About five years ago, I met a guy in his 50s who had been in the same fantasy league since the 1990s … and they still used TD-only scoring.

Amazing.

I asked him why they never updated the scoring system, and he gave me three main reasons.

• They wanted to keep what they were used to.
• They liked the simplicity.
• They figured that TDs are all that matter anyway.

I remember thinking, "These guys are cavemen. Yards are what matter since they lead to TDs."

Anyway … I'm looking at my season-long player projections for RBs, and I just ran a correlation between projected 0.5 PPR fantasy points and projected TDs.

Keep in mind, these RB projections take yardage and receptions into account. Even so, the correlation between projected fantasy points and projected TDs is … strong.

In the words of Ben Stiller: "I'd say strong to quite strong."

For you stat nerds: The coefficient of correlation (R) is 0.984, and the coefficient of determination (R squared) is 0.968.

What does that mean?

It means this: Across the entire sample of my RB data set, 96.8% of my fantasy point projections can be explained by my TD projections.

Translation: The 50-year-old dudes who still use TD-only scoring are basically right.

TDs aren't the only thing that matters—but if your RBs score a lot of TDs, they'll also probably have a lot of yards and thus fantasy points.

Implication: If you have multiple RBs with 10+ TDs on your roster, you'll have an enhanced chance of winning your league.

With that in mind, here are the 11 RBs I have projected for 10+ TDs this season (in order from least to most).

To access my projections and 2025 fantasy draft rankings) use the promo code "FREEDMAN" for a 20% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

RBs With 2025 Projections of 10+ TDs

A quick note: These are median projections and thus relatively conservative, but there are always several guys who massively outperform.

For example: Here are the NFL TD leaders since 2020.

• 2024: Jahmyr Gibbs—20
• 2023: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert—21
• 2022: Austin Ekeler—18
• 2021: Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor—20
• 2020: Alvin Kamara—21

 It would be a surprise if the leading scorer this year didn't have at least 18 TDs.

 I know that.

And yet the highest TD total I have projected is 13.9.

That's just how projections are.

OK, let's get to the RBs, with their 0.5 PPR projections and their consensus average draft positions (via our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).

James Cook, Bills: 10.1 TDs

• ADP: 35.1 (RB13)
• Projection: 199.9 (RB16)

I think James Cook is fairly priced. Last year he went off with 18 TDs … but the year before that he had only 6.

Cook is a great player, evidenced by his 2,834 scrimmage yards over the past two years, but he's in a three-man backfield committee, and QB Josh Allen will steal goal-line work (27 TDs rushing since 2023).

Cook's TD floor is solid, but he honestly might be projected near his scoring ceiling.

David Montgomery, Lions: 10.4 TDs

• ADP: 61.6 (RB21)
• Projection: 183.5 (RB19)

David Montgomery has 1,000+ yards in all six of his NFL seasons, and in his two years with the Lions, he has 25 TDs in 28 games. 

He might lose some goal-line work to Gibbs this year, but I still like Montgomery as a Zero RB candidate.

Kenneth Walker, Seahawks: 10.4 TDs

• ADP: 42.1 (RB15)
• Projection: 199.4 (RB17)

Kenneth Walker III has yet to score double-digit TDs in the NFL, and we'll need to see how new OC Klint Kubiak decides to split the work between Walker and No. 2 RB Zach Charbonnet (a good player in his own right).

But Walker's 2024 progression as a pass catcher should result in extra 2025 opportunities—and I expect those to lead to more TDs.

He's reasonably priced as a mid-tier RB2.

Josh Jacobs, Packers: 10.5 TDs

• ADP: 19.3 (RB8)
• Projection: 219.2 (RB9)

In three of six seasons, Jacobs has had 12+ TDs. Last year he had a career-high 16.

He's never had fewer than 269 opportunities (carries plus targets) or 1,101 scrimmage yards in a campaign—and over the past three years he's averaged 345 opportunities for 1,608.3 yards per season.

He's the No. 1 RB in a good Packers offense. As long as Jacobs gets his touches, the TDs will likely come.

Bijan Robinson, Falcons: 11.1 TDs

• ADP: 3.0 (RB1)
• Projection: 261.8 (RB2)

Last year, Robinson was the No. 2 RB with a 91 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

There are a number of great RBs in the NFL right now … but Robinson might be the best, and he's still just 23 years old.

As good as he was last year (1,887 yards, 15 TDs), he could be even better this year.

Saquon Barkley, Eagles: 11.9 TDs

• ADP: 3.5 (RB2)
• Projection: 244.8 (RB5)

Barkley had an emphatic OPOY performance last season with a league-high 378 touches and 2,283 yards, which he leveraged into a career-best 15 TDs.

He has had 10+ TDs in each of his seasons with at least 14 games played.

But last year, 11 of his TDs came from more than 10 yards out. That's simply unsustainable.

As long as the Eagles offense produces at a high level, Barkley will have a good chance to get double-digit scores, yet his ceiling will likely be capped by the "Tush Push" ability of QB Jalen Hurts, who has 52 TDs rushing in his four seasons as a starter, and last year was No. 3 in the league with 18 carries inside the 5-yard line.

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: 12.1 TDs

• ADP: 10.4 (RB4)
• Projection: 265.8 (RB1)

 I've talked about McCaffrey recently in a number of places.

• The first episode of the Talk Data to Me (a new Fantasy Life pod with Dwain McFarland)
• This past week's ADP report
• A recent Fantasy Life Show, where Dwain and I discuss our projection differences
• Social media

McCaffrey disappointed last year with his knee injury, but he is fully healthy now and has participated in all phases of the team's offseason and preseason programs.

With that in mind, I think the odds of an in-season injury for him aren't significantly higher than those for any of the other RBs with comparable ADPs—and just a year ago he was the No. 1 overall pick in most leagues.

With the 49ers, McCaffrey has 31 TDs in 31 games, and last year—without the benefit of preseason training—he had 281 yards on 43 carries and 16 targets in his three full games with an 88 Utilization Score.

Especially given how uncertain the team's WR room is, I expect the offense to flow through the backfield.

I admit it's aggressive, but I'm comfortable having McCaffrey projected as the No. 1 RB in fantasy.

De'Von Achane, Dolphins: 12.2 TDs

• ADP: 10.4 (RB4)
• Projection: 265.8 (RB1)

Achane has double-digit TDs in both of his NFL seasons. And last year specifically he had 1,151 yards and 11 TDs in his 11 games with QB Tua Tagovailoa.  

Achane has a real shot to finish as the No. 1 RB.

  Derrick Henry, Ravens: 12.9 TDs

• ADP: 11.7 (RB6)
• Projection: 234.6 (RB6)

Ever since his 2018 breakout, Henry has 100 TDs in 105 games with 10+ scores in every season.

And last year, in his first campaign with the Ravens, he went off with a career-high 18.

Even at the age of 31 years old, Henry will likely once again perform like a Terminator in 2025.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions: 12.9 TDs

• ADP: 4.9 (RB3)
• Projection: 247.5 (RB4)

Despite sharing the backfield with No. 2 RB David Montgomery, Gibbs has 31 TDs in 32 games—and he could be even more dominant in 2025: He's just 23 years old, and he might get more work in general (and at the goal line in particular) with new OC John Morton.

Remember CMC as a 23-year-old third-year first-team All-Pro superstar? 2,392 yards and 19 TDs—that could be Gibbs this season.

Kyren Williams, Rams: 13.9 TDs

• ADP: 26.2 (RB11)
• Projection: 230.3 (RB7)

Here he is: My highest-projected TD scorer for the 2025 season!

On the one hand, this feels surprising: Most people don't think of Williams as a great player—especially because he was inefficient this season (4.1 yards per carry, 4.2 yards per target).

And he's relatively small (5-foot-9, 202 pounds), so he doesn't have the look of a strong goal-line back.

But on the other hand: Last year he set NFL-high marks with 19 carries and 12 TDs inside the 5-yard line.

And in his two seasons as a starter, he has 31 TDs (as well as 2,831 yards) in 28 games.

As long as Williams is able to hold off backups Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter, I don't see any reason he shouldn't have similar production in 2025.

Translation: At his ADP, Williams feels cheap.

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