a habit of overly busting in fantasy land, and Fantasy Life projections have Fields locked into one of the position's single-heaviest rushing roles.

QB15 Trevor Lawrence: One of the bigger winners of the offseason should now have one of the league's better play-callers and WR tandems at his disposal. Throw in a tantalizing Week 1 matchup against the Panthers' reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense, and I'm throwing T-Law into the top 15 in the hopes that the QB12 in fantasy points per game during the 2022 and 2023 seasons starts to at least come close to living up to his original "generational" billing.

QB22 Bryce Young: Speaking of that sneaky fun Panthers-Jaguars game: Can Young build off his rather awesome second half of 2024? The 2023 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick averaged a robust 18.9 fantasy points per game (QB13) during Weeks 8-18 and was last seen pulling off some slick Steph Curry-level shit. I'm doubtful that Young's high-end rushing excellence will continue, but then again, perhaps we could see newfound passing heights thanks to Tetairoa McMillan.

QB25 Joe Flacco: One early lesson we should try to follow in 2025: Start people who are playing against the Bengals. Now, Flacco's ranking reflects the reality that we can't go all in here in one-QB leagues, but for desperate superflex managers and/or DFS grinders: Don't underestimate an early-season boom from the Browns' 40-year-old starter. Consider: Flacco has averaged 283.4 passing yards per game in his 13 extended appearances over the last two seasons–a mark which would rank first ahead of Jared Goff (270.7) and Joe Burrow (267.7)!

Running Back

Will Bucky Irving and Chase Brown's late-season usage persist into 2025?

It'd be pretty cool if it did:

• Rachaad White was basically benched after his fourth-quarter fumble in Week 16. After that? Bucky racked up 24, 24, and 19 combined carries and targets—good for three of his top-five highest-usage games of the entire year!
• Brown played on an elite 85% of the offense's snaps during the second half of last season while averaging 20.9 PPR points per game—the fourth-highest mark among all RBs.

It's possible that both offenses look to take a bit off the plate of these RBs now that they're playing in September and not fighting to survive in the later portions of the season, although the other argument is that Irving and Brown could simply be relied on more than ever thanks to their respective clear-cut RB1 statuses in backfields with little else to offer.

For now, both Irving and Brown should be started in lineups of all shapes and sizes without a second thought; just realize there's at least some potential for disappointing usage that could force them out of the top 10 this time next week.

Does James Conner possess multi-TD upside in this spot?

You bet! After all, the Saints allowed a league-high 18 TDs on the ground to opposing RBs last season, and Conner is basically the Cardinals' heart and soul when they get to the goal line. Seriously: The veteran racked up 12 carries inside the five-yard line during his first 16 healthy weeks last year–the rest of the team combined for just *three* such opportunities.

Don't confuse the Cardinals with a juggernaut, but their rushing offense was quietly as good as any outside of Baltimore in 2024.

Arizona sits as 6.5-point road favorites against arguably the worst team in the NFL. I'll be answering pretty much any start/sit question this week with Mr. Conner, who looks poised to (again) handle upwards of 20-plus combined carries and targets during any given week. The man has become the Tyler Lockett of RBs when it comes to his consistent ability to surpass preseason ADP expectations.

Is Josh Jacobs dealing with one of the worst on-paper matchups?

It's not great. The Lions allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs last season, thanks to both 1) Generally scoring a lot of points and forcing opponents into catch-up mode, and 2) Usually deploying a pass-funnel defense that really prioritized slowing down opposing rushing attacks.

This is also a front that should be better than ever after suffering a myriad of injuries throughout last season. Throw in first-round DT Tyleik Williams, and it's fair to downgrade Jacobs in this spot—even if the Packers' bell cow RB should still be started in lineups of most shapes and sizes.

Should Tony Pollard be trusted with Tyjae Spears (ankle, IR) out?

Probably! After all, he was force-fed the ball with Spears completely sidelined or playing less than a quarter of the offense's snaps last season.

• Week 6: 17-93-1 rushing, 3-(-)5-0 receiving, 74% snaps, PPR RB14
• Week 7: 16-61-0 rushing, 2-4-0 receiving, 89%, RB32
• Week 8: 20-94-0 rushing, 3-23-0 receiving, 82%, RB20
• Week 9: 28-128-0 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving, 86%, RB12
• Week 12: 24-119-1 rushing, 3-10-0 receiving, 94%, RB5
• Week 18: 22-62-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 73%, RB38

The Titans spent big in free agency on the offensive line and earned a top-10 preseason ranking from ETR's Brandon Thorn. While the matchup in Mile High isn't ideal, it's tough to overly bicker about any RB poised to potentially breeze past 20 touches–Pollard deserves the benefit of the doubt in most RB2/FLEX decisions this week.

Best of the rest

RB26 Tyrone Tracy: Sure looks like the Giants' lead RB at the moment, a role which led to him playing at least 60% of the offense's snaps in each of the team's final six games. Of course, ball security is job security, and a healthy Cam Skattebo could complicate things in a hurry. I'm tentatively giving Tracy the benefit of the doubt and firing him up as a borderline RB2; just realize this backfield could be volatile on a week-to-week basis.

RB27 RJ Harvey and RB28 J.K. Dobbins: I'm tentatively expecting Dobbins to draw the start, but Harvey still profiles as a good bet to earn plenty of fantasy-friendly pass-game opportunities inside an offense that has been willing to feed the position targets more than just about anyone else despite not having an overly good pass-catching RB over the last few seasons. We'll have a better idea of this split this time next week. For now, both RBs should be leaned on in close start/sit decisions thanks to their status as 7.5-point home favorites.

RB34 Bill Croskey-Merritt and RB36 Austin Ekeler: There's a similar sentiment here as with Denver thanks to the reality that both Bill and Ekeler are expected to see double-digit touches inside a reigning top-10 scoring offense ahead of a spot that features them as six-point home favorites. That said, this Giants defensive line has the potential to be scary good, and it's possible Chris Rodriguez turns this into a dreaded three-headed committee. My chip is on the team's training camp Hall of Famer for now.

RB37 Dylan Sampson: Should be THE starting running back, y'all, in Cleveland as long as Quinshon Judkins remains un-signed/not suspended if Week 3 preseason usage means anything. Like with Flacco, this means more in a potential shootout against the Bengals' sad excuse for a professional defense. Don't be surprised if Sampson is on the cover of Week 2 waiver wire articles, although he might have some competition from our next RB.

RB41 Ollie Gordon: Tentatively expected to work as the second banana behind only De'Von Achane (calf) as long as Jaylen Wright (lower body) remains sidelined. Gordon was quite awesome during the preseason and has a fairly clear path to the sort of early-down/goal-line role that helped Raheem Mostert score a ridiculous 21 TDs back in 2023. I'm not trying to actively start Gordon this week if I can help it, but he's one of the better bench stashes out there at the moment.

Wide Receiver

Is Drake London poised for even bigger things in 2025?

Well, if you take London's average numbers in his three games with Michael Penix and multiply them by 17 … you get 221 targets, 125 receptions, 1,995 receiving yards, and 11 TDs. It's science!

But all Drake and Josh'ing around aside: London's "my ball" mentality and ability to win in tight spaces should lead to bigger and better things in year four alongside a QB who appQuareared more than willing to take chances during his brief time under center last season. We can't ignore the reality that Darnell Mooney actually out-gained London in total receiving yards during the first 14 weeks of last season, but hey, both were still productive enough to be inside the league's top nine during that stretch anyway.

Top-eight status feels more than fair for London at the moment based on what he accomplished in 2024; just realize there's a chance we're looking at a legit top-five fantasy WR sooner rather than later should Penix again prove willing to force feed his No. 1 WR well ahead of everyone else.

Should we trust Xavier Worthy no matter what while Rashee Rice is suspended?

Short answer: Yes. Worthy deserves credit for averaging a robust 17.1 PPR points per game (WR15) from Weeks 11-Super Bowl. Sure, his decrease in aDOT (11.9 vs. 7.5) reflects the potential for some of these opportunities to dry up when Rashee Rice is available … but that won't be until Week 7.

Clearly the Chiefs figured out a good way to get Worthy involved in the underneath areas of the field down the stretch last season … what's the ceiling here if Patrick f*cking Mahomes manages to get on a better page with his 22-year-old WR, who is kinda sorta the fastest man in league history, in case you forgot.

Moral of the story: Worthy flashed to a high level in year one and continues to project for triple-digit opportunities inside what has usually been one of the league's best offenses thanks to having the game's best QB under center. That should be an archetype we seek out in fantasy land—especially while he faces next to zero target competition in his own WR room.

Death, taxes, start WRs playing the Bengals?

That's what I'm thinking. Kudos to the organization for finally getting something done with stud EDGE Trey Hendrickson, but even the presence of the NFL's sack leader didn't prevent the Bengals from allowing the league's fourth-most passing TDs last season.

This brings us to Jerry Jeudy, whose breakout 2024 campaign featured a blistering 90-1,229-4 receiving line and one of the best revenge games any of us will ever see. Kudos to the Bengals for holding Jeudy to lowly 1-18-0 and 2-20-0 receiving lines during his two matchups against them last season, although those came with Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting.

Look, Jeudy's big-time end to 2024 was definitely influenced by Jameis Winston being one of God's greatest gifts to fantasy, and his primary target competition largely all getting hurt also helped matters. Still, this matchup is salivating, and Flacco might be the next best thing to Jameis that fantasy has to offer. I'm trying to squeeze Jeudy into starting lineups of most shapes and sizes ahead of this potential smash spot.

Best of the rest

WR26 Jameson Williams: The Packers defense is suddenly quite a bit scarier due to the newfound presence of Micah Parsons, but that doesn't mean Jamo isn't capable of breaking open the game against a cornerback room that unironically has former WR Bo Melton in the two-deep. Williams is a boom-or-bust WR3 who I expect to do more of the former than the latter this season.

WR27 Marvin Harrison Jr.: Here's to hoping Kyler Murray and the 2024 NFL Draft's fourth overall pick are on a better page this season—putting together a quality Week 1 against the Saints' Marshon Lattimore-less secondary feels like a good spot to put together a great start, although I need to see it to believe it before overly trusting fantasy's reigning WR40 in PPR points per game. 

WR28 Ricky Pearsall: It remains to be seen if Jauan Jennings (calf/contract) will be out there, but even then: The artist known as Ricky Bullets profiles as Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan's likely No. 1 WR for as long as Brandon Aiyuk (knee, PUP) remains sidelined. Mike Macdonald's Seattle defense improved down the stretch last season; just realize Pearsall also flashed during the final two weeks of 2024 and should see more than enough volume to offer consistent WR2-3 goodness while Aiyuk remains sidelined.

WR32 Travis Hunter: Here's to hoping preseason projections of 80%-plus snaps on offense come to fruition for the 2025 NFL Draft's second overall pick. I'm being just a little cautious here to start, but a true full-time role on offense for the ultra-talented WR/CB hybrid could quickly lead to Hunter joining Brian Thomas inside the position's top-24 options. Week 1's matchup against the league's reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense helps matters in close start/sit decisions.

WR39 Deebo Samuel: Many have written off Deebo as washed … but if he's not? Look out, because that Jayden Daniels guy is awesome, and Kliff Kingsbury also loves feeding his playmakers fantasy-friendly screens. Throw in the possibility for more rushing work than expected, considering the loss of Brian Robinson, and this ranking could look low for Samuel by this time next week.

WR44 Josh Downs: Hopefully fully recovered from August's hamstring injury; Downs will be one of the more important players to watch on the injury report throughout the week. If healthy, it'll be important to quickly attempt to figure out Daniel Jones' preferred pecking order, as any of Downs, Michael Pittman, and TE Tyler Warren have the potential to shoot up the ranks should a true top dog emerge.

Tight End

Does T.J. Hockenson deserve the benefit of the doubt as a top-five TE?

I'm skeptical, but his early-season stretch could wind up being quite awesome. We're talking about the position's second-easiest month of September in terms of 2024 PPR points per game allowed to the position, and targets should be fairly easy to find during Jordan Addison's three-game suspension.

That said: Something closer to a run-first approach while J.J. McCarthy gets his feet wet at the NFL level would make sense, and the fantasy community has put a LOT of stock into Hockenson's breakout 2023 campaign … which sure seemed to be heavily influenced by Justin Jefferson missing time.

Hockenson 2023 numbers with and without Jefferson:

• Per-game with Jefferson (seven games): 7.1 targets, 53.6 yards, 12.8 PPR points
• Without (eight games): 9.6 targets, 73.1 yards, 16.4 PPR points

If you drafted Hockenson, you're starting him, but I think the real big-time winner in September could be Mark Andrews for however long Isaiah Likely (foot) remains out of the picture.

How early is too early to trust these first-round rookies?

Obviously Week 1 starting treatment is on the table since I have both ranked inside the position's top 12, although it's certainly easier to feel good about Mr. Tyler Warren thanks to the absence of a Cole Kmet-esque TE2. We saw Warren handle an every-down role during the preseason, and Colts coaches apparently believe a Brock Bowers-level workload is on the table here.

Now, I understand it feels ridiculous to worry about "Cole Kmet" when discussing a top-10 talent like Colston Loveland, but this is the league's eighth-highest paid TE we're talking about here. Head coach Ben Johnson apparently called Kmet immediately after the Loveland selection with his vision for the offense—there's potential here for an annoying Dalton Kincaid-Dawson Knox sort of situation where the incumbent veteran is just involved enough to prevent true fantasy fireworks from the younger and more intriguing option.

Or maybe I'm overthinking it and Loveland simply balls out from the start. We'll find out soon!

Best of the rest

TE16 Kyle Pitts: Wouldn't it be the most Kyle Pitts thing ever for him to finally ball the hell out the very season that the fantasy community finally threw the towel in on him? Well, a matchup with a Buccaneers defense that he torched for 7-88-0 and 4-91-2 receiving lines last season feels like a good start. At a minimum, I like the idea of keeping Pitts on the fantasy bench in the hope of being able to flip him to a thirsty truther should he manage to put together a solid Week 1.

TE17 Zach Ertz: Fantasy's reigning TE10 in PPR points per game has (again) been written off ahead of 2025 because, I mean look at him, he's old! That said: There's still weekly eight-plus target upside here in an offense we otherwise love—friendly reminder that Ertz caught 11 of 16 (!) targets for 104 scoreless yards in the NFC Championship the last time we saw him play.

TE21 Mike Gesicki: Seemingly healthy from an August hamstring injury. The Bengals #paid the longtime glorified slot receiver this offseason, giving credence to the idea that more of a full-time role could be on the way. The presence of Tanner Hudson and Noah Fant could complicate this pipe dream; just realize Gesicki profiles as someone that fantasy snap count nerds will be awfully excited about come Week 2 if we see a near every-down role emerge in arguably the most fantasy-friendly passing game in the league.

TE22 Juwan Johnson: Similar to Gesicki: Johnson got the bad this offseason, yet never really gained too much steam in fantasy land. Unlike Gesicki, Johnson doesn't have what the kids would call a good QB under center, so it's tougher to get behind a true upside scenario. Still, I've always been a fan of Johnson's receiving-friendly skill set and am intrigued by the idea of him finally handling a full-time job with Foster Moreau (knee, PUP) and Taysom Hill (knee, PUP) out of the picture for the foreseeable future.

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