Chris Allen analyzes the how NFL teams with more dome games could be primed for more offensive success.

The NFL is trying to put me out of business.

I say that mostly in jest. Usually, I’d be spending the offseason taking a deep data dive to guide you through what matters with bad weather games. TL;DR—avoid the extreme conditions. Anyway, if you wanted to know the windspeed at the kickoff of Cincinnati’s Week 17 OT win over Denver, I’m your guy (8 mph out of the south). But now, there’s so much fanfare around the schedule release I’ve got extra topics to research before we get back to the action. So, if anything, it’s been the opposite. 

However, imagine my shock when I hear of new stadiums with domes coming. Chicago and Cleveland are shielding their players from the elements. It’s football! Still, as a fantasy manager, I’m not that upset. Setting lineups is hard enough without having to factor in wind, rain, or snow. So, I found QBs with the most games inside to serve as a potential tiebreaker if you’re waffling in drafts.

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How Weather Impacts Fantasy Football

I’ve been looking into the impacts of the elements on fantasy football for a while. Mostly to dispel my preconceived notions. Anecdotally, we’ve all been there. You see a stadium covered in snow before kickoff, and you want to yank everyone from your lineup except for the RBs. But I’ve picked up a few kernels along the way.

1. Midseason is when weather starts to influence your roster decisions

I’ll caveat this with common sense. If there’s a tropical storm over Florida minutes before the start of the Jaguars’ game, look at your other options. Otherwise, let the teams tell you who your starters should be.

We have so little information about workloads, team tendencies, and coaching effectiveness. Factoring in a 15-mph wind to our process adds too much complexity. Plus, the conditions worth contemplating typically don’t occur until the middle of the year.

Yes, we’ll see some rain or wind here or there. But focusing on who’s earning targets, air yards, and touches early in the season is what puts us on league-winners.

2. True weather impacts more commonly occur in extreme conditions

Bad weather doesn’t mean the worst weather. 

A windy game doesn’t equate to tornado-like air speeds. Buffalo doesn’t have to dig out Highmark Stadium every time it snows (well, maybe they do). Either way, the extremes aren’t the norm. More importantly, poor conditions aren’t as influential as most would assume.

Every QB has their style. Accordingly, a gusty day or heavy precipitation affects them differently. As such, projecting a significant drop would be hasty. Check their mobility and supporting cast beforehand.

3. Bet on talent

Based on the study I conducted, Josh Allen played in four games with windspeeds over 20 mph. He averaged 23.9 FPPG across those outings. However, let’s be real. You weren’t benching Josh Allen—wait, you weren’t, right?. Maybe you waffled a bit before lock. I’ve been there. Anyway, I’m here to say if you invested in an elite QB, you should treat them like one.

Great QBs find ways to stay great. The current MVP has his legs to complement his arm. Other high-end QBs in the 2011-22 sample had different attributes, making them QB1s. And they all came through in rain, sleet, or snow. However, if you’ve snagged a guy off the wire or a passer with obvious warts and the forecast isn’t favorable, try looking elsewhere.

Quarterbacks Staying Inside in 2025

Sam Darnold, Seahawks (3 games)

Sam Darnold should be thanking the schedule makers. He’ll be second amongst all QBs in games played inside a dome at three. However, before drawing up plans to draft the former Viking, his situation puts a damper on the fair conditions.

Seattle has ranked in the bottom half of the league in time to pressure allowed and pressure rate in two straight seasons. Put another way, the line has put the QB under duress quickly and often. Admittedly, injuries have been the main issue. But we’ve seen only one season of solid play out of Darnold. And when Minnesota’s line broke down, he slid back to league-average play.

• Passing Success Rate: 11th 
• EPA per Dropback (under pressure): 16th 
• Sack Rate: 17th

To be clear, for Darnold, operating at the league average is good! But when you factor in going from a Jefferson-Addison duo to JSN-Kupp, along with the health of his protection, where the games happen falls down the list of priorities. Regardless, if the line gels and Darnold gets in sync with his WRs, those two dome games in the playoffs (Weeks 15 and 16) will make him an interesting flier in 2025.

Cam Ward, Titans (4 games)

On the bright side, Cam Ward will have a similar experience as Sam Darnold. This year’s 1.01 gets the benefit of playing indoors in four games. To go with being in a dome over half the season, best ball drafters should note that his Week 17 matchup will also be inside (at Saints). But, like we did with Darnold, let’s consider Ward’s situation.

• YPRR rank (out of 80 WRs—min. 50.0% route rate): 26th (Ridley), 64th (Lockett), 79th (Jefferson)
• YAC per Reception: 50th, 69th, 57th 
• Explosive Play Rate: 24th, 20th, 75th

The Titans have saddled their rookie QB with two WRs over 30 and Van Jefferson, who will be 29 by the start of the season. Their line is returning three of the five starters who got Will Levis hit 6.3 times per game. So, even with the optimal conditions, Ward would be a tough start without seeing proof of concept on the field first.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (4 games)

Before you roll your eyes at the mention of Trevor Lawrence, I want to let you know I understand.

He’s QB19 over on Underdog Fantasy for a reason. Even before his shoulder sprain and concussion cut his season short, he was barely treading water as a middle-class QB. So, I won’t use any of his stats to prop him up. His WR1 can do that just fine. 

Remember those three metrics I used to compare Cam Ward’s WRs? Brian Thomas Jr. ranked inside the Top 10 in two of the three. He had more TDs (10) than the trio of Titans receivers combined (8). A full season with Thomas should make anyone feel better about the QB throwing the ball to him. But Jacksonville’s first-round pick should put them over the top.

Allowing Travis Hunter to operate as the team’s WR2 gives him top-20 consideration before we even get to Week 1. Now, we can layer in the Jaguars’ four games inside. Now, Trevor Lawrence in Lucas Oil Stadium during Week 17 throwing darts to Thomas and Hunter has more appeal. I’ll be adding more Jags’ stacks to my portfolio now.

Others to note: Geno Smith (12 games), Justin Herbert (11), Dak Prescott (10)

Best Playoff Schedules (Weeks 15-17)

C.J. Stroud, Texans (3 games)

On the one hand, seeing C.J. Stroud play host to the Cardinals and Raiders to kick off the fantasy playoffs has me intrigued. It’s not that suboptimal conditions have hampered his production. He’s yet to play in a game with windspeeds over 15 mph. But both contests have competent passers on the opposing team. We’ve got shootout potential here. And then I look back at Stroud’s 2024 campaign.

• Pressure Rate: 37.9%, 8th-highest
• Hits per Game: 6.4, 5th-most
• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 22.1%, 9th-highest

Sure, Houston sent Laremy Tunsil packing. But his placement, Cam Robinson, gave up the second-most pressures among all tackles last season. The rest of Stroud’s protection unit was on the team in ’24. Without seeing an improvement in pass blocking, staying indoors could be the least of our worries for the Texans’ offense this year.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (2 games)

Before we get to any weather-related analysis, let’s address the elephant in the room.

Kyler Murray’s rapport (or lack thereof) with Marvin Harrison Jr. was a detriment to their first year together. But we did see Harrison’s slot rate start to pick up toward the end of year, indicating more diversity in his routes. In addition, his air yards per target ticked down. Meanwhile, Murray has addressed the funk that plagued 2024, praising the rookie for his development.

As a result, I’m willing to bet on the triumvirate of Murray, Harrison, and Trey McBride providing lift to the Cardinals’ offense (get it? Cardinals are birds, and you need lift to—nevermind). Couple optimism with two dome games to start the playoffs, and betting on Murray to bring you a championship isn’t too far-fetched of a notion.

Others to note: Jared Goff (3), Michael Penix Jr. (2 games), Dak Prescott (2),  Matthew Stafford (2), Justin Herbert (2), J.J. McCarthy (2)

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